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ET·Energy Transfer LP

$21.13
+0.08 (+0.38%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$21.16+0.03 (+0.14%)
High
$21.28
Open
$21.02
Market Cap
72.69B
52W High
$21.85
Low
$20.95
P. Close
$21.13
P/E
13.74
52W Low
$16.18
Fwd P/E
12.09
DailyIQ Est.
$25.24
Inst. Ownership
12.8%
Short Interest
0.77%
Days to Cover
3.3
Technical Score (1D)
55
BUY
News Sentiment
77
BULLISH
Energy Transfer’s latest earnings report shows a sharp rebound in cash generation, with Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA climbing to $5.1 billion from $3.9 billion a year earlier and the company lifting its full‑year guidance to $18.8‑$19.1 billion, its second upward revision this year. The lift is largely driven by a surge in commodity‑price‑driven cash flow that has more than doubled from Q4 2025, giving the company a comfortable cushion to cover dividends. Management cautions that the commodity volatility that produced the recent beat may not recur in the back half of 2026, and several high‑capex projects remain in early phases, which could temper future cash flows. The company’s pipeline network is positioned to benefit from the data‑center boom, with key projects such as Desert Southwest still years away from earnings, suggesting a longer‑term upside to infrastructure demand. The raised guidance and improved free cash flow imply a stronger balance sheet, potentially supporting higher dividend payouts or share buybacks in the next 1–10 trading days. However, the reliance on commodity price swings introduces short‑term uncertainty, and the high capital‑expenditure trajectory could compress margins if costs rise. Watch for the next earnings release to see if the commodity‑price‑driven momentum sustains and whether the company can maintain its free‑cash‑flow coverage amid ongoing capex. Also monitor any updates on the Desert Southwest project timeline, as a delay could affect the projected infrastructure upside.
Earnings Summary
Energy Transfer LP is a U.S. midstream energy infrastructure company that transports and stores natural gas, NGLs, and crude oil across a network of over 32,000 miles of pipelines and associated facilities. The firm also markets motor fuels under the Sunoco and EcoMaxx brands and provides compression and gas‑cleaning services. In Q4 2025, Energy Transfer reported EPS of $0.25 versus an estimate of $0.38, while revenue rose to $25.32 billion from $24.82 billion in Q4 2024, indicating a 2.0% YoY increase; in Q2 2026, EPS surged to $0.59 against an estimate of $0.39, and revenue jumped to $34.33 billion from $25.32 billion, a 35% YoY rise. Historically, the company has delivered revenue growth in each quarter, but EPS has been volatile, with a miss in Q4 2025 and a strong beat in Q2 2026. Recent analyst coverage notes a “Strong Buy” upgrade and a 6.3% dividend yield, underscoring confidence in cash flow and dividend sustainability; the company’s move to list on the Texas Stock Exchange may enhance visibility and trading volume. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings release for guidance on future cash‑flow projections and any changes to dividend policy, as well as for updates on pipeline expansion plans that could reinforce the positive narrative and support continued revenue growth.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.20$0.31$0.42$0.53$0.64Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.41 - -
Q2'26$0.39$0.59+52.2%
Q4'25$0.38$0.25-34.1%
Q4'24$0.37$0.29-22.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$17.3B$22.1B$26.9B$31.7B$36.6BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$32.0B - -
Q2'26$29.1B$34.3B+18.0%
Q4'25$24.8B$25.3B+2.0%
Q4'24 - $19.5B -

Market Data

ET Stock Snapshot

HOLD55/100
$21.16+$0.03 (0.1%)
Market cap
72.69B
P/E ratio
13.7
Day range
$20.95 – $21.28
News sentiment
77/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$24.58 (+16.2%)
Consensus
Buy · 32 analysts
52-week range+30.8% off low · -3.2% from high
$16.18$21.85
Price $21.16 DailyIQ Est. $25.24

Energy Transfer LP is consolidating: price is in the upper part of its 52-week range without a decisive push either way. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into ET?

CHEAP

At today's price, Energy Transfer LP needs to grow free cash flow about 11.3% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.62% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 51.1% a year, so the market is asking for 39.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis ET looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
11.3%
Historical FCF CAGR
51.1%
Growth gap
-39.8 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.62%
Beta
0.72

Behaviour On Record

What ET's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
10.6% 2nd pct
Below its peak
-40.0%
vs 200-day average
+10.7%
Up days (1y)
50%

Energy Transfer LP is currently running 10.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ET's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 2nd percentile unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 27.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ET is trading -40.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -27.9%, and the deepest was -70.2% in 2016. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +10.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 74th percentile a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year ET closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, ET finished the month higher 3 of 13 times, with a median return of -3.1% and an average of -4.5%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +11.6% on average, its weakest September at -4.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ET has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 176 of 3,268 sessions (5.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.8% and -13.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ET's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of ET's sector?

Energy Transfer LP sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
30

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for ET?

CallsPuts

For Energy Transfer LP's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.80), with at-the-money implied volatility around 20.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±2.8% move by that expiry — a range of about $20.51–$21.69.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.80
ATM implied volatility
20.9%
Total open interest
9,857
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±2.8% ($20.51–$21.69)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on ET?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Energy Transfer LP to Overweight on Sep 4, 2026 with a price target of $25 (from $24). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP MorganOverweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 4, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$24 → $25
Aug 18, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$23 → $25
Aug 12, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$23 → $25
Aug 10, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$24 → $25
Aug 7, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$23 → $24
Aug 5, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$23 → $24
Jul 21, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$21 → $23
Jul 16, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$23 → $24
May 27, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$21 → $23
May 14, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$22 → $23
May 13, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$22 → $23
May 12, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Outperform$22 → $24

ET Competitive Positioning

Energy Transfer LP (ET) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas Midstream on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.