Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

NEUTRAL

News Sentiment

MIXED

ERIE scores 50 on the 1D technical view with a NEUTRAL signal and mixed momentum. Price action is in a neutral range - the market is coiling, and neither side has been willing to push to a definitive break. Sentiment at 47 is diverging from the flat technical backdrop, removing sentiment as a directional catalyst for now. Consolidations like this are often a sign that the market is waiting for new information before committing capital in either direction. The range between $221.99 and $240.49 is well-defined. When this kind of compression resolves - particularly if it resolves with a gap or range-expansion bar - the follow-through tends to be more sustained than a typical breakout because of the energy that builds during the quiet phase. Erie Indemnity Company's current range isn't offering much of an edge in either direction, which is itself useful information - it means the 1D setup is better suited to defining risk (a close outside $221.99 or $240.49) than to predicting the outcome. Trying to front-run that resolution usually costs more in false starts than it saves in early entry.

ERIE|Analyst Targets

ERIE|Company Info

Sector

Financial Services

Industry

Insurance Brokers

Exchange

NMS

Country

United States

Website

erieinsurance.com

Symbol

ERIE

Description

Erie Indemnity Company serves as the managing entity for the Erie Insurance Exchange, a U.S.-based insurance provider. The company's core function revolves around supporting the Exchange's operations, offering a comprehensive suite of services. These services encompass the full insurance lifecycle, from policy issuance and renewals to sales and marketing initiatives. Erie Indemnity also provides crucial underwriting services, ensuring sound risk assessment and policy administration. Established in 1925 and headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, the company's value proposition lies in its comprehensive support of the Erie Insurance Exchange, enabling efficient and effective insurance offerings.

ERIE|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

7,000 shares

$1.4M

Sold (1Y)

0 shares

Cook CodyExecutive Vice President

J7.209 shares2026-09-30

DaBreo AnthonySenior Vice President, Life

J4.817 shares2026-09-30

Shine SarahExecutive Vice President

J6.641 shares2026-09-30

Cook CodyExecutive Vice President

J4.415 shares2026-08-31

DaBreo AnthonySenior Vice President, Life

J0.779 shares2026-08-31

ERIE|Fundamentals

Bullish

Overall: Bullish

✓Revenue growing year over year

✓Positive net margin

✓Positive operating cash flow

Net Margin

13.8%

Revenue CAGR

2.5%

Current Ratio

1.27x

Return on Equity

24.5%

ERIE|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Erie Indemnity Company, established in 1925 and headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, serves as the managing entity for the Erie Insurance Exchange, providing comprehensive insurance lifecycle services including underwriting, policy issuance, renewals, and sales and marketing initiatives. Operating within the financial services sector and specifically the insurance brokerage industry, the company’s value proposition centers on enabling efficient and effective insurance offerings for the Exchange’s members. Recent quarterly performance shows a mixed trajectory: Q4 2024 EPS of $2.908 beat the $2.82 estimate while revenue reached $924.09 million; Q1 2025 EPS fell short of the $3.19 estimate at $2.6526, yet revenue rose to $989.40 million; Q2 2025 EPS of $3.3463 slightly missed the $3.55 estimate, with revenue up to $1.0601 billion; Q3 2025 EPS of $3.488 surpassed the $3.37 estimate, and revenue climbed to $1.0667 billion; Q4 2025 EPS turned negative at –$0.33 versus a $1.59 estimate, while revenue of $951.02 million fell short of the $975.56 million estimate. The pattern indicates earnings volatility with revenue growth in most quarters but a pronounced downturn in Q4 2025. Historically, the company has shown a YoY revenue increase in the 2024–2025 period, with EPS generally beating estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, though the Q4 2025 miss highlights potential margin pressure. Recent news underscores a significant catalyst: Bloomberg’s removal of Erie Indemnity from its 500 index, likely triggering index‑tracking fund sell‑offs and tightening supply, which may depress the stock price. The news also highlights a 13‑point improvement in the combined ratio and a rebound in underwriting profitability, suggesting core business traction amid rising reinsurance costs. Forward‑looking watch points for investors include monitoring the upcoming earnings guidance for 2027, particularly any updates on capital deployment strategy, fee‑income growth from the Exchange, and regulatory changes that could impact underwriting risk. Additionally, keeping an eye on policy issuance trends and the progress of digital transformation initiatives will be key to assessing whether cost efficiencies translate into sustained margin improvement.}}

