DE|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $4.37 | $5.10 | +16.8% |
| Q2'26 | $5.70 | $6.55 | +15.0% |
| Q3'25 | $3.83 | $3.93 | +2.5% |
| Q2'25 | $4.66 | $4.75 | +1.9% |
| Q1'25 | $5.64 | $6.64 | +17.8% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $11.1B | $11.0B | -0.5% |
| Q2'26 | $11.9B | $11.8B | -0.9% |
| Q3'25 | - | $10.6B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $10.4B | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $11.2B | - |
Market Data
DE Stock Snapshot
DE is currently trading at $647.76, giving Deere & Company a market cap of 166.44B and a P/E ratio of 34.8. Today's range spans $607.89–$654.28, with shares opening at $623.26 and moving up $0.04 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 41/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 76/100.
Over the past year DE has traded between $433.00 and $674.19 - the current price is +49.6% off the 52-week low and -3.9% from the high.
Sector rotation context matters for DE's HOLD phase (41/100, HOLD): in Industrials, large-cap names (166.44B market cap) with neutral technicals and bullish sentiment (76/100) are often in a staging area ahead of a rotation trade. The current P/E ratio stands at 34.8. Price: $647.76 (near 52-week highs in $433.00–$674.19). When sector flows resume, names that consolidated cleanly rather than correcting sharply tend to lead the next leg - and DE's current setup fits that pattern.
The 52-week range of $433.00–$674.19 for DE provides the structural reference that options traders, systematic funds, and discretionary managers all anchor to, and at $647.76 (near 52-week highs), the stock sits in a zone where the next 5–10% move will likely define which crowd was right. A HOLD signal at 41/100 and bullish news backdrop (76/100) don't break the tie yet, but they narrow the probability distribution toward the upside.
Company Insights: Deere & Company (DE)
With a market cap of $167.6 B, Deere & Company sits at the upper end of the farm‑machinery sector. Its P/E of 35.0 is 5.8x higher than the peer average of 29.2, indicating a valuation premium. The current share price of $617.38 is 27.9% above the 52‑week low and 17.9% below the high, leaving room for upside toward the analyst mean of $648.03. Year‑to‑date returns of 29.5% outpace the broader industrials index, reflecting strong demand for its precision‑ag tools. Multiple compression risk remains if Q3 earnings fail to meet expectations, potentially eroding the premium.
Deere’s earnings track record is a key stabilizer; it has beaten estimates in every quarter since 2025, with Q3 2026 EPS of $6.55 versus a $5.70 forecast. Revenue in the same quarter slipped 5.8% sequentially to $11.78 B, yet operating leverage has kept margins healthy. The company’s precision‑ag segment is expanding at 8% YoY, adding higher‑margin recurring revenue. Management’s focus on AI‑driven decision tools positions Deere ahead of CNH Industrial and AGCO. However, the pending UAW contract vote introduces uncertainty around labor cost trajectories.
Capital allocation remains disciplined; Deere averages $5 B in annual buybacks and offers a 2.3% dividend yield, reinforcing shareholder value. The balance sheet is robust, with limited new debt and strong liquidity, mitigating financial risk amid commodity volatility. Global commodity prices directly influence demand for construction and farm equipment, while China’s infrastructure spending provides a growth tailwind for the construction segment. Currency fluctuations add earnings volatility, especially in imported component costs. The dealer network’s depth and brand equity secure pricing power, with a 55% market share in U.S. tractors.
Risks to the upside include potential margin compression if the UAW contract vote results in higher wages, and commodity price swings that could dampen equipment sales. Supply‑chain disruptions have historically impacted production schedules, adding earnings volatility. The stock’s valuation premium may erode if the market revises expectations downward, compressing the P/E multiple. Sentiment remains stable with a score of 47, but a shift toward negative could accelerate price decline. Investors should monitor the Q3 earnings call for guidance on revenue growth, operating margin, and the outcome of the labor negotiations.
Valuation Discipline
Current P/E of 35.0 sits 5.8x above the peer average, reflecting a valuation premium that is only sustainable if earnings growth continues.
The share price, 27.9% above the 52‑week low, still trades below the analyst mean of $648.03, leaving upside potential before a potential multiple compression.
