DailyIQ
Last updated1 minute ago

ET·Energy Transfer LP

$21.36
-0.13 (-0.60%)
High
$21.63
Open
$21.52
Market Cap
74.20B
52W High
$21.84
Low
$21.34
P. Close
$21.36
P/E
14.03
52W Low
$16.18
Fwd P/E
12.28
DailyIQ Est.
$25.24
Inst. Ownership
12.7%
Short Interest
0.76%
Days to Cover
3.3
Technical Score (1D)
82
BUY
News Sentiment
62
BULLISH
Energy Transfer’s latest analyst consensus upgrade to “Strong Buy” and its 6.3 % dividend yield underscore a firm‑wide confidence that cash flow will continue to support dividend growth, a key driver for the next 1–10 trading days. The upgrade follows the company’s recent earnings, which showed robust cash generation and a stable operating margin, reinforcing the view that dividend payouts can be maintained or even increased. Traders should watch the upcoming earnings release for any guidance on future cash‑flow projections, as a tighter forecast could temper the dividend narrative. In parallel, Energy Transfer’s announced move of its primary listing from the NYSE to the Texas Stock Exchange in early October is poised to enhance investor visibility and potentially lift valuation by aligning the firm with a regional exchange that reflects its Texas‑centric operations. The transition could also affect analyst coverage and trading volume, so monitoring post‑listing trading activity and any changes in analyst recommendations will be important. The company’s recent rise to the top of Zacks’ most‑searched list and its outperformance of the S&P 500 and the broader oil‑and‑gas pipeline sector suggest that market sentiment is currently favorable, but this momentum is largely driven by sector dynamics rather than new corporate catalysts. As the pipeline sector remains sensitive to commodity price swings and regulatory developments, traders should keep an eye on any shifts in oil‑price forecasts or pipeline expansion approvals that could influence Energy Transfer’s operating environment.
Earnings Summary
Energy Transfer LP operates as a U.S. midstream energy infrastructure company, transporting and storing natural gas, NGLs, and crude oil across a network of over 32,000 miles of gas pipelines and 5,700 miles of NGL pipelines, while also marketing motor fuels under Sunoco and EcoMaxx brands. In Q4 2024, the company reported EPS of $0.29 versus an estimate of $0.37, and revenue of $19.5 billion, slightly above the $19.4 billion estimate, indicating a modest revenue beat but an EPS miss. The following year, Q4 2025 EPS fell to $0.25 against a $0.38 estimate, while revenue rose to $25.3 billion, a 3.1% increase, showing continued top‑line growth but earnings lagging expectations. Q2 2026 EPS surged to $0.59 against a $0.39 estimate, with revenue jumping to $34.3 billion from an $29.1 billion estimate, reflecting a strong earnings rebound and significant revenue upside. Historically, Energy Transfer has displayed a mixed earnings trajectory, with revenue consistently beating estimates but EPS often missing, suggesting that cost pressures or capital expenditures may be eroding profitability. Recent news reports a sharp divergence between gas and oil businesses, with Texas regulation and data‑center demand expected to lift gas output, while oil remains volatile; insider buying and a 6.4% yield supported by fee‑based contracts highlight investor confidence. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to confirm the gas‑output upside, monitor regulatory developments in Texas that could affect oil operations, and track any changes to capacity‑utilization guidance, as these will shape the company’s ability to sustain its high dividend yield and manage earnings volatility.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.20$0.31$0.42$0.53$0.64Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.41 - -
Q2'26$0.39$0.59+52.2%
Q4'25$0.38$0.25-34.1%
Q4'24$0.37$0.29-22.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$17.3B$22.1B$26.9B$31.7B$36.6BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$31.5B - -
Q2'26$29.1B$34.3B+18.0%
Q4'25$24.8B$25.3B+2.0%
Q4'24 - $19.5B -

Market Data

ET Stock Snapshot

BUY82/100
$21.36$0.13 (0.6%)
Market cap
74.20B
P/E ratio
14.0
Day range
$21.34 – $21.63
News sentiment
62/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$24.58 (+15.1%)
Consensus
Buy · 32 analysts
52-week range+32.0% off low · -2.2% from high
$16.18$21.84
Price $21.36 DailyIQ Est. $25.24

The signal on ET is bullish: price action is confirming the underlying trend, not fighting it. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into ET?

CHEAP

At today's price, Energy Transfer LP needs to grow free cash flow about 11.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.65% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 51.1% a year, so the market is asking for 39.4 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis ET looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
11.7%
Historical FCF CAGR
51.1%
Growth gap
-39.4 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.65%
Beta
0.72

Behaviour On Record

What ET's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
13.0% 5th pct
Below its peak
-39.1%
vs 200-day average
+12.9%
Up days (1y)
50%

Energy Transfer LP is currently running 13.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ET's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 5th percentile unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 27.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ET is trading -39.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -27.9%, and the deepest was -70.2% in 2016. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +12.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 80th percentile a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year ET closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, ET finished the month higher 4 of 13 times, with a median return of -3.1% and an average of -3.9%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +11.6% on average, its weakest March at -3.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ET has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 176 of 3,267 sessions (5.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.8% and -13.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ET's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of ET's sector?

Energy Transfer LP sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for ET?

CallsPuts

For Energy Transfer LP's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.17), with at-the-money implied volatility around 24.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±2.1% move by that expiry — a range of about $21.03–$21.93.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.17
ATM implied volatility
24.8%
Total open interest
82,828
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±2.1% ($21.03–$21.93)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on ET?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Energy Transfer LP to Overweight on Sep 4, 2026 with a price target of $25 (from $24). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP MorganOverweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 4, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$24 → $25
Aug 18, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$23 → $25
Aug 12, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$23 → $25
Aug 10, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$24 → $25
Aug 7, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$23 → $24
Aug 5, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$23 → $24
Jul 21, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$21 → $23
Jul 16, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$23 → $24
May 27, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$21 → $23
May 14, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$22 → $23
May 13, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$22 → $23
May 12, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Outperform$22 → $24

ET Competitive Positioning

Energy Transfer LP (ET) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas Midstream on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.