DUOL·Duolingo, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

58.0% 49th pct

Below its peak

-70.6%

vs 200-day average

+20.9%

Up days (1y)

49%

Duolingo, Inc. is currently running 58.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against DUOL's own 5 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 49th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 58.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

DUOL is trading -70.6% below its running peak. Across 4 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -38.7%, and the deepest was -68.9% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +20.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 64th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year DUOL closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 5 years of records, DUOL finished the month higher 5 of 5 times, with a median return of +11.4% and an average of +16.4%. Its strongest month historically has been September at +16.4% on average, its weakest October at -5.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: DUOL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 124 of 1,282 sessions (9.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +18.3% and -6.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,283 daily closes between 2021-07-28 and 2026-09-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against DUOL's own 5-year history, not a peer group or index.