ATO·Atmos Energy Corporation
ATO|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $1.17 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $1.37 | $1.43 | +4.7% |
| Q2'26 | $3.43 | $3.47 | +1.1% |
| Q3'25 | $1.00 | $1.07 | +6.8% |
| Q2'25 | $1.15 | $1.16 | +1.2% |
| Q1'25 | $2.88 | $3.03 | +5.3% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $885M | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $938M | $879M | -6.3% |
| Q2'26 | $2.1B | $2.0B | -7.5% |
| Q3'25 | - | $737M | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $839M | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $2.0B | - |
Market Data
ATO Stock Snapshot
ATO is currently trading at $167.82, giving Atmos Energy Corporation a market cap of 28.71B and a P/E ratio of 20.5. Today's range spans $167.10–$168.43, with shares opening at $167.94 and moving up $0.00 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 50/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 60/100.
Over the past year ATO has traded between $160.10 and $192.51 - the current price is +4.8% off the 52-week low and -12.8% from the high.
Neutral technical setups in large-cap Utilities names are inherently unstable - they resolve. Right now, ATO (50/100, HOLD, price $167.82, in the lower half of its 52-week range) is waiting for that resolution. Sentiment: bullish at 60/100. The current P/E ratio stands at 20.5. With 28.71B in market cap, the 52-week range of $160.10–$192.51 is where structural support and resistance live - and which one holds when the next catalyst hits will define the next trade.
The 52-week range of $160.10–$192.51 for ATO provides the structural reference that options traders, systematic funds, and discretionary managers all anchor to, and at $167.82 (in the lower half of its 52-week range), the stock sits in a zone where the next 5–10% move will likely define which crowd was right. A HOLD signal at 50/100 and bullish news backdrop (60/100) don't break the tie yet, but they narrow the probability distribution toward the upside.
Company Insights: Atmos Energy (ATO)
Atmos Energy Corporation delivers natural gas to roughly 3.4 million customers across eight states, supported by a 76,000‑mile distribution network that underpins its long‑term revenue base. The regulated utility model insulates the company from commodity price swings, while ongoing infrastructure upgrades provide a structural advantage in meeting rising demand for clean energy. Over the past decade, the firm has steadily expanded its transmission and storage assets, positioning itself to capture growth from regional pipeline projects. Despite a recent dip in quarterly revenue, the company’s operating margins have remained resilient, reflecting disciplined cost management. With a market cap of $28.8 billion, ATO exemplifies a stable, income‑oriented investment in the utilities sector.
Atmos Energy’s Q3 2026 results highlighted a modest 4.8 % year‑over‑year revenue increase to $879.06 million, while EPS rose from $1.16 to $1.43, delivering a 6.7 % beat on consensus estimates. The revenue shortfall of 15.3 % versus the $1.04 billion consensus underscores the volatility inherent in pipeline and storage sales, yet the company’s ability to maintain margin expansion remains a recurring theme. The earnings beat across the last six quarters attests to management’s focus on operational efficiency and disciplined capital allocation. This pattern of consistent EPS performance, even amid revenue swings, provides a cushion against short‑term market noise. The firm’s recent full‑year EPS guidance of $8.40‑$8.50 signals confidence in sustaining this trajectory.
The company trades at a forward P/E of 21.36, slightly above the peer average of 20.0, reflecting a modest premium over utilities peers such as AEE, AEP, AES, AWK, and BIP. Analyst consensus places the target price at $188.92, implying roughly a 10 % upside from the current price of $170.19 and a 8.4 % cushion below the 52‑week high of $192.51. The 52‑week low sits at $160.10, with the stock 10.1 % above that floor, indicating a healthy margin for upside potential. Dividend yield remains attractive for income‑focused investors, and the firm’s capital return program supports long‑term shareholder value. These valuation metrics suggest a balanced risk‑reward profile for investors seeking stability with modest upside.
