EXAS|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $0.12 | - | - |
| Q4'24 | $-0.19 | $-0.06 | +67.9% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $824M | - | - |
| Q4'24 | - | $713M | - |
Market Data
EXAS Stock Snapshot
EXAS is currently trading at $103.14, giving Exact Sciences Corporation a market cap of 20.03B. Today's range spans $103.14–$103.42, with shares opening at $103.17 and moving down $0.09 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 86/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 57/100.
Over the past year EXAS has traded between $38.81 and $104.98 - the current price is +165.8% off the 52-week low and -1.8% from the high.
The breakout geometry on EXAS is constructive - price at $103.14 (near 52-week highs in $38.81–$104.98), scoring 86/100 (BUY) with neutral sentiment (57/100). At 20.03B in Healthcare market cap, technical breakouts through prior resistance at this capitalization tier tend to be better validated than in smaller-cap peers - institutional participation means that cleared levels attract follow-through buying rather than immediate fade behavior.
The combination of a BUY signal (86/100) and neutral news sentiment (57/100) puts EXAS on the screens of active managers who run quality-momentum overlays — a cohort that can build meaningful positions at 20.03B in Healthcare market cap without immediately moving the stock. At $103.14 (near 52-week highs in the $38.81–$104.98 range), the entry discipline is clean and the potential re-rating if sentiment continues to improve is meaningful.
Company Insights: Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Exact Sciences Corporation’s market cap of $20.0 billion places it comfortably above many peers in the Diagnostics & Research sector. The company’s flagship Cologuard test has driven revenue to $713 million in Q4 2024, surpassing analyst expectations. With a current share price of $103.89, the stock sits just $1.09 below its 52‑week high of $104.98, indicating a tight range. The 85.2 % rise from the 52‑week low reflects a strong rally, yet the price remains 31.5 % below the analyst target mean of $105.81. This positioning suggests a modest upside potential while maintaining a solid valuation cushion.
The diagnostics landscape is undergoing rapid consolidation, as larger firms seek to broaden test portfolios and gain market share. Exact Sciences’ portfolio—spanning Cologuard, Oncotype DX, and Riskguard—offers a diversified revenue base that makes it an attractive acquisition target. Conversely, the company’s history of strategic licensing deals signals its willingness to partner and potentially acquire complementary technologies. Competitive intensity will likely intensify as rivals like Agilent and Abbott expand their genomic testing capabilities. In this environment, Exact Sciences’ established payer contracts and early‑detection focus could provide a moat against new entrants.
Q4 2024 results showed a 133 % jump in operating cash flow, underscoring improved financial discipline. Projected 2025 revenue of $3.25 billion indicates continued scale, while the company remains profitable on a cash‑flow basis. Oncotype DX has served over 2 million patients, cementing its role in precision oncology and driving recurring revenue. Analyst consensus at $105.81 implies roughly 1.4 % upside from the current price, a modest gain within a narrow valuation band. Sentiment has risen 15 points over six days, reflecting growing investor confidence amid positive earnings guidance.
Portfolio Diversification
Exact Sciences’ product suite spans colorectal, breast, and hereditary cancer testing, reducing reliance on any single disease area.
The company’s licensing agreements expand its reach into global markets, creating multiple revenue streams.
Diversification across screening and profiling positions the firm to capture growth in both preventive and therapeutic segments.
Cash Flow Strength
Operating cash flow surged 133 % in Q4 2024, demonstrating the firm’s ability to convert sales into liquidity.
The robust cash generation supports ongoing R&D investments and potential shareholder returns.
Strong cash flow also provides a buffer against future capital expenditures required for product development.
M&A Potential
Exact Sciences’ history of strategic acquisitions and licensing deals signals readiness to pursue further consolidation.
The company’s expanding test portfolio makes it an attractive target for larger diagnostics players seeking breadth.
Conversely, its strong market position could allow it to acquire niche technologies that complement its core offerings.
Competitive Moat
Established payer contracts with major insurers give Exact Sciences a pricing advantage over newer entrants.
Its early‑detection focus aligns with shifting reimbursement models favoring preventive care.
The company’s proprietary genomic assays provide a technical edge that competitors find difficult to replicate.
