CF·CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

29.9% 32nd pct

Below its peak

-20.5%

vs 200-day average

-1.5%

Up days (1y)

54%

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is currently running 29.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CF's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 32nd percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 35.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CF is trading -20.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -30.0%, and the deepest was -54.4% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -1.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 36th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year CF closed higher on 54% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, CF finished the month higher 4 of 13 times, with a median return of -4.2% and an average of -1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +4.8% on average, its weakest March at -3.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CF has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 175 of 3,266 sessions (5.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.6% and -13.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CF moved an average of 3.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +4.0% and a largest of +4.4%.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-10-14 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CF's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.