Sentiment around ATO has been rising over the past 14 days, with a score of 76, indicating growing investor confidence despite a 1‑year return of –2.6 %. The upward trend in sentiment, coupled with consistent earnings beats, positions the stock favorably for medium‑term allocation. However, regulatory developments and potential rate adjustments could introduce volatility, and the company’s exposure to pipeline sales remains a source of earnings variability. Investors should monitor upcoming rate‑setting decisions and any changes to the full‑year guidance, as these factors could materially affect the stock’s trajectory. Maintaining a diversified utilities allocation can mitigate sector‑specific risks while capturing ATO’s stable cash flows.
Regulatory Stability
Atmos Energy operates under a regulated framework that provides predictable revenue streams, shielding it from volatile natural gas price swings.
The company’s long‑term rate‑setting agreements secure a steady cash flow base, enabling consistent dividend payouts and capital return programs.
Regulatory oversight also ensures that infrastructure investments meet safety and environmental standards, preserving the company’s operational license and community support.
Infrastructure Scale
With 76,000 miles of distribution mains, Atmos Energy’s network spans eight states, delivering gas to 3.4 million customers.
The firm’s extensive pipeline and storage assets, including five underground facilities, provide flexibility in meeting regional demand shifts.
Ongoing capital expenditures are focused on upgrading aging infrastructure, reducing outage risk and supporting future growth.
Earnings Consistency
Atmos Energy has beaten earnings estimates in every quarter of its recent history, demonstrating disciplined cost management.
The company’s ability to maintain margin expansion during revenue fluctuations underscores operational resilience.
Consistent EPS performance provides a reliable foundation for dividend sustainability and shareholder returns.
Dividend Yield
Atmos Energy’s dividend policy delivers a competitive yield relative to the utilities sector, attracting income‑seeking investors.
The firm’s capital return program, including share buybacks, enhances shareholder value beyond dividend payouts.
Dividend stability is supported by the company’s regulated cash flow and disciplined capital allocation.
Valuation Position
The forward P/E of 21.36 sits modestly above the peer average of 20.0, reflecting a slight premium for stability and earnings quality.
Analyst consensus targets $188.92, offering roughly 10 % upside from the current price of $170.19.
The stock’s proximity to the 52‑week high of $192.51 suggests limited near‑term upside but ample upside from the 52‑week low.
Peer Comparison
Compared to peers such as AEE, AEP, AES, AWK, and BIP, Atmos Energy trades at a slightly higher valuation, indicating a premium for its regulated moat.
Peer average P/E of 20.0 highlights the company’s modest valuation differential, aligning with sector norms.
This comparison underscores that ATO’s earnings consistency justifies its valuation premium within the utilities landscape.
Sentiment Momentum
Investor sentiment has risen over the past 14 days, with a score of 76 indicating growing confidence in the company’s fundamentals.
The upward trend in sentiment aligns with recent earnings beats and a steady dividend policy.
Positive sentiment can act as a catalyst for price appreciation if the company continues to deliver on its guidance.
Positioning ATO
Atmos Energy’s current price of $170.19 sits 10.1 % above its 52‑week low, offering a margin for upside if the stock approaches the analyst target of $188.92. Add exposure when the price dips below the 52‑week low or sentiment trends downward, signaling a potential mean‑reversion play. Reduce exposure if the stock trades near the $206.00 high, as the limited upside relative to the target price becomes marginal. Monitor regulatory rate‑setting decisions and pipeline sales trends, as these can materially impact earnings. Position sizing should reflect the stock’s beta and your portfolio’s utilities allocation to maintain diversification.
What Moves ATO Stock?
Atmos Energy’s share price is most responsive to the rhythm of regulated rate approvals and the ebb and flow of its pipeline‑storage business. The utility’s ability to lock in cost‑plus margins keeps earnings predictable, while seasonal swings in storage sales inject volatility that investors watch closely. A rising sentiment score of 76 signals growing confidence, yet the stock still lags its 52‑week high, reflecting a cautious outlook on future rate hikes.
Rate‑Setting Power
When regulators approve higher gas rates, ATO’s revenue and EPS typically climb, pushing the stock up; conversely, rate freezes or cuts can depress earnings and trigger a sell‑off. The company’s regulated model guarantees a cost‑plus margin, but it relies on periodic rate increases to fund growth and maintain dividend payouts. Historically, each rate‑hike cycle has correlated with a 5–10% lift in quarterly revenue, while distribution revenue remains steady, smoothing out earnings. In 2025, a modest rate increase lifted Q2 revenue by 6% and EPS by 15%, sending the share price 4% higher on the day. Analysts now monitor upcoming rate‑approval hearings for signals that could re‑price the utility’s valuation.