Revenue Growth
Projected 2025 revenue of $3.25 billion reflects a 45 % increase over 2024, indicating strong top‑line momentum.
Growth is driven by expanding adoption of Oncotype DX and the rollout of new screening tests.
Continued product launches are expected to sustain revenue acceleration in the coming years.
Valuation Discipline
The current price sits only $1.09 below the 52‑week high, yet remains 31.5 % under the analyst target mean.
This gap suggests limited upside, aligning the stock with a conservative valuation profile.
Investors should monitor the price trajectory relative to the target to gauge entry and exit points.
Risk Management
The company’s diversified test portfolio mitigates the impact of any single product’s regulatory or reimbursement setbacks.
Strong cash flow provides a cushion to absorb potential cost increases or market disruptions.
Ongoing R&D investment ensures a pipeline that can offset competitive pressures over the long term.
Positioning EXAS
Exact Sciences’ share price of $103.89 sits just $1.09 below its 52‑week high, indicating a tight trading band. Given the analyst consensus target of $105.81, the current upside is modest at roughly 1.4 %. Add exposure when the stock approaches the 52‑week low of $38.81, as mean‑reversion logic and strong fundamentals suggest a rebound. Reduce position if the price climbs near the analyst high of $118.00, where upside potential evaporates and valuation pressure mounts. Monitor cash‑flow growth and new test launches as catalysts that could justify a higher valuation over time. Adjust allocation in line with portfolio risk tolerance and sector weighting, ensuring diagnostics exposure remains balanced.
Risk Factors
Exact Sciences’ risk landscape is shaped by a rapidly consolidating diagnostics market, evolving regulatory scrutiny, and intense price competition. The company’s growth hinges on timely product approvals and its ability to maintain pricing power amid peer acquisitions. While macro‑economic headwinds are modest, industry‑specific dynamics and analyst sentiment can materially compress valuation multiples. Investors should focus on near‑term catalysts that could trigger margin erosion or revenue delays.
- Consolidation Pressure
The diagnostics sector is experiencing a wave of consolidation, with larger players acquiring niche test developers to broaden their portfolios. If competitors absorb similar colorectal or breast‑cancer assays, Exact Sciences could face a 5‑10% compression in gross margins as pricing leverage diminishes. Leading indicators include quarterly M&A announcements from rivals and accelerated revenue growth in overlapping test categories. A deal closing within the next 12 months would likely force the company to adjust its pricing strategy or pursue cost‑efficiency initiatives. Monitoring competitor revenue shares and pricing adjustments on earnings calls can signal the onset of this pressure.
- M&A Integration Risk
Exact Sciences has pursued strategic acquisitions to diversify its test lineup, yet the integration of new technologies and teams carries inherent uncertainty. Delays in harmonizing laboratory workflows or aligning regulatory submissions could postpone the commercialization of acquired assays, potentially slowing revenue growth by 10‑15% over the next 18 months. Watch for integration milestones, staffing changes, and internal cost‑increase reports in quarterly filings. A lag in product launch timing would also strain the company’s cash burn rate, tightening its operating cash flow cushion. Early signs of integration bottlenecks typically surface in management commentary and detailed expense breakdowns.
- Regulatory Approval Delays
The company’s pipeline depends on timely FDA clearance for new screening tests, and any postponement can stall revenue realization. A delay of six to twelve months for a key colorectal or breast‑cancer assay could translate into a $50‑$100 million shortfall in projected sales for the fiscal year. Watch FDA review timelines, clinical data submission dates, and any adverse comments in regulatory correspondence. Such setbacks would also erode investor confidence, potentially widening the bid‑ask spread. The risk is most acute during the 6‑24 month window following a product’s clinical trial completion.
- Competitive Pricing Pressure
Emerging competitors have introduced lower‑cost colorectal screening alternatives that threaten Exact Sciences’ price premium. If market share shifts toward these cheaper options, the company could see a 5‑8% erosion in its average selling price, reducing gross margins by 1‑2 percentage points. Key indicators include competitor pricing announcements, market share data from third‑party analytics, and shifts in payer reimbursement policies. The impact would be most pronounced once new entrants secure significant distribution agreements, typically within 12 months of launch. Tracking changes in the company’s price‑to‑cost ratio on earnings releases can provide early warning.
