DailyIQ
Last updated1 minute ago

AXON·Axon Enterprise, Inc.

$407.14
-6.21 (-1.50%)
High
$416.00
Open
$409.01
Market Cap
33.58B
52W High
$764.02
Low
$395.75
P. Close
$407.14
P/E
168.49
52W Low
$339.01
Fwd P/E
39.20
DailyIQ Est.
$741.64
Inst. Ownership
45.7%
Short Interest
4.80%
Days to Cover
3.5
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Aug 5, 2026Guidance raised · tone +5.7 vs prior release · 125 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
10
BEARISH
News Sentiment
62
BULLISH
On Oct 11, Axon’s chief financial officer Brittany Bagley announced that the company expected its Q4 2026 quarter to be its fastest‑growing period of the year, with revenue projected near $1.078 billion. Bagley’s forecast followed a 35.28 % growth rate reported for Q2 2026 and was presented at a Goldman Sachs conference on September 8. The company had spent $549.7 million on acquisitions in Q1 2026, a fact that contextualized the growth outlook. Analysts had estimated FY2027 revenue to rise about 14 % and noted that analyst coverage had increased from 11 to 19. Shares had closed at $422.89 on Oct 9, down from $717.64 on September 30, 2025, after a one‑day drop following Q2 results and a $1 billion convertible note offering. The CFO’s projection highlighted the company’s ambition to sustain high growth momentum in the coming quarters.
LOW TARGET
$440 +8.1%
1 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$697 +71.3%
16 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$830 +103.9%
13 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$440.00 - $830.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
9/16/3/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$741.64 (+82.2%)
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Website
Symbol
AXON
Description
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is a technology provider focused on public safety solutions, serving law enforcement and first responders globally. The company operates through two primary segments: Software and Sensors, and TASER. The Software and Sensors division offers integrated hardware, including body cameras and in-car systems, coupled with cloud-based software for managing digital evidence. The TASER segment focuses on the development and sale of conducted energy devices (CEDs), along with related accessories, training content, and virtual reality solutions. Axon's value proposition centers on providing comprehensive tools and services that enhance safety and efficiency for its target markets, with distribution through various channels including online platforms and partnerships.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
214,474.093 shares
$112.6M
Brooks CameronCHIEF REVENUE OFFICER
Tax Withholding5,850 shares2026-10-01
Fields IsaiahChief Legal Officer
Sell1,017 shares2026-09-11
SMITH PATRICK WCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Sell197 shares2026-09-08
SMITH PATRICK WCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Sell1,033 shares2026-09-08
SMITH PATRICK WCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Sell1,251 shares2026-09-08
81/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
59.7%
Net Margin
4.5%
Revenue CAGR
22.8%
Current Ratio
2.53x
Debt / Equity
0.56x
Return on Equity
3.8%
Earnings Summary
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is a technology provider focused on public safety solutions, serving law enforcement and first responders globally through its Software and Sensors and TASER segments, positioning it within the aerospace & defense industrials space. In the most recent quarters, Axon posted revenue growth from $575.1 million in Q4 2024 to $603.6 million in Q1 2025, and further to $668.5 million in Q2 2025, reflecting a steady upward trajectory; EPS, however, rose from $2.08 in Q4 2024 to $1.41 in Q1 2025 before accelerating to $2.12 in Q2 2025, indicating a mixed earnings pattern with a miss in Q1 but a strong beat in Q2. Historically, the company has shown a YoY revenue increase of roughly 35% in Q2 2026 and a near‑flat EPS in Q2 2026 versus estimates, suggesting revenue momentum can coexist with earnings volatility; the firm has consistently beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters while revenue growth has remained robust. Recent news highlights a $549.7 million acquisition spend in Q1 2026 and a ten‑year $22 million contract with the City of Lakeland, both aimed at stabilizing cash flow and expanding deployment of its Corrections platform, which has already reduced staff assaults by 40% in four states; these developments underscore the company’s focus on expanding its public‑safety footprint.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.03$1.34$1.65$1.95$2.26Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.94 - -
Q2'26$1.89$1.88-0.3%
Q3'25$1.54$1.17-24.1%
Q2'25$1.46$2.12+45.0%
Q1'25$1.28$1.41+10.3%
Q4'24$1.40$2.08+48.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$517M$643M$768M$893M$1.0BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$960M - -
Q2'26$894M$904M+1.2%
Q3'25 - $711M -
Q2'25 - $669M -
Q1'25 - $604M -
Q4'24 - $575M -

Market Data

AXON Stock Snapshot

BEARISH10/100
$407.14−$6.21 (1.5%)
Market cap
33.58B
P/E ratio
168.5
Day range
$395.75 – $416.00
News sentiment
62/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$697.26 (+71.3%)
Consensus
Buy · 30 analysts
52-week range+20.1% off low · -46.7% from high
$339.01$764.02
Price $407.14 DailyIQ Est. $741.64

Axon Enterprise, Inc. is trading near its 52-week low with momentum still pointing lower. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into AXON?

