ASTS·AST SpaceMobile Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

73.4% 34th pct

Below its peak

-64.1%

vs 200-day average

-41.6%

Up days (1y)

49%

AST SpaceMobile Inc. is currently running 73.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ASTS's own 7 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 34th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 86.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ASTS is trading -64.1% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -60.1%, and the deepest was -74.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -41.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 3rd percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year ASTS closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 7 years of records, ASTS finished the month higher 4 of 7 times, with a median return of +0.6% and an average of +3.0%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +54.4% on average, its weakest April at -7.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ASTS has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 321 of 1,673 sessions (19.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +21.7% and -13.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, ASTS moved an average of 3.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +3.9% and a largest of +5.3%.

All figures computed from 1,676 daily closes between 2019-11-01 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ASTS's own 7-year history, not a peer group or index.