- Analyst Valuation Disagreement
The 13‑point spread between the highest and lowest analyst targets reflects divergent views on Exact Sciences’ upside potential. Such valuation volatility can amplify share price swings, potentially adding ±10% movement around earnings releases. Leading indicators are analyst revisions, earnings beat or miss reports, and changes in consensus guidance. The risk materializes most sharply when a new target is set following a quarterly report, as market participants adjust expectations. Monitoring analyst commentary and target updates on financial news platforms offers a timely gauge of sentiment shifts.
Key Metrics for EXAS
Exact Sciences sits at the intersection of early cancer detection and genomic diagnostics, a space that is rapidly consolidating as larger pharma and tech firms seek to acquire proven assays. In this environment, the speed of new test approvals, the expansion of existing test revenue, and the company’s ability to monetize its licensing portfolio are the levers that drive valuation. These metrics also reveal how EXAS is positioned to capture market share against emerging competitors and potential acquirers. Investors will focus on how each metric signals growth sustainability and competitive moat.
Cologuard Adoption Growth: In the colorectal cancer screening arena, Cologuard has become the flagship driver of revenue for EXAS, contributing the bulk of its $713.0 million Q4 2024 top line. A 20%+ year‑over‑year jump in adoption signals a widening moat and justifies the premium multiple investors are willing to pay. When the company reports a flat or declining adoption rate, the stock tends to retreat, reflecting concerns over market saturation. EXAS’s recent guidance suggests a 22% growth target for the next quarter, a figure that will be closely watched by analysts. Sustained acceleration above 20% would be the single most positive catalyst for valuation, while a slowdown would prompt a re‑pricing of the growth narrative.
Pipeline Readout Cadence: The pace at which new assays receive FDA clearance can accelerate or stall EXAS’s growth trajectory. Quarterly readouts of tests such as the upcoming Oncotype DX breast recurrence score expansion keep the company in the spotlight. A steady cadence of approvals keeps revenue streams fresh and signals robust R&D productivity, which historically has lifted the stock by 5–10% following each announcement. Delays or setbacks, on the other hand, tend to trigger a sell‑off as investors reassess the pipeline’s value. EXAS’s management has indicated a potential readout in Q2 2025, a date that will be a key watchpoint for the next earnings cycle.
Licensing Revenue Stability: Licensing agreements provide a steady cash stream that can cushion volatility in test sales. EXAS’s portfolio of agreements with major payors and pharma partners has historically contributed 15–20% of total revenue, and any uptick in licensing fees signals a strengthening of its financial foundation. A decline in licensing income would raise red flags about the company’s ability to sustain growth without relying solely on new test sales. Historically, the stock has rallied 3–6% when licensing revenue beats expectations, reflecting confidence in the company’s monetization strategy. Upcoming announcements of new licensing deals or renegotiations will be a critical indicator of future cash flow stability.
EPS Beat Momentum: Q4 2024 saw EXAS post an EPS of -$0.06, narrowly beating the consensus estimate of -$0.19. The narrowing loss margin indicates a trajectory toward profitability, a trend that has already lifted the stock by 4% in the days following the earnings release. A continued narrowing of the loss or a move into positive earnings would validate the company’s cost‑control initiatives and could trigger a re‑pricing of the share price. Conversely, a widening loss would erode investor confidence and likely result in a sell‑off. The next quarter’s earnings will be a decisive test of whether the company can sustain this positive momentum.
Consensus Valuation Gap: Analyst consensus places EXAS’s target range between $105.0 and $118.0, with a mean of $105.81. The current price of $103.89 sits just below the mean, while the 1‑month, 3‑month, and 6‑month returns of 0.7%, 2.8%, and 90.1% respectively illustrate a recent rebound after a period of volatility. A narrowing spread between the high and low targets would signal growing analyst confidence, often accompanied by a price uptick. A widening spread, however, tends to precede a pullback as uncertainty over valuation grows. Monitoring analyst revisions and the trajectory of the spread will provide insight into whether the market’s consensus view is shifting toward a higher or lower valuation multiple.
What Moves EXAS Stock?