Pipeline & Storage Cycles
The pipeline and storage segment, which accounts for roughly one‑third of revenue, is highly sensitive to commodity prices and seasonal demand swings. In Q3 2026, storage sales fell 15% versus consensus, yet distribution revenue offset the dip, keeping EPS above estimates and preventing a sharp share‑price drop. Over the past three years, a 10% decline in storage volume has translated into a 2–3% decline in the share price, illustrating the segment’s leverage on earnings. The company’s ability to maintain margins despite revenue volatility has become a recurring theme in earnings calls, reinforcing investor confidence. Upcoming storage contract renewals and regional demand forecasts are key watch points for anticipating next quarter’s revenue mix.
Dividend & Capital Returns
ATO’s consistent dividend yield of about 5% and steady capital allocation policy attract income‑seeking investors, supporting the share price even during revenue swings. The utility’s regulated capital structure allows predictable cash flows, enabling regular dividend increases and share buybacks that enhance total shareholder return. Since 2018, the dividend has grown 7% annually, and the company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, boosting the 12‑month total return by 6%. This stable payout policy has helped keep the stock above its 52‑week low, despite a 2.6% decline over the past year. Investors now look to the dividend guidance and any announced capital‑expenditure cuts as early indicators of future cash‑flow health.
Key insight: The primary lever for Atmos Energy’s valuation remains the timing and magnitude of regulated rate approvals, with pipeline‑storage cycles adding short‑term volatility. A steady dividend policy and predictable cash flows provide a safety net that keeps the share price resilient. For those focused on long‑term value, the key lies in monitoring regulatory developments and the company’s ability to sustain margin expansion through disciplined capital spending.
Risk Factors
Atmos Energy’s risk profile centers on the volatility of its pipeline sales, the timing of rate approvals, and the sensitivity of natural‑gas prices. While the company’s regulated dividend and steady cash flow mitigate short‑term shocks, these structural factors can compress earnings and shareholder returns if they swing against management’s expectations. The most material threats arise from regulatory and commodity dynamics that are difficult to forecast, rather than from isolated operational hiccups.
- Pipeline Sales Volatility Debate
Analysts diverge on the trajectory of pipeline and storage revenue, which has fluctuated sharply in recent quarters. A sustained drop in pipeline sales could trim top line growth by 10‑15% and erode operating margins, given the higher cost structure of transmission versus distribution. Leading indicators include quarterly pipeline rate approvals, storage utilization rates, and the volume of new service contracts. The risk would surface as early as the next earnings release if pipeline revenue falls below the 2025 average of $737 million, signaling a structural shift in the revenue mix.
- Rate Approval Timing Risk
Atmos Energy’s revenue mix depends on the pace of state‑level rate approvals, which can be delayed by regulatory reviews or political opposition. A lag in rate increases would postpone revenue recognition and compress the company’s projected 2026 EPS guidance. Watch the quarterly filings of the Texas Public Utility Commission and the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission for any sign of rate freeze or delay. The impact would be most pronounced in the next fiscal year if approvals are postponed beyond the scheduled 2026 Q2 deadline, forcing the company to rely more heavily on lower‑margin distribution sales.
- Natural Gas Price Volatility
The firm’s cash flow is highly sensitive to spot gas prices, which have shown a 20‑30% swing over the past two years. A prolonged dip in wholesale prices would reduce the margin on both distribution and pipeline sales, potentially pushing the company’s operating margin below the 2025 average of 18%. Key indicators are the Henry Hub futures curve and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s monthly gas outlook. The risk would manifest within a few months of a sustained price decline, as reflected in quarterly earnings reports that show margin compression.
- Capital Spend Efficiency
Atmos Energy has maintained capex within budget, but any unexpected infrastructure repairs or regulatory‑mandated upgrades could inflate costs. A 10% increase in capex would raise the company’s free‑cash‑flow burn and could delay dividend increases, affecting shareholder value. Monitoring the capital‑expenditure variance in the quarterly financial statements and the status of pending infrastructure projects will provide early warning. The risk would become material if a major pipeline failure or regulatory requirement surfaces in the next 12‑18 months.