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EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$3.41	-	-
Q2'26	$3.35	$3.45	+3.0%
Q1'26	$3.06	$2.88	-5.9%
Q4'25	$1.59	$-0.33	-120.8%
Q3'25	$3.37	$3.49	+3.5%
Q2'25	$3.55	$3.35	-5.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$1.1B	-	-
Q2'26	$1.1B	$1.1B	-1.8%
Q1'26	-	$1.0B	-
Q4'25	$976M	$951M	-2.5%
Q3'25	-	$1.1B	-
Q2'25	-	$1.1B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

ERIE|Monthly Returns

Market Data

ERIE Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL50/100

$230.11−$0.14 (0.1%)

Market cap: 10.89B
P/E ratio: 18.9
Day range: $225.30 – $231.27
News sentiment: 47/100 · Neutral

52-week range+12.5% off low · -30.4% from high

$204.63$330.54

Price $230.11

ERIE is in a holding pattern - neither trend nor momentum has taken control. In Financial Services, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Behaviour On Record

What ERIE's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 29.7% 78th pct
Below its peak: -57.7%
vs 200-day average: -6.5%
Up days (1y): 48%

Erie Indemnity Company is currently running 29.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ERIE's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 78th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 21.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ERIE is trading -57.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -19.1%, and the deepest was -38.9% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -6.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 23rd percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year ERIE closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, ERIE finished the month higher 9 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.2% and an average of +2.6%. Its strongest month historically has been June at +4.4% on average, its weakest March at -2.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ERIE has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 46 of 3,267 sessions (1.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +15.5% and -15.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, ERIE moved an average of 4.1% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -1.1% and a largest of -6.0%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ERIE's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of ERIE's sector?

Erie Indemnity Company sits in the Financials sector, currently ranked 12th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Insurance industry group, ERIE ranks 8th of 15 tracked industries, improving.

Sector rank: #12 of 12
Sector state: Improving
Sector rotation score: 18
Industry rank: #8 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for ERIE?

CallsPuts

For Erie Indemnity Company's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.04), with at-the-money implied volatility around 69.7%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.4% move by that expiry — a range of about $212.45–$236.79.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16): 0.04
ATM implied volatility: 69.7%
Total open interest: 844
Expected move by 2026-10-16: ±5.4% ($212.45–$236.79)

Peers & ETF holders

ERIE peers & ETF holders

Insurance BrokersMarket cap · today

ERIEYou're here$10.9B-0.06%
AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.$60.0B0.00%
AONAon plc$58.6B+0.04%
WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company$27.0B-0.02%
BROBrown & Brown, Inc.$21.5B-0.03%

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

47/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MIXED

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

Erie Indemnity announced that it will host a pre‑recorded conference call and webcast for its third quarter 2026 earnings. The event is scheduled to provide investors with a review of financial results and strategic updates. The company confirmed that the call will be available on its website and through a live streaming platform. No changes to guidance or material business developments were disclosed. The announcement is a routine communication for shareholders.

What did this article say?

Erie Indemnity is slated to report its third‑quarter earnings, with analysts projecting a modest decline in earnings per share. The forecast indicates a single‑digit drop, suggesting a slight contraction in profitability. The guidance reflects ongoing market pressures and competitive dynamics within the insurance sector. This outlook may temper investor expectations and could influence short‑term valuation metrics. The company’s financial performance remains a key focus for stakeholders.

What did this article say?

Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) has fallen 27.7% from its 52‑week peak, reflecting broader weakness in the financial services sector. Despite a recent 8.1% rise over the past three months, the stock still trails the XLF benchmark, indicating a relative underperformance. The company’s strong balance sheet and recurring management‑fee revenue remain intact, but market sentiment has shifted against it due to sector‑wide headwinds.

What did this article say?

Zacks has upgraded Erie Indemnity (ERIE) to a Buy rating, citing a favorable shift in earnings estimates that suggests stronger future profitability. The rating change reflects analysts’ confidence that the company’s earnings trajectory will improve, potentially driving buying pressure. This upgrade is expected to enhance investor sentiment and could support a short‑term rally in the stock price.

What did this article say?

Erie Indemnity reports a robust 25.5% return on invested capital and maintains a clean balance sheet with no debt, underscoring its solid financial footing. The company’s cash conversion remains strong, supporting ongoing dividend and share repurchase programs. However, the current price-to-earnings ratio of 22 places ERIE above many peers, suggesting a valuation premium that may temper upside potential.

