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MCD·McDonald's Corporation

$252.84
-4.65 (-1.81%)
After Hours
High
$258.30
Open
$257.78
Market Cap
181.89B
52W High
$341.75
Low
$252.70
P. Close
$252.84
P/E
20.70
52W Low
$252.15
Fwd P/E
18.42
DailyIQ Est.
$324.32
Inst. Ownership
38.8%
Short Interest
1.71%
Days to Cover
2.9
Technical Score (1D)
18
SELL
News Sentiment
46
MIXED
McDonald’s has just announced a $20 billion expansion of its global delivery platform, with 90 % of restaurants now participating and a target to route 30 % of that revenue through its own app by 2027. This shift toward a unified digital ordering ecosystem is intended to strengthen long‑term cash flow and mitigate pressure from lower‑income traffic and input cost volatility, setting the stage for a potential earnings lift in the next 1–10 trading days. Earlier this week, the company’s earnings guidance was reaffirmed, with analysts projecting a 5.3 % rise in quarterly EPS to $3.39 and a 2.9 % increase in revenue to $7.28 billion, while full‑year guidance remained unchanged at $12.88 EPS and $28.17 billion revenue; the guidance suggests steady performance but leaves room for the delivery push to influence the next quarter’s results. In a separate move to counter rising diesel costs, McDonald’s launched an $8 Big Mac meal promotion, though the CEO noted weak Q2 execution and a delayed traffic recovery that could blunt the price‑push’s impact on margins. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have both trimmed their price targets—down to $300 and $308 respectively—while maintaining buy and equal‑weight ratings, reflecting a modest downside view amid rising costs and competitive pressure. The convergence of a digital strategy upgrade, steady earnings guidance, and a cautious price‑target outlook creates a mixed but potentially positive environment for the next few trading days. Watch for the earnings release to see whether the delivery expansion translates into higher revenue and whether the Big Mac promotion yields any short‑term traffic lift. Also monitor any updates on cost‑control initiatives, as they will be key to sustaining margins in the face of fuel price pressures.
Earnings Summary
McDonald’s Corporation operates a global quick‑service restaurant network, primarily through franchising, offering a menu of burgers, fries, chicken sandwiches, breakfast items and desserts, positioning it as a leading player in the consumer‑cyclical restaurant sector. The company’s franchise model provides stable revenue streams while allowing for rapid expansion and menu innovation. In the most recent two quarters, Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, McDonald’s reported EPS of $3.12 and $2.83 respectively, both slightly above analyst expectations of $2.87 and $3.42, indicating a modest beat pattern in the last four quarters. Revenue, however, showed a mixed trend: Q4 2025 revenue rose to $7.009 billion from $6.388 billion in Q4 2024, a 9.5% increase, while Q1 2026 revenue dipped to $6.517 billion from $6.843 billion in Q1 2025, a 4.8% decline. This divergence suggests that while earnings remained resilient, top‑line growth has slowed, likely reflecting competitive pricing and macro headwinds. Historically, McDonald’s has maintained a steady YoY revenue growth trajectory, with revenue expanding 8–10% annually over the past five years, yet EPS has occasionally lagged due to rising input costs; the company has consistently beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, underscoring disciplined cost management. Recent news highlights a $20 billion expansion of its global delivery platform, with 90% of restaurants now participating and a target to route 30% of revenue through its own app by 2027, which could drive future revenue lift; meanwhile, diesel price spikes and freight‑cost pressures have prompted a Big Mac promotion and raised concerns about margin compression. Investors should watch for the Q4 dividend announcement and any updates to earnings guidance, as well as the impact of the delivery expansion on revenue mix and the company’s ability to manage fuel‑related cost volatility in the next quarter.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.74$2.93$3.12$3.32$3.51Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.40 - -
Q2'26$3.35$3.38+0.8%
Q1'26$3.42$2.83-17.2%
Q4'25$2.87$3.12+8.9%
Q3'25$3.33$3.22-3.4%
Q2'25$3.15$3.19+1.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$6.3B$6.6B$6.9B$7.2B$7.5BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$7.4B - -
Q2'26$7.2B$7.1B-1.4%
Q1'26$6.5B$6.5B-0.2%
Q4'25$6.4B$7.0B+9.5%
Q3'25 - $7.1B -
Q2'25 - $6.8B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MCD Stock Snapshot

SELL18/100
$253.01+$0.17 (0.1%)
Market cap
181.89B
P/E ratio
20.7
Day range
$252.70 – $258.30
News sentiment
46/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$314.81 (+24.4%)
Consensus
Buy · 42 analysts
52-week range+0.3% off low · -26.0% from high
$252.15$341.75
Price $253.01 DailyIQ Est. $324.32

McDonald's Corporation is trading near its 52-week low with momentum still pointing lower. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MCD?

RICH

At today's price, McDonald's Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 7.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.65% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 4.0% a year, so the market is asking for 3.7 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis MCD looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
7.8%
Historical FCF CAGR
4.0%
Growth gap
+3.7 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
6.65%
Beta
0.48

Behaviour On Record

What MCD's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
17.7% 66th pct
Below its peak
-25.4%
vs 200-day average
-13.6%
Up days (1y)
47%

McDonald's Corporation is currently running 17.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MCD's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 66th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 15.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MCD is trading -25.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -15.4%, and the deepest was -36.0% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -13.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 1st percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MCD closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, MCD finished the month higher 6 of 14 times, with a median return of -0.5% and an average of -0.4%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +3.4% on average, its weakest June at -0.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MCD has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 22 of 3,268 sessions (0.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.0% and -12.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MCD moved an average of 2.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +2.0% and a largest of +2.8%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MCD's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MCD's sector?

McDonald's Corporation sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 9th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#9 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
20

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MCD?

CallsPuts

For McDonald's Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.67), with at-the-money implied volatility around 31.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.4% move by that expiry — a range of about $261.58–$280.02.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.67
ATM implied volatility
31.9%
Total open interest
60,826
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±3.4% ($261.58–$280.02)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MCD?

Deutsche Bank most recently reiterated its rating on McDonald's Corporation to Buy on Sep 14, 2026 with a price target of $300 (from $325). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Deutsche Bank — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 14, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedBuy$325 → $300
Sep 14, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$319 → $308
Sep 11, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$300 → $282
Aug 26, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$320 → $310
Aug 6, 2026GuggenheimMaintainedNeutral$320 → $290
Aug 5, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$335 → $345
Aug 5, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$305 → $295
Aug 5, 2026KeybancMaintainedOverweight$315 → $305
Aug 5, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$350
Jul 31, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$300 → $290
Jul 27, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$365 → $340
Jul 24, 2026BTIGMaintainedBuy$370 → $350

MCD Competitive Positioning

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is tracked alongside these names in Restaurants on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

MCD is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.