DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

MELI·MercadoLibre, Inc.

$1785.66
-39.54 (-2.17%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$1791.35+5.69 (+0.32%)
High
$1,831.41
Open
$1,825.19
Market Cap
92.07B
52W High
$2,548.50
Low
$1,785.00
P. Close
$1,785.66
P/E
49.42
52W Low
$1,495.00
Fwd P/E
31.66
DailyIQ Est.
$2373.74
Inst. Ownership
38.6%
Short Interest
1.61%
Days to Cover
2.0
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
48
MIXED
MercadoLibre priced a $1 billion senior unsecured note at a 5.85 % coupon, maturing in 2036, providing a long‑term, low‑cost financing layer that can be deployed across its logistics, payments and credit businesses without distorting its earnings outlook. The proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes, giving the company flexibility to accelerate growth initiatives while maintaining a stable debt profile that aligns with its multi‑year investment horizon. In the same period, Mercado Pago continued to issue 2.6 million new credit cards in Brazil, a 62 % year‑over‑year increase, underscoring the fintech arm’s robust underwriting and its role as a core profit engine that is expected to drive roughly $18.1 billion in 2026 fintech revenue. The credit‑card expansion signals that the company can sustain higher leverage in its financial services segment while monitoring portfolio health, which may support higher margin growth in the near term. Analyst consensus remains bullish, with 13 of 18 brokerage firms issuing strong‑buy ratings and an average brokerage recommendation of 1.47, a sentiment that could fuel short‑term trading momentum as investors digest the company’s continued expansion. Market participants will likely focus on the upcoming Q4 earnings release, where analysts expect $9.42 per share and $10.64 bn in revenue, a 44 % jump, to confirm whether the growth trajectory holds and whether the debt issuance has any impact on cash‑flow generation. Meanwhile, the recent issuance of 2036 dollar notes at a BBB‑/Baa3 rating and a 160 bps spread highlights a slight downgrade in credit quality, raising questions about the sustainability of rapid fintech expansion and the potential need for future refinancing. Traders should watch for any adjustments to the debt structure or credit rating in the next few weeks, as well as any guidance revisions that could alter the company’s projected free‑cash‑flow profile.
Earnings Summary
MercadoLibre is a leading e‑commerce and fintech company in Latin America, operating its marketplace, payments platform Mercado Pago, logistics arm Mercado Envios, and advertising services, positioning it as a comprehensive digital commerce ecosystem within the consumer cyclical sector. In Q4 2024 the company posted EPS of $12.61 versus an estimate of $7.56, while revenue reached $6.06 billion, a strong beat that underscored its robust growth engine. The following year, Q4 2025 EPS fell slightly to $11.03 against an estimate of $11.70, yet revenue still topped expectations at $8.76 billion versus $8.63 billion forecast, indicating a modest deceleration in earnings momentum but continued revenue expansion. Q2 2026 EPS of $9.19 beat the $8.83 estimate, and revenue of $10.17 billion outpaced the $9.86 billion estimate, showing a rebound in profitability and a continued upward revenue trend. Historically, the company has delivered double‑digit YoY revenue growth for several quarters, with EPS occasionally trailing estimates during periods of aggressive investment; however, the recent pattern shows a return to earnings beats in two of the last three quarters, suggesting a tightening of margins. Recent news highlights a 33.5% sell‑off by Connective Capital Management in Q2, which may introduce short‑term liquidity pressure, but other institutional inflows keep sentiment mixed; additionally, Mercado Pago’s Q2 2026 results revealed a 30% YoY jump in monthly active users and a 68% rise in assets under management, signaling strengthening fintech traction that could lift fee‑based revenue. Investors should watch for guidance on capital allocation toward payment infrastructure and credit expansion, as well as any regulatory shifts in Brazil and Mexico that could impact fintech operations, while monitoring the company’s logistics network expansion for potential margin implications.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$6.80$8.44$10.08$11.73$13.37Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$9.67 - -
Q2'26$8.83$9.19+4.1%
Q4'25$11.70$11.03-5.7%
Q4'24$7.56$12.61+66.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$5.4B$6.9B$8.4B$9.9B$11.5BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$10.7B - -
Q2'26$9.9B$10.2B+3.1%
Q4'25$8.6B$8.8B+1.4%
Q4'24 - $6.1B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MELI Stock Snapshot

SELL32/100
$1791.35+$5.69 (0.3%)
Market cap
92.07B
P/E ratio
49.4
Day range
$1785.00 – $1831.41
News sentiment
48/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$2264.88 (+26.4%)
Consensus
Buy · 32 analysts
52-week range+19.8% off low · -29.7% from high
$1495.00$2548.50
Price $1791.35 DailyIQ Est. $2373.74

The chart on MELI has not stabilised: price is in the lower half of its 52-week range and the trend is still down. In Consumer Cyclical, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MELI?

CHEAP

At today's price, MercadoLibre, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -10.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.06% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 36.5% a year, so the market is asking for 47.0 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis MELI looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-10.6%
Historical FCF CAGR
36.5%
Growth gap
-47.0 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
9.06%
Beta
0.92

Behaviour On Record

What MELI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
25.3% 15th pct
Below its peak
-31.7%
vs 200-day average
-3.5%
Up days (1y)
48%

MercadoLibre, Inc. is currently running 25.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MELI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 15th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 38.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MELI is trading -31.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.5%, and the deepest was -53.8% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -3.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 24th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MELI closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, MELI finished the month higher 3 of 13 times, with a median return of -5.1% and an average of -4.7%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +8.8% on average, its weakest September at -4.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MELI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 242 of 3,268 sessions (7.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.5% and -9.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MELI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MELI's sector?

MercadoLibre, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Retail industry group, MELI ranks 8th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#10 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
10
Industry rank
#8 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MELI?

CallsPuts

For MercadoLibre, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.80), with at-the-money implied volatility around 36.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $1733.95–$1924.07.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.80
ATM implied volatility
36.4%
Total open interest
4,175
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±5.2% ($1733.95–$1924.07)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MELI?

BTIG most recently reiterated its rating on MercadoLibre, Inc. to Buy on Sep 3, 2026 with a price target of $2150. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BTIG — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 3, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
Aug 11, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$1900 → $2150
Aug 6, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$2150 → $2300
Aug 6, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
Jul 15, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$1950 → $2000
Jun 2, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
May 13, 2026CitigroupDowngradeBuy → Neutral$2200 → $1950
May 13, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$2100 → $1900
May 13, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$2050 → $1750
May 11, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$2600 → $2450
May 11, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$2500 → $2300
May 8, 2026BenchmarkMaintainedBuy$2780 → $2380

MELI Competitive Positioning

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is tracked alongside these names in Internet Retail on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

MELI is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.