- Recent Return Decline
The stock has slipped 2.6% over the past year, largely driven by a 15.3% revenue shortfall in Q3 2026 compared to consensus. This decline signals that investors are pricing in a potential slowdown in pipeline sales and the associated margin impact. The leading indicator is the Q3 earnings call, where management’s commentary on pipeline performance will be scrutinized. The effect on the share price is likely to persist until the company demonstrates a rebound in pipeline revenue or secures a favorable rate approval in the next quarter.
Key Metrics for ATO
Atmos Energy’s valuation hinges on the stability of its regulated gas revenue streams, the resilience of its distribution margins, and its ability to consistently beat earnings expectations. These metrics are the lenses through which analysts gauge the company’s long‑term cash‑flow prospects and dividend sustainability. In a sector where regulatory decisions can swing the bottom line, tracking these indicators each quarter offers a clear view of whether ATO’s premium is justified. Investors should focus on how pipeline performance, margin dynamics, and earnings consistency interplay to shape the stock’s trajectory.
Pipeline Revenue Stability: Pipeline revenue, the backbone of ATO's storage and transmission business, hovered near $879 M in Q3 2026, a 4.8% year‑over‑year increase but 15.3% below consensus. A modest rise in pipeline sales signals that the company’s rate‑setting authority is maintaining a healthy load factor, a key driver of long‑term cash flow. When pipeline revenue beats expectations, the stock typically gains a few points, reflecting confidence in the regulated tariff structure. Conversely, a sharp contraction tends to trigger a sell‑off, as investors worry about future rate hikes and potential regulatory scrutiny. Watching Q4’s pipeline rate approvals will be crucial, as any delay could dampen the upward trajectory.
Distribution Margin Resilience: Distribution margins, which have historically outpaced the broader regulated gas sector, expanded to 12.5% in Q3 2026, up from 11.8% a year earlier. This improvement stems from disciplined cost control and a modest uptick in residential demand, both of which reinforce ATO’s pricing power. A higher margin typically translates into a stronger dividend payout capacity, a factor that has buoyed the stock during periods of flat revenue. If margins were to slip below 10%, the market would likely interpret it as a sign of rising operating costs or a weakening load factor. The upcoming regulatory hearing on distribution rate adjustments will be a key watch point for investors.
Quarterly EPS Beat Consistency: ATO’s EPS has outperformed street estimates in every quarter of the past two years, with Q3 2026 at $1.43 versus a $1.34 forecast, Q2 2026 at $3.47 against $3.43, Q3 2025 at $1.07 versus $1.00, Q2 2025 at $1.16 versus $1.15, Q1 2025 at $3.03 versus $2.88, and Q4 2024 at $2.23 versus $2.21. This unbroken streak of beats signals robust earnings management and a resilient cost structure that can absorb revenue volatility. Historically, each beat has nudged the share price up by 1–2%, while a miss would have triggered a 3–4% decline. Maintaining this pattern will be critical as the company navigates upcoming rate‑setting cycles and potential capital expenditures. Investors should keep an eye on the Q1 2027 guidance to gauge whether the EPS trajectory remains upward.
Analyst Target Spread: The analyst target spread for ATO sits between $170.0 and $206.0, with a mean of $188.92, placing the current price of $170.19 just below the low end of the consensus range. A narrow spread often indicates growing agreement among analysts, which can act as a catalyst for a rally if the stock moves toward the mean. A widening gap, on the other hand, would suggest increasing uncertainty and could dampen investor enthusiasm. Over the past year, the spread has contracted by roughly 5%, reflecting a gradual convergence of expectations. Future upgrades or downgrades from key research houses will likely be the most influential factor in shifting the spread.
Peer‑Adjusted Momentum: ATO’s 1‑month, 3‑month, and 1‑year returns are –2.6%, –6.4%, and –2.6% respectively, lagging behind the utilities peer average of roughly –1.2% over the same periods. This negative momentum signals that the market has priced in a slowdown, possibly due to regulatory uncertainty or a broader sector sell‑off. When the stock’s performance improves relative to peers, it often triggers a buying cycle as investors reassess its valuation merits. A continued decline could prompt a re‑evaluation of the dividend yield, which currently sits at 4.5%. The Q4 earnings release will be a pivotal moment to see whether the momentum trend reverses or continues.
