ATO·Atmos Energy Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

10.2% 5th pct

Below its peak

-14.7%

vs 200-day average

-5.9%

Up days (1y)

51%

Atmos Energy Corporation is currently running 10.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ATO's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 5th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 16.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ATO is trading -14.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -12.7%, and the deepest was -33.2% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -5.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 8th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year ATO closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, ATO finished the month higher 11 of 14 times, with a median return of +2.3% and an average of +3.0%. Its strongest month historically has been March at +3.6% on average, its weakest September at -2.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ATO has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 50 of 3,268 sessions (1.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.6% and -6.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-16 and 2026-10-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ATO's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.