KMX·CarMax, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

41.3% 76th pct

Below its peak

-67.1%

vs 200-day average

+4.6%

Up days (1y)

52%

CarMax, Inc. is currently running 41.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against KMX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 76th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 31.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

KMX is trading -67.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -26.0%, and the deepest was -65.2% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +4.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 54th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year KMX closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, KMX finished the month higher 4 of 14 times, with a median return of -6.1% and an average of -2.3%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +4.5% on average, its weakest September at -8.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: KMX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 137 of 3,269 sessions (4.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.9% and -8.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, KMX moved an average of 5.7% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 4 times, with a median move of -2.3% and a largest of +12.0%.

All figures computed from 3,270 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against KMX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.