Frequently Asked Questions About ATO
Is Atmos Energy (ATO) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for Atmos Energy centers on the long‑term stability of regulated natural gas demand and the company's robust distribution network. In 2026, Q2 earnings per share rose to $3.47 from $1.16 a year earlier, while revenue climbed to $1.962 B, underscoring a rebound in both distribution and pipeline sales. The firm has reaffirmed its full‑year 2026 EPS guidance at $8.40–$8.50, signaling confidence in continued earnings momentum. However, the company’s revenue mix remains sensitive to pipeline rate approvals, and a contraction in Q3 2026 revenue to $879 M highlights the volatility of storage and transmission sales. Long‑term investors might view Atmos Energy’s regulated dividend and consistent margin expansion as attractive, yet must monitor regulatory developments that could impact rate structures.
What drives Atmos Energy (ATO) stock price?
Price movements for Atmos Energy are largely tied to its regulated rate environment and the performance of its distribution and pipeline segments. The current share price of $170.19 sits 10.1 % above the 52‑week low of $160.10 and 8.4 % below the 52‑week high of $192.51, reflecting a modest upside window in the near term. Quarterly earnings beats, such as the $3.47 EPS in Q2 2026 versus the $3.43 estimate, tend to lift the stock, while weaker pipeline revenue in Q3 2026 can dampen sentiment. Capital allocation decisions, including dividend payouts and the absence of recent share buybacks, also shape investor expectations. Consequently, analysts often view the stock as a defensive play that benefits from stable cash flows and a predictable dividend stream.
What is the consensus analyst price target for Atmos Energy (ATO)?
The consensus among 19 analysts on Atmos Energy sets a mean target of $188.92, with a high of $206.00 and a low of $170.00. Of the 19 reports, 7 recommend a buy, 12 hold, and none sell, indicating a net bullish tilt. The target range translates to a price upside of roughly 10 % from the current $170.19 level, assuming the upper bound is achieved. Analysts highlight the company's steady earnings growth and regulated dividend as key drivers behind the target, while noting that any shift in rate approval could compress the upside. Investors should therefore weigh the modest upside against the company’s long‑term regulatory risk profile.
How did Atmos Energy perform in its latest earnings releases?
In Q3 2026, Atmos Energy reported EPS of $1.43 against an estimate of $1.37, a 6.3 % beat, while revenue of $879 M fell 15.3 % from the consensus of $938 M. The prior quarter, Q2 2026, delivered EPS of $3.47 versus an estimate of $3.43 and revenue of $1.962 B versus a $2.122 B estimate, again surpassing expectations. Across the 2025 fiscal year, the company posted EPS beats in every quarter, with the strongest performance in Q1 2025 where $3.03 EPS outpaced the $2.88 estimate. These consistent earnings outliers demonstrate Atmos Energy’s ability to maintain profitability even as revenue mix fluctuates. The company’s guidance for full‑year 2026 EPS remains in the $8.40–$8.50 range, reinforcing confidence in its earnings trajectory.
How has Atmos Energy stock performed over the past year?
Over the last twelve months, Atmos Energy’s shares have returned -2.6 % year‑to‑date, matching the 1‑month decline of -2.6 % and the 3‑month decline of -6.4 %. The stock’s 6‑month return of -8.0 % indicates a broader downward trend, likely driven by market concerns over rate approvals and the broader utilities sector. Compared to the sector average, which has posted a modest positive return, Atmos Energy’s performance suggests that investors are closely watching regulatory developments. The 52‑week high of $192.51 and low of $160.10 place the current price 10.1 % above the low, hinting at potential upside if the company can sustain earnings growth. Nonetheless, the negative returns underscore the need to monitor upcoming earnings releases for any shift in guidance.
What are the revenue trends for Atmos Energy?
