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KHC·The Kraft Heinz Company

$24.73
+0.13 (+0.53%)
After Hours
High
$24.96
Open
$23.94
Market Cap
29.17B
52W High
$28.09
Low
$23.75
P. Close
$24.73
P/E
-
52W Low
$21.03
Fwd P/E
11.76
DailyIQ Est.
$22.59
Inst. Ownership
55.5%
Short Interest
8.33%
Days to Cover
6.8
Technical Score (1D)
5
SELL
News Sentiment
39
BEARISH
Kraft Heinz’s most recent update shows the company is still grappling with a 60 % loss of North American market share for its Oscar Mayer brand, a decline driven by a packaging resealability defect that forced retailers to pull the product. The CEO announced a multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar overhaul that includes new packaging and a potential reformulation to reduce processed content, with early shipments in August already showing encouraging distribution recovery. This brand‑revitalization effort is part of a broader turnaround strategy that also explains why the firm has redirected $700 million of the capital that would have funded a planned split into two entities, effectively pausing the breakup and focusing on brand investment instead. The pause on the breakup, coupled with a nearly $3 billion debt reduction, signals a strategic reset under the new CEO but also removes a potential upside catalyst that had been priced into the stock. Analysts now project a 29.5 % decline in quarterly EPS to $0.43 and a 3.3 % drop in revenue to $6.03 billion, underscoring persistent margin pressure and a challenging operating environment. The company’s year‑to‑year guidance also shows a 20.8 % earnings decline, further dampening investor sentiment. In the next 1–10 trading days, traders should watch for the upcoming earnings release to confirm these downward revisions and any management commentary on cost controls or product strategy. Additionally, the rollout of the new Oscar Mayer packaging and any early sales data from the August shipments will be key to assessing whether the brand revitalization can reverse the steep recovery path. Finally, the NYSE listing shift, while cosmetic, may influence short‑term liquidity and should be monitored for any subsequent corporate actions that could alter the company’s capital structure.
Earnings Summary
The Kraft Heinz Company is a global food and beverage giant that manufactures and distributes a broad portfolio of consumer staples, including condiments, dairy, meals, and beverages, with well‑known brands such as Kraft, Heinz, and Oscar Mayer. Operating in the consumer defensive sector, Kraft Heinz relies on a multi‑channel distribution strategy that spans retail, foodservice, and e‑commerce to reach a wide customer base. In the most recent quarter, Q4 2025, the company reported EPS of $0.67 versus an estimate of $0.56, and revenue of $6.35 billion against an estimate of $5.92 billion, marking a 6.8% revenue increase and a 19% EPS beat. The prior quarter, Q3 2025, saw EPS of $0.61 versus an estimate of $0.58 and revenue of $6.24 billion, a 1.6% revenue rise and a modest EPS beat. Across the last four quarters, Kraft Heinz has consistently outperformed earnings estimates, with EPS beats in each quarter and revenue growth ranging from 1.6% to 6.8%, indicating a steady acceleration in profitability despite modest top‑line gains. Historically, the company has posted year‑over‑year revenue growth of roughly 3–4% in recent years, while EPS has trended upward, often beating analyst expectations; however, margin pressure has occasionally tempered the upside, as noted in the Q2 2025 earnings where operating income fell 16–18%. Recent news highlights the company’s decision to halt its planned split and redirect $700 million toward a brand‑reinvestment program under new CEO Steve Cahillane, alongside a nearly $3 billion debt reduction. This strategic reset is expected to influence short‑term earnings through product innovation and marketing spend, with early consumption gains reported in the first half of the year. Investors should watch for the impact of the brand‑investment rollout on sales volume and margin improvement in the next earnings cycle, as well as any updates to guidance that may reflect the effectiveness of the new initiatives. Key watch points include the timing and scale of new packaging rollouts, the pace of supply‑chain efficiencies, and any revisions to the company’s full‑year outlook that could signal a shift in its defensive volume strategy.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.39$0.47$0.56$0.64$0.73Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.43 - -
Q2'26$0.53$0.56+4.8%
Q1'26$0.51$0.58+14.2%
Q4'25$0.56$0.67+20.0%
Q3'25$0.58$0.61+5.8%
Q2'25$0.64$0.69+8.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$5.9B$6.0B$6.1B$6.3B$6.4BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$6.1B - -
Q2'26$6.2B$6.3B+1.2%
Q1'26$5.9B$6.0B+1.7%
Q4'25$5.9B$6.4B+7.3%
Q3'25 - $6.2B -
Q2'25 - $6.4B -

Market Data

KHC Stock Snapshot

SELL5/100
$24.65$0.08 (0.3%)
Market cap
29.17B
Day range
$23.75 – $24.96
News sentiment
39/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$25.09 (+1.8%)
Consensus
Hold · 29 analysts
52-week range+17.2% off low · -12.2% from high
$21.03$28.09
Price $24.65 DailyIQ Est. $22.59

The Kraft Heinz Company is trading in the middle of its 52-week range with momentum still pointing lower. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Consumer Defensive tend to move together on rotation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into KHC?

CHEAP

At today's price, The Kraft Heinz Company needs to grow free cash flow about -14.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.24% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 6.7% a year, so the market is asking for 21.3 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis KHC looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-14.6%
Historical FCF CAGR
6.7%
Growth gap
-21.3 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.24%
Beta
0.50

Behaviour On Record

What KHC's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
26.4% 72nd pct
Below its peak
-74.7%
vs 200-day average
+1.6%
Up days (1y)
51%

The Kraft Heinz Company is currently running 26.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against KHC's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 72nd percentile a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 20.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

KHC is trading -74.7% below its running peak. Across 10 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -26.3%, and the deepest was -48.3% in 2019. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +1.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 66th percentile a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year KHC closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 12 years of records, KHC finished the month higher 5 of 12 times, with a median return of -0.6% and an average of -2.1%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +2.8% on average, its weakest August at -4.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: KHC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 29 of 2,815 sessions (1.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.8% and -5.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, KHC moved an average of 2.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.4% and a largest of -3.7%.

All figures computed from 2,816 daily closes between 2015-07-06 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against KHC's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of KHC's sector?

The Kraft Heinz Company sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 5th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#5 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for KHC?

CallsPuts

For The Kraft Heinz Company's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.52), with at-the-money implied volatility around 56.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $23.40–$26.24.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.52
ATM implied volatility
56.4%
Total open interest
111,062
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±5.7% ($23.40–$26.24)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on KHC?

Evercore ISI Group most recently reiterated its rating on The Kraft Heinz Company to In-Line on Sep 14, 2026 with a price target of $23 (from $24). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Evercore ISI GroupIn-Line
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 14, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$24 → $23
Aug 7, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$25 → $26
Aug 6, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$20 → $22
Aug 6, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$25 → $27
Aug 6, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$24 → $25
Aug 6, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$23 → $24
Jul 23, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$22 → $23
Jul 16, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$24 → $25
Jul 15, 2026JP MorganMaintainedUnderweight$21 → $22
Jul 8, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$23 → $25
Jun 25, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$23 → $24
Jun 3, 2026BernsteinDowngradeMarket Perform → Underperform$25 → $21

KHC Competitive Positioning

The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is tracked alongside these names in Packaged Foods on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.