ADM·Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Realized volatility (21d)

27.6% 73rd pct

Below its peak

-15.1%

vs 200-day average

+11.2%

Up days (1y)

52%

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is currently running 27.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ADM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 73rd percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 22.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ADM is trading -15.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -21.6%, and the deepest was -36.6% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +11.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 75th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year ADM closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, ADM finished the month higher 8 of 14 times, with a median return of +2.1% and an average of +2.1%. Its strongest month historically has been March at +3.7% on average, its weakest November at -1.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ADM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 84 of 3,267 sessions (2.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.8% and -5.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, ADM moved an average of 1.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.0% and a largest of -2.1%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ADM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.