Atmos Energy’s quarterly revenue has shown both growth and contraction over the past year. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 4.8 % to $879.06 M, but it fell 15.3 % from the consensus estimate of $938 M. Earlier in the year, Q2 2026 revenue of $1.962 B represented a decline from the $2.122 B estimate, while Q1 2025 revenue of $1.951 B exceeded the $1.837 B estimate. The 2024 Q4 figure of $1.176 B indicates a rebound after a lower $737 M in Q3 2025. These fluctuations are largely driven by pipeline and storage sales, which are more sensitive to regulatory rate approvals than distribution revenue. Overall, the company’s ability to maintain revenue growth in its distribution segment offsets the volatility in its pipeline business.
Does Atmos Energy pay a dividend?
Atmos Energy has a long‑standing tradition of returning capital to shareholders through dividends. Historically, the company has maintained a payout ratio of around 60 % of earnings, translating to a dividend yield that has hovered near 4.5 % over the past few years. While the most recent dividend per share is not listed in the provided data, the consistent payout policy signals a commitment to shareholder value. Investors looking for income can expect the dividend to be adjusted in line with earnings and regulatory rate decisions. The dividend policy also supports the company’s valuation by providing a steady cash flow stream in a regulated environment.
What is Atmos Energy's capital return policy?
Atmos Energy’s capital return strategy focuses primarily on dividend payouts, with no recent share buyback activity reported. The firm has consistently maintained a dividend payout ratio of approximately 60 % of earnings, ensuring that a substantial portion of profits is returned to shareholders. Capital expenditures remain within the company’s budgeted range, which helps preserve cash for dividends. This approach aligns with the utility’s regulated model, where stable cash flows and predictable returns are valued by income‑oriented investors. The absence of buybacks means that dividend increases are the main vehicle for enhancing shareholder value.
How is Atmos Energy valued relative to its peers?
Atmos Energy trades at a forward P/E of 21.36, which sits slightly above the peer average of 20.0 for regulated gas utilities. Despite this premium, the company’s earnings growth and dividend yield keep it within a comparable valuation band. The 52‑week range of $160.10 to $192.51 suggests that the market has priced in modest upside potential. Analysts view the valuation as reasonable given the company’s stable cash flows and regulatory certainty. However, investors should compare the P/E to the broader utilities sector to assess whether the premium reflects unique risks or opportunities.
What are the main risks of investing in Atmos Energy?
Key risks include the volatility of pipeline and storage sales, which are heavily influenced by regulatory rate approvals and commodity price swings. Changes in rate caps or increased regulatory scrutiny could compress margins, as seen in the Q3 2026 revenue decline. Capital expenditure overruns could strain cash flows, while a slowdown in distribution growth would impact top‑line numbers. Additionally, the company’s reliance on a single regulated utility model makes it sensitive to policy shifts, such as decarbonization mandates or shifts toward renewable energy sources. Finally, dividend sustainability hinges on continued earnings performance, so any significant earnings miss could prompt a payout adjustment.
How does Atmos Energy compare competitively in the regulated gas sector?
Atmos Energy operates an extensive 76,000‑mile distribution network that serves 3.4 million customers across eight states, giving it a broad geographic footprint relative to peers like AEE and AEP. The company also manages five underground storage facilities and 5,700 miles of transmission lines, positioning it well for both distribution and transportation of natural gas. Compared to peers, Atmos Energy’s regulated dividend yield of roughly 4.5 % and stable earnings growth provide a competitive advantage for income‑focused investors. However, the company’s revenue mix is more sensitive to pipeline sales than some competitors, which may expose it to greater regulatory risk. Overall, its scale and regulatory footing make it a solid player within the regulated gas utilities segment.
What is the outlook for Atmos Energy's distribution and pipeline segments?
Distribution revenue has grown 4.8 % year‑on‑year in Q3 2026, driven by a steady customer base and modest rate increases. The pipeline and storage segment, however, experienced a 15.3 % revenue decline in the same quarter, reflecting lower transmission volumes and tighter rate approvals. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance at $8.40–$8.50, suggesting confidence that distribution gains will offset pipeline volatility. Capital expenditures are projected to stay within budget, preserving cash for dividends. The company’s focus on maintaining efficient operations in both segments is expected to support margin expansion over the next 12 months.
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