DailyIQ
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Sector:Basic MaterialsAll sectors
Last updated 2 minutes ago

CF·CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$121.42
Open
$118.82
Market Cap
18.42B
52W High
$141.96
Low
$118.20
P. Close
$116.94
P/E
10.48
52W Low
$75.42
Fwd P/E
10.78
DailyIQ Est.
$127.23
Technical Score (1D)
73
BUY
News Sentiment
67
BULLISH
CF Industries recently passed a rigorous quality investing screen, driven by a 30 % rise in EBIT and a 24 % ROIC, signaling strong operational efficiency and capital deployment; traders should monitor how this translates into earnings guidance. The company also announced a 20 % increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.60 per share, underscoring confidence in cash flow and appealing to income‑focused investors; watch for the dividend payout ratio and any changes to the payout policy. The dividend hike comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and a tightening global nitrogen supply, which have bolstered demand for CF’s fertilizer products; watch for updated nitrogen demand forecasts. Management’s confidence is further reflected in a 20 % dividend increase announced earlier, suggesting a stable payout policy that may cushion the impact of rising natural gas costs on margins; watch for natural gas price trends. Analysts have noted that CF appears roughly 36 % undervalued based on DCF and earnings multiples, while a 162 % five‑year return underscores its robust fundamentals; watch for any revisions to valuation models. Despite the valuation discount, recent cuts to price targets by Morgan Stanley and UBS to $115 from $135 and $130 respectively highlight concerns over commodity price volatility and potential margin compression; watch for further analyst adjustments. The firm’s inclusion on Zacks’ Rank #1 Strong Buy list and Argus Research’s target price lift to $126 indicate bullish sentiment tied to expected earnings growth and favorable commodity pricing; watch for confirmation of earnings growth in the upcoming release. In the next 1–10 trading days, the key catalyst will be the upcoming Q2 and H1 2026 earnings release and conference call, which will provide guidance on margins, production volumes, and the impact of natural gas price movements; watch the earnings call for any surprises. Traders should watch for any updates on nitrogen demand forecasts, natural gas cost trends, and any further adjustments to dividend policy or valuation targets that could signal shifts in CF’s risk‑return profile.
Earnings Summary
CF Industries Holdings, headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, is a global producer of nitrogen‑based fertilizers and industrial products, supplying ammonia, urea, and related compounds to agricultural and industrial customers worldwide. In its latest two quarters, Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, the company posted EPS of $2.99 and $2.89, both surpassing analyst estimates of $2.62 and $2.61, respectively, while revenue grew from $1.872 B in Q4 2025 to $1.986 B in Q1 2026, exceeding expectations of $1.834 B and $1.879 B; this contrasts with Q2 2025, where EPS of $2.37 fell short of the $2.48 estimate, indicating a brief margin dip. Over the past five quarters, CF has consistently beaten EPS expectations in four instances, with only the Q2 2025 miss, and has maintained a steady upward trajectory in revenue, reflecting robust demand for its nitrogen products. Recent analyst actions—Morgan Stanley and UBS downgrades citing margin compression and commodity volatility, alongside Argus and Scotiabank upgrades highlighting operational efficiency—illustrate a mixed market view that hinges on the company’s ability to manage input costs and pricing power; these shifts are likely to shape investor expectations for the next earnings cycle. Investors should watch the forthcoming Q2 2026 earnings release for guidance on cost‑control measures, pricing strategies, and the impact of natural gas and nitrogen price movements, as these factors will be key determinants of CF’s margin resilience and revenue outlook in the near term.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.88$2.24$3.59$4.95$6.30Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$5.68 - -
Q1'26$2.61$2.89+10.6%
Q4'25$2.62$2.99+14.2%
Q3'25$2.07$2.19+5.6%
Q2'25$2.48$2.37-4.5%
Q1'25$1.51$1.85+22.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.5B$1.8B$2.1B$2.4B$2.7BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$2.5B - -
Q1'26$1.9B$2.0B+5.7%
Q4'25$1.8B$1.9B+2.0%
Q3'25 - $1.7B -
Q2'25 - $1.9B -
Q1'25 - $1.7B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

CF Stock Snapshot

CF is currently trading at $116.92, giving CF Industries Holdings, Inc. a market cap of 18.42B and a P/E ratio of 10.5. Today's range spans $118.20–$121.42, with shares opening at $118.82 and moving down $0.02 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 73/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 67/100.

Over the past year CF has traded between $75.42 and $141.96 - the current price is +55.0% off the 52-week low and -17.6% from the high. 32 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $125.72 (range $100.00–$195.72), implying upside of +7.5%.

Short interest data on large-cap Basic Materials names like CF (18.42B market cap) becomes relevant when the technical picture turns bullish - a BUY on 73/100 with bullish sentiment (67/100) is exactly the kind of setup that makes shorts nervous. Price at $116.92 (in the middle of its 52-week range in $75.42–$141.96). The current P/E ratio stands at 10.5. Short covering in a bullish technical phase can add a secondary momentum layer on top of genuine long-side conviction - a dynamic worth monitoring in the current setup.

The combination of a BUY signal (73/100) and bullish news sentiment (67/100) puts CF on the screens of active managers who run quality-momentum overlays — a cohort that can build meaningful positions at 18.42B in Basic Materials market cap without immediately moving the stock. At $116.92 (in the middle of its 52-week range in the $75.42–$141.96 range), the entry discipline is clean and the potential re-rating if sentiment continues to improve is meaningful.