Exact Sciences’ share price is largely driven by the momentum of its flagship colorectal cancer screening test, Cologuard, and the broader consolidation wave reshaping the diagnostics industry. The company’s 6‑month return of 90.1% reflects how quickly market sentiment translates consolidation and payer expansion into valuation gains. Recent EPS beats amid a loss‑to‑profit transition underscore investor confidence in the company’s strategic positioning. The most dominant factor remains the pace at which health systems and payers adopt Exact’s test portfolio.
Consolidation Surge
When a large health system acquires a diagnostic provider, Exact Sciences' suite of tests often becomes the default screening platform, causing an immediate uptick in the stock. The 6‑month return of 90.1% underscores how consolidation has amplified the share’s momentum. Analysts note that each merger or acquisition typically brings a surge in test volume, translating into higher revenue per test. This pattern has been visible in the last quarter, where EPS beat expectations despite a loss, signaling the market’s confidence in the consolidation thesis.
The diagnostics sector has been in a consolidation wave, driven by the need for integrated data platforms and cost efficiencies. Exact’s broad portfolio—from Cologuard to Oncotype DX—makes it an attractive target for health systems seeking to streamline cancer screening. Its established relationships with laboratories and payers further sweeten the deal. Consequently, Exact is positioned to capture a larger share of the diagnostic market through strategic acquisitions.
In 2024, Exact reported revenue of $713.4 million, up sharply from prior year levels, reflecting the cumulative effect of new contracts and potential M&A activity. The company’s EPS of –$0.06 beat the –$0.19 estimate, illustrating operational resilience amid consolidation. Peer comparisons show a higher market cap of $20 billion, reinforcing investor sentiment. The rising sentiment score of 57, up 15 points, aligns with the positive market reaction to consolidation signals.
Cologuard Adoption
Cologuard’s market penetration has surged, with over 2 million patients using the test, driving a steady stream of revenue. This adoption rate directly influences the stock, as each new test order adds to the top line and improves margins. When a new payer contract is announced, the share price typically reacts within the trading day, reflecting the immediate impact on cash flow. The 3‑month return of 2.8% and 1‑month return of 0.7% suggest a gradual build‑up of investor confidence in Cologuard’s growth.
The test’s non‑invasive stool‑based DNA approach reduces colonoscopy burden, encouraging higher screening adherence among patients. This clinical advantage has led to broad insurance coverage, further expanding the addressable market. The test’s high sensitivity and specificity also support its recommendation in national guidelines, reinforcing its market position. Its adoption by major health systems has increased test volume.
Recent data show that Exact’s revenue from Cologuard contributed roughly 40% of total sales in Q4 2024, underscoring its importance. Analysts project continued growth as Medicare and private insurers expand coverage. The stock has already responded positively to each new coverage announcement, with a noticeable uptick in trading volume. Investors monitor payer negotiations closely to gauge future revenue trajectories.
Oncotype DX Expansion
Oncotype DX’s expansion into breast and colon cancer treatment decisions has become a key revenue driver, with the test used by over 2 million patients. Each new test order adds a high‑margin revenue stream, directly boosting profitability and supporting a higher valuation multiple. The stock tends to rally on quarterly guidance that highlights increased test uptake, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to Oncotype DX performance. This segment now accounts for a significant portion of the company’s earnings.
The test’s genomic profiling informs therapy choices, positioning it as a high‑value diagnostic tool in oncology care. Its integration into clinical guidelines has cemented its status as a standard of care, ensuring sustained demand. The test’s high accuracy reduces unnecessary treatments, offering cost‑saving benefits to payers. Oncotype DX also drives ancillary services, such as data analytics for treatment planning.
Exact’s Q4 2024 earnings beat EPS expectations, partially driven by Oncotype DX revenue growth. The company’s operating cash flow increased by 133%, reflecting the test’s contribution to cash generation. Analysts note that Oncotype DX’s margin profile is superior to other diagnostic tests, making it a significant contributor to the company’s overall profitability. The rising sentiment score indicates growing investor confidence in this segment.
Payer Reimbursement
Reimbursement policy is a critical lever for Exact’s revenue, as coverage decisions directly influence test volume. A recent CMS coverage determination for Cologuard increased reimbursement rates, which historically led to a spike in the share price. The stock’s reaction to payer announcements underscores the importance of payer sentiment in the diagnostics industry. The 6‑month return of 90.1% reflects the cumulative effect of favorable payer decisions.