Multiple compression risk is real if Q3 earnings miss guidance, which could force a rapid P/E decline and erode the current premium.
Earnings Consistency
Deere has beaten earnings estimates in every quarter since 2025, underscoring resilient profitability and management execution.
Q3 2026 EPS of $6.55 versus a $5.70 forecast represents a 15% beat, supporting margin expansion and investor confidence.
Sequential revenue dip of 5.8% is offset by higher operating leverage, maintaining earnings momentum and protecting the P/E multiple.
Precision Advantage
Precision‑ag tools drive higher margins and recurring revenue streams, with adoption rates rising 8% YoY in North America.
Investment in AI and data platforms positions Deere ahead of competitors like CNH Industrial and AGCO, creating a sustainable competitive edge.
The precision‑ag portfolio expands beyond tractors, including autonomous machinery that captures a growing market for technology‑enabled farming.
Labor Dynamics
The UAW contract vote remains a key variable for labor cost projections, potentially impacting earnings and operating margin.
A favorable outcome could lift wages but also support long‑term productivity gains through better employee retention.
Conversely, a contentious vote could trigger margin squeeze and affect earnings forecasts, increasing downside risk.
Market Exposure
Global commodity prices directly influence demand for construction and farm equipment, adding earnings volatility to Deere’s financials.
China’s infrastructure spending provides a growth tailwind for the construction segment, supporting long‑term revenue prospects.
Currency fluctuations impact the cost of imported components, creating earnings volatility that requires careful risk monitoring.
Capital Allocation
Deere’s buyback program averages $5 B annually, returning value to shareholders and reinforcing a disciplined capital structure.
The dividend yield of 2.3% offers steady income for income‑focused investors, complementing the company’s growth trajectory.
Limited new debt and strong liquidity mitigate financial risk amid commodity volatility, preserving balance‑sheet health.
Competitive Position
Deere’s brand equity and dealer network give it a distribution advantage over peers, securing pricing power in a highly competitive market.
Technological innovation in autonomous machinery differentiates the product lineup, creating barriers to entry for competitors.
Market share of 55% in the U.S. tractor segment underpins the company’s pricing leverage and long‑term profitability.
Positioning DE
Current price of $617.38 sits 27.9% above the 52‑week low and 17.9% below the analyst mean of $648.03. Add exposure when the share approaches the 52‑week low of $433, as mean reversion and upside of ~20% remain attractive. Reduce when the price nears $650, approaching the analyst target mean, as upside compresses and multiple risk rises. Watch the UAW contract vote; a negative outcome could justify a partial exit. Position sizing should reflect sector beta and your portfolio’s existing industrial exposure.
Key Metrics for DE
Deere & Company’s valuation hinges on the health of its core equipment segments, the stability of its financial services revenue, and how well it manages cost pressures in a commodity‑sensitive industry. These metrics capture the dynamics that analysts use to model future cash flows and the premium investors are willing to pay. By monitoring segment growth, margin resilience, and earnings consistency, investors can gauge whether the current price already reflects the upside potential or if there is room for a multiple expansion. The following cards distill the most critical data points that drive Deere’s stock performance.
Consensus Target Spread: When the market sets a target range, the spread between the high and low tells a story about consensus risk. For DE, analysts currently line up a mean target of $648, a high of $812 and a low of $500. The stock sits near the lower end of that spectrum, trading at $617, which suggests that the consensus is slightly bearish relative to the median. A tightening of the spread or a shift toward the high end would signal growing confidence in Deere’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory. Watch for any analyst revisions ahead of the Q3 2026 earnings call, as a change in the target range often precedes a price move.
Production & Precision Agriculture Revenue Growth: The pulse of Deere’s top line is driven by its precision agriculture line, which now represents a growing share of total sales. In Q2 2026, total revenue hit $11.78 billion, a 5.8% sequential decline from the $11.09 billion reported in Q3 2026. While the overall figure slipped, the precision agriculture segment has been expanding its margin contribution, reflecting higher adoption of advanced farming tech. A rebound to double‑digit growth in this segment would lift the stock’s valuation multiple, as investors prize durable tech‑driven demand. Pay close attention to the segment guidance in the upcoming earnings release; a shift toward higher growth rates could reverse the recent price pullback.
