DailyIQ
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Sector:Financial ServicesAll sectors
Last updated 1 hour ago

ERIE·Erie Indemnity Company

$.
+. (+.%)
High
$224.90
Open
$224.90
Market Cap
10.44B
52W High
$380.67
Low
$224.90
P. Close
$224.23
P/E
18.28
52W Low
$210.06
Fwd P/E
16.00
Mean Target
-
Technical Score (1D)
27
SELL
News Sentiment
45
MIXED
No summary available yet.
Earnings Summary
Erie Indemnity Company, the managing entity for the Erie Insurance Exchange, operates within the Financial Services sector, specifically the Insurance Brokers industry. The company provides comprehensive services supporting the Exchange's operations, including policy issuance, renewals, sales, marketing, and underwriting. Established in 1925 and headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, Erie Indemnity's core value lies in its integral role in enabling the efficient and effective delivery of insurance products by the Erie Insurance Exchange. Examining Erie Indemnity's recent earnings performance reveals a mixed trend. In Q1 2026, the company reported an actual EPS of $2.88 against an estimate of $3.06, marking a miss. This follows a strong beat in Q4 2025, where actual EPS of -0.33 significantly surpassed the estimate of $1.59, albeit with negative revenue growth. Prior to that, Q3 2025 saw an EPS beat ($3.488 actual vs. $3.37 estimate), continuing a pattern of exceeding expectations. However, Q2 2025 showed a miss ($3.3463 actual vs. $3.55 estimate), and Q1 2025 also missed expectations ($2.6526 actual vs. $3.19 estimate). Revenue trends are less clear due to missing estimates in several quarters, but Q2 2026 revenue estimate stands at $1.11 billion. Historically, Erie Indemnity has demonstrated a capacity for revenue growth, as seen in the increase from $924.09 million in Q4 2024 to $1.06 billion in Q3 2025. Despite some EPS misses, the company has shown an ability to beat analyst estimates in certain periods, such as Q3 2025 and Q4 2025. The significant EPS miss in Q4 2025, however, warrants attention, contrasting with the positive revenue figures reported in preceding quarters. The overall trajectory suggests a pattern of operational resilience, though earnings per share have shown volatility. Recent news highlights a significant improvement in Erie Indemnity's combined ratio to 99.4% in Q1 2026, driven by reduced catastrophe losses and better underwriting, leading to increased net income. However, direct written premium growth decelerated to 3.6% due to competitive pricing. Analyst sentiment has shifted, with Argus Research lowering its price target to $218.00, reflecting adjusted valuation expectations. The company also announced a leadership transition with Jonathan Hurtaggen appointed as Chairman of the Board. Looking ahead, investors will be watching for stabilization in direct written premium growth amidst competitive market conditions. Key will be the company's ability to sustain operational improvements, particularly in its combined ratio, and to navigate pricing pressures effectively. Monitoring future analyst commentary regarding the rationale for target adjustments will also be important for understanding evolving market perceptions and potential future performance drivers.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.91$0.35$1.61$2.87$4.13Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$3.35 - -
Q1'26$3.06$2.88-5.9%
Q4'25$1.59$-0.33-120.8%
Q3'25$3.37$3.49+3.5%
Q2'25$3.55$3.35-5.7%
Q1'25$3.19$2.65-16.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$927M$979M$1.0B$1.1B$1.1BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$1.1B - -
Q1'26 - $1.0B -
Q4'25$976M$951M-2.5%
Q3'25 - $1.1B -
Q2'25 - $1.1B -
Q1'25 - $989M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

ERIE Stock Snapshot

ERIE is currently trading at $224.90, giving Erie Indemnity Company a market cap of 10.44B and a P/E ratio of 18.3. Today's range spans $224.90–$224.90, with shares opening at $224.90 and moving up $0.67 (0.3%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 27/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 45/100.

Over the past year ERIE has traded between $210.06 and $380.67 - the current price is +7.1% off the 52-week low and -40.9% from the high.

Factor models are actively underweighting ERIE: large-cap, Financial Services, 10.44B market cap, 27/100 (SELL), neutral sentiment (45/100). Price: $224.90 (near 52-week lows). (P/E: 18.3) Momentum and trend-following strategies reduce exposure when scores drop below the 27/100 threshold; quality factors recalibrate; low-vol strategies find better risk-adjusted alternatives elsewhere in the sector. Annual range: $210.06–$380.67. The systematic de-risking compounds the fundamental concern.

The current SELL phase for ERIE (27/100) at $224.90 (near 52-week lows) suggests that the market is discounting either a fundamental deterioration or a sector headwind that hasn't fully appeared in the earnings line yet. Sentiment at 45/100 (neutral) confirms that news flow is not providing a counternarrative. At 10.44B in Financial Services capitalization, ERIE has the liquidity for institutional exits to be orderly — but orderly doesn't mean shallow within the $210.06–$380.67 range.

Recent News Coverage

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