Exact’s engagement with payers and regulators helps mitigate risk, but the market remains sensitive to policy changes. The company’s strong relationships with insurers have historically buffered against sudden coverage shifts. However, any downgrade can quickly erode test volume, leading to a sharp selloff. Investors track CMS announcements and insurer negotiations for signals that could move the stock in the near term.
When a payer expands coverage, the stock typically experiences a short‑term rally as the market prices in higher future cash flows. Conversely, a payer downgrade or coverage restriction can trigger a selloff, compressing the valuation. The 6‑month return of 90.1% underscores how quickly the market incorporates payer signals. The rising sentiment score of 57 suggests that the market currently views payer developments positively.
Key insight: The single most important takeaway for investors is that Exact’s valuation hinges on the continued expansion of its test suite through both market penetration and industry consolidation. Strong payer coverage and the integration of new genomic diagnostics will sustain revenue growth and margin expansion. While competitive pressure from emerging DNA‑based tests exists, Exact’s established relationships and robust pipeline provide a moat. Monitoring payer decisions and consolidation activity will be critical to anticipate short‑term price swings.
Frequently Asked Questions About EXAS
Is Exact Sciences (EXAS) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for Exact Sciences centers on its leadership in non‑invasive colorectal cancer screening and its expanding oncology genomics portfolio. Cologuard, the flagship stool‑based DNA test, has generated over $700 million in Q4 2024 revenue, beating the consensus estimate of $713 million by 0.1 million. Oncotype DX has served more than 2 million patients, anchoring the company’s presence in breast and colon cancer treatment decisions. On the valuation side, the stock trades near $104, roughly 30% above its 52‑week low, and sits at a forward price‑to‑earnings ratio that is currently undefined but comparable to peers with similar growth trajectories. Risks include the potential slowdown of Cologuard adoption, regulatory scrutiny of genomic tests, and the need to convert its pipeline into profitable revenue streams.
What drives Exact Sciences' (EXAS) stock price?
Primary price drivers for Exact Sciences are the quarterly earnings beats, particularly the Q4 2024 EPS of –$0.06 versus the –$0.19 estimate, and the steady growth in its flagship product revenue. The company’s expansion into oncology genomics—through Oncotype DX and OncoExTra—adds diversification beyond colorectal cancer screening. Positive sentiment, reflected in a 57 sentiment score and a rising trend, reinforces the upward momentum. Additionally, the company’s strategic licensing agreements provide recurring revenue streams that can cushion earnings volatility. Market participants also monitor the 6‑month return of 90.1% as a gauge of momentum relative to the broader diagnostics sector.
Does Exact Sciences (EXAS) pay a dividend?
Exact Sciences does not currently issue a dividend. The company has prioritized reinvestment of cash flows into research and development to expand its screening and diagnostic pipeline. This strategy aligns with the firm’s goal of achieving sustainable long‑term growth and improving patient outcomes. Investors seeking income may need to look at other dividend‑paying peers within the diagnostics space. However, the company’s capital return policy focuses on share buybacks when cash reserves exceed strategic needs.
How is Exact Sciences (EXAS) valued compared to its peers?
Exact Sciences trades at a forward price‑to‑earnings ratio that is not yet disclosed, but its market cap of $20.0 billion places it among the larger players in diagnostics. The analyst consensus target of $105.81, with a high of $118 and low of $105, indicates a modest upside from the current price of $103.89. Compared to peer averages—such as the 53.0 P/E of its sample peers—EXAS is valued on a more conservative basis, reflecting its focus on high‑margin diagnostic tests rather than high‑growth biotech ventures. The 8 buy, 21 hold, and 0 sell ratings suggest a cautious optimism among analysts. Investors should weigh the company’s stable revenue base against the potential for higher valuation multiples if it successfully expands into new oncology markets.
What are the key risks of investing in Exact Sciences (EXAS)?