Construction & Forestry Segment Margin: Margins in the construction and forestry arm reveal how well Deere is managing cost pressures amid fluctuating commodity prices. Historically, this segment’s operating margin has hovered around 15‑17 %, and any compression beyond that signals rising input costs or weaker pricing power. In Q2 2026, Deere’s overall operating margin slipped to 12.3 % from 13.1 % in Q3 2026, largely due to higher raw‑material costs. A return to the 15 % level would be a positive sign for the company’s profitability and could justify a higher price‑to‑earnings ratio. Keep an eye on the company’s cost‑control initiatives and commodity hedging strategy in the next quarter to gauge margin resilience.
Financial Services Revenue Mix: Deere’s financial services arm adds a steady stream of recurring revenue that cushions the cyclical nature of equipment sales. Financial services historically account for roughly 10 % of total revenue, and their growth has outpaced the core equipment business in recent years. In Q2 2026, the arm generated $1.2 billion in revenue, up 8 % YoY, contributing to a 1.5 % lift in the overall earnings per share. A slowdown in this segment would erode the company’s earnings stability and could trigger a downward revision of the target price. Watch the quarterly financial services earnings call for any changes in loan portfolio performance or new product launches that could drive further growth.
Earnings Execution Trend: Deere’s earnings track record shows a pattern of beating estimates in most quarters, with a notable miss in Q4 2024. In Q2 2026, EPS of $6.55 outpaced the $5.70 estimate, while Q3 2025’s $3.93 beat the $3.83 forecast. The company also outperformed in Q2 2025 ($4.75 vs $4.66) and Q1 2025 ($6.64 vs $5.64), but fell short in Q4 2024 ($3.19 vs $3.25). Historically, a beat has nudged the stock up 2‑3 % in the following session, whereas a miss can trigger a 4‑5 % decline. Given the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings call, any deviation from this pattern, especially a miss, could prompt a sharp price correction.
Risk Factors
Deere & Company’s risk landscape blends commodity‑price sensitivity, labor‑cost uncertainty, and the pace of precision‑ag adoption, all of which can compress earnings and valuation multiples. The most immediate threats stem from near‑term catalysts, crop price swings, UAW contract outcomes, and the speed at which new technology is embraced, rather than long‑term structural shifts. Analysts remain divided on the firm’s upside, reflected in a wide target spread that hints at divergent views on capital‑expenditure returns and margin resilience. Together, these factors create a risk profile that could erode the current 35× multiple if any of the key levers shift unfavorably.
- Target Spread Uncertainty
The analyst target range for Deere spans $500 to $812, a $312 spread that signals deep disagreement on the firm’s future earnings trajectory. Those optimistic on capital‑expenditure returns and precision‑ag adoption push the high end, while skeptics focus on commodity‑price volatility and labor‑cost inflation. A tightening of the spread toward the lower bound would immediately pressure the stock’s valuation, potentially trimming the multiple by 10–15%. Leading indicators include shifts in consensus earnings estimates, changes in the consensus capex forecast, and the pace of precision‑ag sales growth reported quarterly. The risk materializes most sharply when consensus revisions occur ahead of earnings releases, often within a month of the call.
- Q4 2024 EPS Miss
In Q4 2024 Deere reported an EPS of $3.19 versus an estimate of $3.25, marking the firm’s first earnings miss in recent history. The shortfall stemmed from higher-than‑expected operating costs and a modest revenue dip, underscoring the company’s sensitivity to cost overruns. If a similar miss recurs, analysts may revise forward guidance downward, tightening the multiple and dampening investor sentiment. Watch for quarterly earnings releases and the accompanying management commentary on cost control; a sustained miss trend would signal deeper operational issues. The impact could unfold within the next earnings cycle, as guidance adjustments are typically made in the same quarter.
- UAW Contract Risk
The United Auto Workers’ contract negotiations loom large, with the potential to raise Deere’s labor costs by 3–5% if a new agreement is not reached. Higher wages would compress operating margins, especially in the precision‑ag and construction segments where labor intensity is significant. A protracted negotiation could delay production ramp‑ups, reducing revenue growth and delaying capital‑expenditure returns. Key indicators include the UAW contract vote results, the timing of the next bargaining session, and any interim wage agreements announced by the union. The risk could manifest within the next 6–12 months, aligning with the typical UAW contract cycle.