RICH

At today's price, Axon Enterprise, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 110.4% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 10.81% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 18.4% a year, so the market is asking for 92.0 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis AXON looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
110.4%
Historical FCF CAGR
18.4%
Growth gap
+92.0 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
10.81%
Beta
1.18

Behaviour On Record

What AXON's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
34.8% 33rd pct
Below its peak
-52.5%
vs 200-day average
-15.8%
Up days (1y)
46%

Axon Enterprise, Inc. is currently running 34.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AXON's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 33rd percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 41.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AXON is trading -52.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -40.0%, and the deepest was -52.7% in 2015. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -15.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 13th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year AXON closed higher on 46% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, AXON finished the month higher 9 of 14 times, with a median return of +3.6% and an average of +5.0%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +9.2% on average, its weakest March at -4.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AXON has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 280 of 3,268 sessions (8.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +15.2% and -13.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AXON's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of AXON's sector?

Axon Enterprise, Inc. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Aerospace & Defense industry group, AXON ranks 7th of 15 tracked industries, improving.

Sector rank
#8 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
36
Industry rank
#7 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for AXON?

CallsPuts

For Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.01), with at-the-money implied volatility around 62.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.0% move by that expiry — a range of about $385.83–$426.43.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
1.01
ATM implied volatility
62.9%
Total open interest
5,078
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±5.0% ($385.83–$426.43)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on AXON?

Argus Research most recently reiterated its rating on Axon Enterprise, Inc. to Buy on Sep 3, 2026 with a price target of $600 (from $460). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Argus Research — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 3, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$460 → $600
Aug 6, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$440 → $600
Aug 6, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$600 → $640
Aug 6, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedOverweight$724 → $732
Aug 6, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$523 → $688
Jul 13, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedOverweight$674 → $724
Jul 6, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$600 → $750
Jun 25, 2026CitizensReiteratedMarket Outperform$700
May 8, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$682 → $523
May 7, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$570 → $440
May 7, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$750 → $755
May 7, 2026CitizensMaintainedMarket Outperform$825 → $700

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Aug 5, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Guidance raised
Tone70.9/ 100+5.7 vs prior release
Hedging words0.22per 100 words-0.05 vs prior release
Tone, last 2 releasesScale 50–76

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Raises full-year revenue growth outlook to 32% to 34% ; maintains Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook at 25.5%

    Guidance raisedNew this quarter
  2. 2

    Our increased revenue guidance is supported by our continued execution against $15.1 billion in Future Contracted Bookings, and an expanding pipeline that supports our expectation for greater than 30% growth in five-year normalized bookings year over year for 2026.

    Guidance raisedNew this quarter
  3. 3

    Annual recurring revenue grows 39% to $1.6 billion; net revenue retention reaches 126%

