DUOL·Duolingo, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

47.4% 29th pct

Below its peak

-72.2%

vs 200-day average

+18.6%

Up days (1y)

48%

Duolingo, Inc. is currently running 47.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against DUOL's own 5 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 29th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 58.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

DUOL is trading -72.2% below its running peak. Across 4 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -38.7%, and the deepest was -68.9% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +18.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 63rd percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year DUOL closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 5 years of records, DUOL finished the month higher 2 of 5 times, with a median return of -11.2% and an average of -5.1%. Its strongest month historically has been September at +11.9% on average, its weakest October at -5.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: DUOL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 123 of 1,306 sessions (9.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +18.3% and -6.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,307 daily closes between 2021-07-28 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against DUOL's own 5-year history, not a peer group or index.