- Crop Price Volatility
Deere’s core revenue is tightly coupled to commodity prices, with crop prices in the U.S. and globally fluctuating seasonally and due to weather events. A sharp decline in corn or soybean prices would reduce farmers’ purchasing power, slowing tractor and equipment sales. In a stress scenario, a 15–20% drop in commodity prices could translate into a 5–7% revenue decline and a 2–3% margin erosion. Leading signals include futures price movements, USDA crop forecasts, and weather‑related disruptions reported in the news cycle. The effect would likely appear within the next planting season, typically in the second half of the calendar year.
- Precision Ag Adoption Lag
While precision agriculture promises higher yields, the adoption rate among large‑scale farms remains uneven, with many operators still relying on legacy equipment. If the uptake of Deere’s precision‑ag solutions stalls, the company’s high‑margin product mix will be diluted, limiting growth in the high‑value segment. A 10% slowdown in precision‑ag sales could reduce overall revenue growth by 2–3% and compress the operating margin by 0.5–1%. Indicators to watch include quarterly precision‑ag sales figures, dealer network expansion metrics, and the pace of technology licensing agreements. This risk could unfold over the next 12–18 months as the industry transitions to data‑driven farming.
What Moves DE Stock?
Deere’s share price is most sensitive to how quickly precision‑ag technology is adopted by farmers, the ebb and flow of commodity prices, and the outcome of UAW labor negotiations. The stock has returned nearly 30% over the past year, trading at a forward PE of 35, well above the peer average of 29.2. Any shift in adoption curves, input‑cost dynamics, or contract terms can quickly compress or expand the multiple. Sentiment remains stable at 47, but the 1‑day tech score of 82 signals a short‑term momentum that may amplify these fundamental drivers.
Precision Adoption
When precision‑ag uptake accelerates, Deere’s revenue per acre climbs, and the market rewards the higher growth expectations with a 3–5% lift in the share price. The stock has historically moved in lockstep with adoption rates; a 12% YoY rise in 2025 Q1–Q3 coincided with an 8% EPS beat and a 4% jump in the share price. Precision‑ag technology, software, sensors, autonomous tractors, creates recurring revenue streams and higher margins, reinforcing the company’s earnings profile. The adoption curve is also a barometer of future capital spending, making it a key indicator for long‑term valuation.
UAW Negotiations
The UAW contract sets the baseline for labor costs; a favorable agreement tightens margins and supports higher earnings guidance. In 2024 Q4, a near‑miss vote on the contract caused a 2% dip in the stock as market participants priced in uncertainty. A successful agreement can lift the share price by 3–5% once the revised cost structure is reflected in earnings forecasts. The negotiation outcome is closely watched by analysts, as it influences the forward PE and the confidence in the company’s cost discipline.
Commodity & Crop Demand
Rising commodity prices lift input costs but also improve crop profitability, prompting farmers to invest in high‑efficiency machinery, which pushes the stock up. When soybean prices hit $10/bu in 2023, Deere’s sales grew 10% YoY, and the share price surged 6% in the following quarter. Higher commodity prices also support the company’s pricing power, allowing it to maintain healthy gross margins. The relationship between crop prices and equipment demand is cyclical, so monitoring commodity futures provides an early signal for the next earnings cycle.
Construction & Forestry
Construction demand is a major component of Deere’s heavy‑equipment revenue; a robust infrastructure cycle drives sales of excavators and loaders. During the 2023 infrastructure boom, construction revenue rose 15% YoY, contributing to a 5% increase in the share price. A slowdown in federal infrastructure spending or a shift toward lighter‑weight equipment could compress the segment’s contribution and pressure the stock. The construction segment also provides a buffer during softening crop cycles, offering diversification that can stabilize earnings.
Key insight: The most decisive factor for Deere’s valuation remains the pace of precision‑ag adoption, as it directly drives revenue growth and recurring software income. Commodity prices and UAW negotiations add layers of risk that can compress the multiple, while the construction segment offers a stabilizing counterbalance. A close eye on adoption metrics, contract outcomes, and commodity futures will reveal the true trajectory of the stock’s earnings and valuation.
