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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updatedjust now

KMX·CarMax, Inc.

$60.05
-1.64 (-2.66%)
High
$61.52
Open
$61.30
Market Cap
8.77B
52W High
$65.28
Low
$59.89
P. Close
$60.05
P/E
39.39
52W Low
$30.25
Fwd P/E
20.12
DailyIQ Est.
$54.78
Inst. Ownership
53.8%
Short Interest
7.68%
Days to Cover
6.4
Technical Score (1D)
55
BUY
News Sentiment
57
BULLISH
Representative Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. disclosed a purchase of between $1,001 and $15,000 of CarMax (KMX) stock on August 19, reported in a filing on September 10. The trade was executed through a trust account linked to Bank of America, indicating a modest, but potentially signal‑bearing, endorsement of the company’s prospects. Because the dollar amount is small relative to KMX’s market cap, the transaction is unlikely to move the stock materially, but it may be interpreted by investors as a subtle vote of confidence. Over the next 1–10 trading days, traders should watch for any subsequent institutional activity that could confirm or contradict this modest signal. A follow‑up filing from another insider or a larger block trade would strengthen the narrative of positive sentiment. Conversely, if KMX releases weaker-than‑expected earnings or faces regulatory scrutiny, the perceived endorsement may be discounted. Monitoring the volume and price action around the announcement of any new corporate developments will help gauge whether the market takes the trade seriously. Finally, keep an eye on broader automotive retail sentiment, as any shift in consumer demand or financing rates could amplify or dampen the impact of this small insider purchase.
Earnings Summary
CarMax operates as a leading used vehicle retailer in the United States, offering a comprehensive car‑buying experience through its Sales Operations and Auto Finance segments. The company serves a broad customer base with a mix of conventional, electric, and hybrid vehicles, and it also provides reconditioning, extended protection plans, and repair services, positioning it firmly within the consumer cyclical auto dealership sector. In the most recent quarter (Q1 2027), CarMax reported earnings per share of $1.31 versus the $0.94 consensus, a 46.95% average surprise over the last two periods, and revenue of $8.01 billion against an estimate of $7.50 billion, indicating a solid earnings beat and revenue growth. Compared to Q4 2026, EPS rose from $0.34 to $1.31 and revenue increased from $5.95 billion to $8.01 billion, reflecting a significant acceleration in both profitability and top line. Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four periods, while revenue growth has remained positive, albeit with a slight deceleration from the $7.55 billion in Q3 2026 to $8.01 billion in Q1 2027. Historically, CarMax has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory that has hovered around 10–15% in recent years, with EPS growth outpacing revenue in several quarters, suggesting that margin expansion has been a key driver. The company’s recent news highlights a strong earnings beat, an analyst upgrade to a fair‑value estimate of $54.85, and a leadership transition with EVP Diane Cafritz slated to depart by the end of 2026, all of which reinforce the narrative of an early‑stage turnaround and potential upside. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to confirm the turnaround narrative, monitor inventory turnover and gross margin trends, and keep an eye on any updates regarding the leadership transition and governance issues that could influence the stock’s valuation.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.02$0.38$0.75$1.11$1.48Q3'25Q4'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$0.72 - -
Q1'27$0.70$1.31+87.1%
Q4'26$0.21$0.34+60.6%
Q3'26$0.19$0.43+131.6%
Q4'25$0.32$0.43+36.1%
Q3'25$1.04$0.64-38.6%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$5.3B$6.1B$6.8B$7.6B$8.4BQ3'25Q4'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$7.0B - -
Q1'27$7.5B$8.0B+6.9%
Q4'26$5.7B$5.9B+3.8%
Q3'26$5.6B$5.8B+2.7%
Q4'25 - $5.8B -
Q3'25 - $6.6B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

KMX Stock Snapshot

HOLD55/100
$60.05−$1.64 (2.7%)
Market cap
8.77B
P/E ratio
39.4
Day range
$59.89 – $61.52
News sentiment
57/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$54.85 (-8.7%)
Consensus
Hold · 26 analysts
52-week range+98.5% off low · -8.0% from high
$30.25$65.28
Price $60.05 DailyIQ Est. $54.78

KMX sits in the upper part of its 52-week range with the technical picture unresolved. Expect wider swings than the Consumer Cyclical average, simply as a function of float and coverage.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into KMX?

CHEAP

At today's price, CarMax, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -2.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.36% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 17.5% a year, so the market is asking for 20.2 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis KMX looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-2.7%
Historical FCF CAGR
17.5%
Growth gap
-20.2 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.36%
Beta
1.02

Behaviour On Record

What KMX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
28.5% 41st pct
Below its peak
-60.8%
vs 200-day average
+29.0%
Up days (1y)
52%

CarMax, Inc. is currently running 28.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against KMX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 41st percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 30.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

KMX is trading -60.8% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -26.0%, and the deepest was -65.2% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +29.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 97th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year KMX closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, KMX finished the month higher 4 of 14 times, with a median return of -6.2% and an average of -7.1%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +4.5% on average, its weakest September at -7.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: KMX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 136 of 3,269 sessions (4.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.9% and -8.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, KMX moved an average of 5.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.0% and a largest of +12.0%.

All figures computed from 3,270 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against KMX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of KMX's sector?

CarMax, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 9th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#9 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
20

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for KMX?

CallsPuts

For CarMax, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.28), with at-the-money implied volatility around 50.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±4.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $57.72–$62.72.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.28
ATM implied volatility
50.8%
Total open interest
12,566
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±4.2% ($57.72–$62.72)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on KMX?

JP Morgan most recently upgraded CarMax, Inc. to Neutral on Jul 29, 2026 with a price target of $60 (from $38). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 2 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan — Neutral
90-day upgrades
2
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+2
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jul 29, 2026JP MorganUpgradeUnderweight → Neutral$38 → $60
Jul 21, 2026BarclaysUpgradeUnderweight → Equal-Weight$37 → $61
Jun 23, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$35 → $44
Jun 23, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$42 → $57
Jun 22, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$31 → $37
Jun 18, 2026JP MorganMaintainedUnderweight$37 → $38
Jun 18, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedHold$47 → $50
Jun 18, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$45 → $58
Jun 18, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$41 → $45
Jun 18, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$48 → $55
Jun 18, 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainedEqual-Weight$43 → $66
Jun 18, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$38 → $43

Held by These ETFs

KMX is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.