AES·The AES Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

2.8% 0th pct

Below its peak

-49.1%

vs 200-day average

+1.4%

Up days (1y)

49%

The AES Corporation is currently running 2.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AES's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 0th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 27.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AES is trading -49.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -23.7%, and the deepest was -56.4% in 2023. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +1.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 54th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year AES closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, AES finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +4.9% and an average of +1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been March at +3.9% on average, its weakest January at -2.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AES has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 153 of 3,266 sessions (4.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.7% and -9.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AES's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.