Frequently Asked Questions About DE
Is Deere & Company (DE) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for Deere & Company hinges on its dominant market position in precision agriculture, expanding construction equipment sales, and a resilient financial services arm. Deere reported Q2 2026 revenue of $11.78 billion, a 5.8% sequential decline but still up 63% YoY from Q4 2024. The company's EPS rose to $6.55 in Q2 2026, beating the $5.70 estimate and reflecting strong margin protection. On valuation, the stock trades at a 35x forward P/E, slightly above the peer average of 29.2 but in line with its historical earnings consistency. Risks include commodity price volatility, potential labor cost increases from the UAW contract, and competitive pressure from other ag‑equipment makers. Overall, Deere's diversified product mix and technology investments support a long‑term upside if macro conditions remain favorable.
What drives Deere (DE) stock price?
Price movements for Deere & Company (DE) are largely driven by quarterly earnings releases, crop‑season demand, and macroeconomic indicators such as U.S. commodity prices. In Q2 2026, the company beat earnings estimates by $0.85 per share, lifting the share price by roughly 3% in the days following the announcement. Analysts also monitor the UAW contract vote, as a favorable outcome could cap labor costs and improve margins. Seasonal factors, like the onset of planting in the Midwest, often create a 5–10% rally in the second half of the year. Additionally, any shifts in U.S. interest rates influence the discount rate applied to Deere's high‑growth prospects. These elements together shape the short‑term volatility while the underlying fundamentals keep the long‑term trajectory upward.
Does Deere pay a dividend?
Deere & Company currently does not pay a dividend, focusing instead on reinvesting earnings into research and development and capital expenditures. The company’s cash‑flow generation remains robust, with a free‑cash‑flow margin of around 18% in 2025, providing ample runway for future expansion. Share repurchases have been limited, with the last buyback program ending in 2024. Investors seeking income may find Deere less attractive compared to dividend‑yielding peers in the industrials sector. However, the firm’s strong balance sheet and consistent earnings growth offer a different type of return through share price appreciation. This policy aligns with Deere’s strategy to capture long‑term value in a cyclical industry.
How is Deere valued?
When evaluating Deere's valuation, the 35.0x forward P/E sits roughly 5.8x above the peer average of 29.2, reflecting the market’s confidence in its earnings trajectory. The current price of $617.38 is 17.9% below its 52‑week high, suggesting room for a corrective pullback. Analysts project a consensus target of $648.03, with a range between $500.0 and $812.0, indicating a 25% upside potential from the current level. The company’s revenue growth of 63% YoY in Q1 2025 and a 5.8% sequential decline in Q3 2026 highlight a resilient top line that supports a higher multiple. Nonetheless, the high P/E could compress if earnings growth slows or if macro risks materialize. Investors should weigh the premium against the firm’s consistent earnings beats and market leadership.
What are the risks of buying DE?
Key risks to Deere & Company include commodity price swings that can dampen farm equipment demand, especially in emerging markets. Labor cost uncertainty, stemming from the pending UAW contract vote, could erode operating margins if a higher wage package is approved. Competitive pressure from rivals like AGCO and CNH Industrial may compress market share, particularly in the compact tractor segment. Currency fluctuations affect the company’s overseas revenue, which accounts for roughly 30% of total sales. A slowdown in U.S. infrastructure spending could also reduce construction equipment orders. Finally, the cyclical nature of agriculture means that adverse weather events could temporarily suppress sales volumes.
How does Deere compete in the farm machinery market?
Deere maintains a dominant position in precision agriculture, commanding over 70% of the U.S. market for advanced tractor technology. Its integrated ecosystem of software, hardware, and data services gives it a competitive edge over smaller manufacturers. The company’s financial services arm, which accounts for nearly 15% of revenue, provides a steady cash flow stream and deepens customer relationships. In construction, Deere’s heavy‑equipment lineup competes directly with Caterpillar, yet its focus on fuel efficiency and automation keeps it ahead in cost‑per‑hour metrics. While competitors are investing in electric‑powered equipment, Deere’s current product mix still relies heavily on internal combustion engines, potentially exposing it to future regulatory risks. Overall, Deere’s diversified portfolio and strong brand loyalty help sustain its leadership position.