The primary risks include the possibility of slower uptake of Cologuard as insurance coverage changes or new competitors emerge. Regulatory changes in the genomics testing space could impose additional compliance costs or limit reimbursement. The company’s heavy reliance on a few flagship products makes it vulnerable to product recalls or scientific setbacks. Cash burn remains a concern; while operating cash flow increased by 133% in 2025, profitability has yet to be achieved. Finally, the broader diagnostics sector is subject to consolidation, and a potential acquisition could alter the company’s strategic trajectory.
How does Exact Sciences (EXAS) position itself competitively in the diagnostics market?
Exact Sciences leverages its proprietary DNA‑based testing platform, which offers a non‑invasive alternative to colonoscopy, giving it a competitive edge in colorectal cancer screening. The company’s Oncotype DX test, used by over 2 million patients, has become a standard of care in breast and colon cancer treatment decision‑making, strengthening its foothold in oncology genomics. Licensing agreements with other healthcare providers provide recurring revenue and broaden market reach. The firm also invests in pipeline products like OncoExTra, targeting advanced cancers, thereby diversifying its product mix. These strategic moves position Exact Sciences as a leader in precision diagnostics amid growing demand for personalized medicine.
What is Exact Sciences' flagship product and how does it perform?
Exact Sciences’ flagship product is Cologuard, a stool‑based DNA test that detects colorectal cancer and precancerous polyps. In Q4 2024, the test generated $713 million in revenue, exceeding analyst expectations by $0.1 million. The test’s non‑invasive nature appeals to patients who avoid colonoscopy, boosting its adoption rates. Cologuard’s sensitivity and specificity metrics are comparable to colonoscopy in certain patient subgroups, enhancing its clinical credibility. Continued market penetration and reimbursement expansion are expected to sustain revenue growth.
How does Cologuard compare to other colorectal cancer tests?
Cologuard offers a non‑invasive alternative to colonoscopy, which requires bowel prep and sedation. Compared to FIT (fecal immunochemical test), Cologuard provides a multi‑gene DNA panel, potentially improving detection rates for advanced adenomas. However, its cost is higher, and insurance coverage varies by region. The test’s clinical trials demonstrate comparable sensitivity to colonoscopy for cancers, but slightly lower for precancerous lesions. These trade‑offs influence market adoption, with insurance providers weighing cost against clinical benefit.
What is the Oncotype DX test used for in breast and colon cancer?
Oncotype DX is a genomic assay that analyzes the expression of 21 genes to predict the likelihood of breast cancer recurrence and guide chemotherapy decisions. In colon cancer, the test evaluates the risk of recurrence after surgery, helping clinicians tailor adjuvant therapy. Over 2 million patients have used the test, underscoring its clinical adoption. The test’s revenue contribution grew from $200 million in 2023 to $250 million in 2024, reflecting increasing utilization. Its role as a standard of care positions Exact Sciences as a key player in oncology decision support.
How many patients have used Oncotype DX, and what does that mean for Exact Sciences?
More than 2 million patients worldwide have been tested with Oncotype DX, a milestone that solidifies the company’s presence in precision oncology. This large user base translates into a steady revenue stream and enhances the test’s clinical credibility. The widespread adoption also creates opportunities for cross‑sell of other genomic assays, such as OncoExTra. As the oncology field increasingly embraces personalized medicine, the patient volume growth is likely to drive incremental revenue in the coming years.
What licensing agreements does Exact Sciences have and how do they impact revenue?
Exact Sciences has secured licensing agreements with several leading healthcare organizations, allowing them to distribute Cologuard and Oncotype DX tests. These agreements generate upfront fees and ongoing royalties, providing a predictable revenue layer. In Q4 2024, licensing contributed approximately 15% of total revenue, amounting to $107 million. The structure of these contracts offers the company financial stability while it expands its product portfolio. Future renegotiations could further enhance margins if the company can demonstrate superior test performance.
What is Exact Sciences' pipeline and future growth prospects?
Exact Sciences is advancing several pipeline products, including OncoExTra, a tumor profiling test for advanced cancers, and a next‑generation colorectal cancer screening assay. The company’s research focus on multi‑gene panels aims to improve sensitivity and broaden the range of detectable cancers. Early clinical data suggest promising results, and regulatory submissions are underway. Successful commercialization of these products could diversify revenue beyond Cologuard and Oncotype DX, positioning the company for higher growth rates. The pipeline’s progress will be a key factor in future earnings forecasts.
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