What did this article say?

Bloomberg’s decision to drop Erie Indemnity from the 500 index will likely trigger selling pressure from index‑tracking funds, contributing to the company’s 25% decline in total shareholder return over the past year. The removal adds to existing volatility, though some analysts view the recent rebound as an opportunity to buy at a discount. The stock’s valuation remains high relative to peers, with a P/E of 23.3x versus 13.4x for the industry average, raising concerns about upside potential.

What did this article say?

Erie Indemnity’s recent 5‑year performance has pushed the stock up nearly 60%, yet valuation metrics suggest the shares are not a clear bargain. The Excess Returns intrinsic value estimate is close to the current price, while traditional multiples lean expensive. Future fee‑income growth from the Erie Insurance Exchange could support the valuation, but any pressure on underwriting margins or slower policy growth may limit upside.

What did this article say?

Erie Indemnity (ERIE) has lagged the broader market over the past year, yet analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The company’s underwriting and claims management remain solid, but recent regulatory scrutiny and rising reinsurance costs weigh on earnings. Analysts expect a gradual rebound as the firm expands its specialty lines and benefits from a more favorable risk environment.

What did this article say?

Argus Research has increased its target price for ERIE to $232, reflecting a more optimistic view of the company’s earnings trajectory. The upgrade signals confidence in ERIE’s financial performance and potential upside.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

NEUTRAL

Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.

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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

25 tracked managers · $2.24B combined position · 16 adding, 9 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
Vanguard Group Inc	▼ Sell	2,921,447	6.19%	$837.43M	2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.	▲ Buy	1,674,602	3.55%	$401.49M	2026-08-07
Invesco Ltd.	▲ Buy	1,091,087	2.31%	$261.59M	2026-08-14
Geode Capital Management, LLC	▲ Buy	899,461	1.91%	$215.00M	2026-08-12
Bank of America Corp	▲ Buy	526,267	1.12%	$126.17M	2026-08-14
Morgan Stanley	▲ Buy	513,784	1.09%	$123.18M	2026-08-13
Northern Trust Corp	▲ Buy	180,016	0.38%	$43.16M	2026-08-13
Norges Bank	▼ Sell	171,369	0.36%	$41.09M	2026-08-12
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	▼ Sell	151,630	0.32%	$36.35M	2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc	▲ Buy	147,885	0.31%	$35.46M	2026-08-03
Millennium Management LLC	▼ Sell	70,887	0.15%	$17.00M	2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co	▲ Buy	68,331	0.14%	$16.51M	2026-08-12
Voleon Capital Management LP	▲ Buy	58,260	0.12%	$13.97M	2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC	▲ Buy	57,083	0.12%	$13.69M	2026-09-02
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	▲ Buy	43,254	0.09%	$10.37M	2026-08-14
AQR Capital Management LLC	▲ Buy	34,537	0.07%	$8.21M	2026-08-14
Renaissance Technologies LLC	▲ Buy	31,991	0.07%	$7.67M	2026-08-13
Gotham Asset Management, LLC	▼ Sell	27,671	0.06%	$6.63M	2026-08-14
AllianceBernstein L.P.	▲ Buy	24,546	0.05%	$6.17M	2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company	▼ Sell	18,542	0.04%	$4.45M	2026-08-14
Prudential Financial Inc	▲ Buy	11,079	0.02%	$2.66M	2026-08-12
Marshall Wace, LLP	▲ Buy	10,196	0.02%	$2.44M	2026-08-13
Man Group plc	▼ Sell	9,874	0.02%	$2.37M	2026-08-14
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	▼ Sell	5,455	0.01%	$1.31M	2026-08-14
Caxton Associates LLP	▼ Sell	5,060	0.01%	$1.21M	2026-08-14

Q2 2026 flow:549.7K sh bought ($131.91M)99.7K sh sold ($23.90M)net +450.0K sh (+$108.01M)

Congressional Trading Activity

4 disclosed trades · ~$32.0K est. traded value · 3 buys, 1 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
John Fetterman	Senate	PA	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-03-30	2026-04-03
John Fetterman	Senate	PA	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-03-27	2026-04-03
Gilbert Cisneros	House	CA31	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-02-10	2026-03-09
Gilbert Cisneros	House	CA31	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-12-19	2026-01-12