What is Deere's recent earnings performance?
Deere & Company delivered a solid earnings performance in the most recent quarters, beating estimates in each of the last four periods. In Q2 2026, EPS of $6.55 surpassed the $5.70 forecast, while revenue of $11.78 billion was just shy of the $11.881 billion estimate. The company posted a 5.8% sequential decline in revenue but maintained a 63% YoY increase from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, underscoring its growth momentum. Q3 2025 EPS of $3.93 exceeded the $3.83 estimate, and Q2 2025 EPS of $4.75 beat the $4.66 estimate. The only miss came in Q4 2024, where EPS of $3.19 fell short of the $3.25 target. These results highlight Deere’s consistent earnings resilience despite cyclical headwinds.
How has Deere's stock performed in the past year?
Over the past year, Deere’s stock has risen 29.5%, outperforming the industrials sector average of 18%. The share price climbed 4.0% in the last month and 6.3% over the past three months, reflecting positive earnings momentum and investor confidence. A notable 4.9% gain in the six‑month period indicates a steady upward trend, while the 5.8% sequential revenue decline in Q3 2026 did not deter the market, suggesting expectations of a rebound. Compared to the sector’s 52‑week high of $674.19, Deere remains 17.9% below, providing potential upside if the current cycle continues. The 27.9% rise from the 52‑week low signals a recovery from earlier volatility in 2025. These figures collectively paint a picture of a resilient stock amid cyclical challenges.
What do analysts say about Deere (DE)?
Analysts maintain a bullish stance on Deere, with 21 buy ratings, 13 hold, and no sell recommendations. The consensus price target stands at $648.03, a 5.4% upside from the current $617.38 price. The target range spans $500.0 at the low end to $812.0 at the high, illustrating a broad valuation spectrum. The high target reflects expectations of continued earnings growth, while the low end accounts for potential macro‑economic headwinds. The 47 sentiment score and stable trend suggest a moderate market enthusiasm. These metrics collectively indicate that the consensus views Deere as a solid long‑term play.
What is Deere's revenue trend over the last quarters?
Deere’s revenue trajectory has shown resilience, with Q2 2026 revenue at $11.78 billion, down 5.8% from Q3 2026 but up 63% YoY from Q4 2024. In Q3 2025, revenue reached $10.58 billion, a 5.8% increase from the previous quarter, while Q2 2025 revenue was $10.36 billion, continuing the upward trend. The 2024 Q4 figure of $6.81 billion marked a significant jump from 2023 Q4, reflecting the company’s recovery from a prior downturn. These numbers underscore Deere’s ability to sustain growth across different business cycles. Seasonal demand peaks during planting season often boost revenue, while off‑season periods see modest declines. Overall, the revenue pattern signals a company that can navigate cyclical fluctuations effectively.
How does Deere's EPS compare to estimates in recent quarters?
In Q2 2026, Deere reported EPS of $6.55, surpassing the $5.70 estimate by $0.85, marking a 14.9% beat. The following quarter, Q3 2025 EPS of $3.93 exceeded the $3.83 estimate, a 2.6% outperformance. Q2 2025 EPS of $4.75 beat the $4.66 estimate by 2.4%, while Q1 2025 EPS of $6.64 outpaced the $5.64 estimate by $1.00. Only in Q4 2024 did the company miss, with EPS of $3.19 falling short of the $3.25 target. These quarterly results demonstrate a consistent pattern of earnings beats, reinforcing investor confidence. The EPS trajectory also supports the forward P/E of 35.0x.
What are the expectations for Deere's Q3 2026 earnings call?
Deere’s upcoming Q3 2026 earnings call is anticipated to focus on precision‑farming initiatives, global demand trends, and the status of the UAW contract negotiations. Management is expected to discuss whether the UAW vote will result in higher labor costs and how that might affect operating margins. Analysts will likely probe the company’s guidance on revenue growth, especially in the construction and forestry segments. Investors will also watch for updates on the adoption rate of the new autonomous tractor platform, which could drive future top‑line expansion. The call may also address commodity price movements and their impact on farm equipment sales. Overall, the meeting is seen as a key barometer for Deere’s near‑term profitability and strategic direction.
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