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

AXON peers & ETF holders

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

62/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
Analysts upgraded AXON to a Strong Buy after assessing its improving earnings outlook. The rating change reflects expectations of higher revenue growth and stronger profitability in upcoming quarters. The upgrade signals investor confidence in AXON’s business model and market positioning, potentially supporting a positive market reaction.
What did this article say?
Axon Enterprise, a public safety technology firm, was highlighted as a more attractive rebound candidate compared to Turning Point Brands, a consumer goods company. Analysts noted that Axon’s growth strategy and higher valuation potential could translate into greater upside by 2026. The comparison underscored the differing risk profiles, with Axon positioned for accelerated earnings expansion versus Turning Point’s steady cash flow. This assessment suggests investors may view Axon as a more compelling long‑term play.
What did this article say?
Axon’s CFO, Brittany Bagley, projected that Q4 2026 would be the company’s fastest‑growing quarter, targeting revenue of approximately $1.078 billion. The forecast followed a 35.28% growth rate reported for Q2 and was presented at a Goldman Sachs conference on September 8. Shares had closed at $422.89 on October 9, down from $717.64 on September 30, 2025, after a one‑day drop following Q2 results and a $1 billion convertible note offering. Analysts estimated FY2027 revenue to rise about 14% and noted an increase in analyst coverage from 11 to 19. The company had spent $549.7 million on acquisitions in Q1 2026, adding to the context of its growth outlook.
What did this article say?
Axon Enterprise’s stock has fallen sharply after a 133% five‑year gain, prompting investors to reassess whether future cash flows justify the current price. Analysts highlighted a new ten‑year, roughly $22 million contract with the City of Lakeland for body cameras, TASER devices, in‑car video, and docked drones as a potential source of steady revenue. The company’s long‑term performance remains strong, but the recent price decline raises doubts about its valuation under a discounted cash flow model. No material earnings guidance or strategic shift was disclosed, leaving the market uncertain about the stock’s intrinsic value.
What did this article say?
On October 8, Axon Enterprise closed at $417.31, up 2.79% from the prior day, outperforming the S&P 500’s 0.47% decline. The company’s shares had fallen 17.14% over the past month, lagging behind the Aerospace sector’s 10.41% loss and the broader market’s 1.15% gain. Analysts anticipate the upcoming earnings report to show a 65.81% year‑over‑year earnings growth to $1.94 per share and a 31.62% revenue increase to $935.35 million. Market participants are closely monitoring these projections for potential upside in the next quarter.
What did this article say?
Lakeland, Florida approved a ten‑year, $21.98 million contract with Axon Enterprise to deliver body cameras, TASER 10 devices, in‑car video systems, AI‑powered software, and Drone as First Responder technology, partially funded by a $3.97 million state immigration grant. The deal expands Axon’s AI and drone footprint and provides a steady revenue stream over the next decade. In response, Axon raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook, citing strong momentum in its Software & Services segment. Analysts noted competitive pressure on margins but viewed the contract as a significant tailwind for the company’s long‑term growth prospects.
What did this article say?
Axon announced deployments of its Corrections platform in four states, integrating body‑worn cameras, fleet video, drones and AI tools across 42 facilities and 15,000 officers. The rollout has already produced a 40% drop in staff assaults and improved operational visibility. The New York State Department of Corrections and the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction are among the first to adopt the system, with additional AI testing underway. The expansion signals continued demand for Axon’s public‑safety technology and reinforces its market leadership in corrections.
What did this article say?
On October 8, Jim Cramer highlighted margin pressure and competitive challenges for Axon Enterprise, sparking a reevaluation of the company’s valuation. The stock fell roughly 21% over the past month and 30% over three months, contributing to a 44% decline in its one‑year total shareholder return. Despite recent long‑term contract wins and positive software adoption signals, investors appeared cautious about Axon’s profitability prospects. The commentary underscored uncertainty about whether the current price reflects sustainable earnings potential.
What did this article say?
Jim Cramer, during a call on October 1, advised listeners to pause on AXON shares, citing the arrival of competitors that could squeeze margins. He highlighted that margin pressure would challenge the company’s ability to sustain a high earnings multiple. The comment was made after AXON announced a 35% year‑over‑year revenue increase in Q2, yet the analyst’s tone suggests a potential slowdown. The statement reflects a shift from earlier optimism to a more guarded view of AXON’s prospects.
What did this article say?
AXON Networks announced the launch of AXON Datum, a data governance and AI sovereignty layer designed to help telecoms, enterprises, and government institutions manage and protect data in AI applications. The new platform aims to give service providers and organizations control over how data is accessed, protected, and moved in an AI‑driven environment. By offering secure sovereign governance, AXON Datum addresses a growing need for data control as telecoms and governments adopt agentic AI solutions. The announcement positions AXON as a pioneer in AI‑centric data management for the telecom sector.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

10
BEARISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $20.78B combined position · 15 adding, 10 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
Vanguard Group Inc▲ Buy9,367,22411.55%$5.32B2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.▲ Buy8,334,55110.28%$4.67B2026-08-07
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy3,229,0603.98%$1.81B2026-08-14
Baillie Gifford & Co▲ Buy3,059,4873.77%$1.72B2026-08-06
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▲ Buy3,024,9573.73%$1.70B2026-08-13
Geode Capital Management, LLC▲ Buy2,312,7652.85%$1.29B2026-08-12
Wellington Management Group LLP▼ Sell2,103,1422.59%$1.18B2026-08-14
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy1,089,1641.34%$610.60M2026-08-13
Norges Bank▲ Buy931,8271.15%$522.39M2026-08-12
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy825,4441.02%$462.75M2026-08-14
Northern Trust Corp▲ Buy774,2810.95%$434.07M2026-08-13
JPMorgan Chase & Co▼ Sell586,7140.72%$299.58M2026-08-12
Bank of America Corp▼ Sell511,3790.63%$286.68M2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc▲ Buy195,0190.24%$109.33M2026-08-03
Wells Fargo & Company▼ Sell152,1570.19%$85.30M2026-08-14
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▲ Buy130,9820.16%$73.43M2026-08-14
Millennium Management LLC▼ Sell84,2240.10%$47.22M2026-08-14
Adage Capital Partners GP, L.L.C.▲ Buy71,8000.09%$40.25M2026-08-14
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell74,8660.09%$31.79M2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC▼ Sell47,3590.06%$26.55M2026-09-02
Prudential Financial Inc▲ Buy37,0050.05%$20.75M2026-08-12
Gotham Asset Management, LLC▲ Buy35,9670.04%$20.16M2026-08-14
AQR Capital Management LLC▼ Sell25,8870.03%$14.18M2026-08-14
Man Group plc▼ Sell10,3540.01%$5.80M2026-08-14
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▼ Sell7,3790.01%$4.14M2026-08-13
Q2 2026 flow:3.79M sh bought ($2.13B)802.4K sh sold ($446.49M)net +2.99M sh (+$1.68B)
Congressional Trading Activity
4 disclosed trades · ~$81.0K est. traded value · 2 buys, 2 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Alan ArmstrongSenateOK▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-03-272026-07-21
Jefferson ShreveHouseIN06▼ Sell$15K - $50K2025-05-122025-06-22
Jefferson ShreveHouseIN06▲ Buy$15K - $50K2025-03-052025-04-11
Rob BresnahanHousePA08▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-01-132025-02-13