AOS·A. O. Smith Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

21.4% 40th pct

Below its peak

-37.3%

vs 200-day average

-9.6%

Up days (1y)

49%

A. O. Smith Corporation is currently running 21.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AOS's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 40th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AOS is trading -37.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -18.4%, and the deepest was -43.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -9.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 17th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year AOS closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, AOS finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +5.6% and an average of +2.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.5% on average, its weakest September at -1.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AOS has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 129 of 3,265 sessions (4.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.5% and -11.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, AOS moved an average of 1.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -1.1% and a largest of -2.4%.

All figures computed from 3,266 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AOS's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.