MELI|Analyst Targets
MELI|Company Info
MELI|Insider Trading
MELI|Fundamentals
MELI|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $11.47 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $9.55 | $8.83 | -7.5% |
| Q2'26 | $8.89 | $9.19 | +3.4% |
| Q4'25 | $11.70 | $11.03 | -5.7% |
| Q4'24 | $7.56 | $12.61 | +66.8% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $12.1B | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $10.9B | $10.8B | -1.2% |
| Q2'26 | $9.9B | $10.2B | +3.1% |
| Q4'25 | $8.6B | $8.8B | +1.4% |
| Q4'24 | - | $6.1B | - |
MELI|Monthly Returns
Market Data
MELI Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 77.58B
- P/E ratio
- 41.0
- Day range
- $1502.10 – $1558.01
- News sentiment
- 49/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $2271.93 (+47.9%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 32 analysts
The chart on MELI has not stabilised: price is near its 52-week low and the trend is still down. In Consumer Cyclical, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into MELI?
At today's price, MercadoLibre, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -10.7% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 8.69% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 28.1% a year, so the market is asking for 38.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis MELI looks priced below what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- -10.7%
- Growth trend
- 28.1%
- Growth gap
- -38.8 pts
- Verdict
- CHEAP
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 8.69%
- Beta
- 1.01
Behaviour On Record
What MELI's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 45.1% 67th pct
- Below its peak
- -37.7%
- vs 200-day average
- -9.8%
- Up days (1y)
- 48%
MercadoLibre, Inc. is currently running 45.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MELI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 67th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 38.1%.
MELI is trading -37.7% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -30.0%, and the deepest was -53.8% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.
Price sits -9.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 15th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MELI closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.
On November specifically: over 13 years of records, MELI finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.1% and an average of +4.9%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +8.8% on average, its weakest September at -4.9%.
Overnight risk is measurable too: MELI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 244 of 3,268 sessions (7.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.5% and -9.1%.
Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MELI moved an average of 3.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.2% and a largest of -6.3%.
All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MELI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of MELI's sector?
MercadoLibre, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 5th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Retail industry group, MELI ranks 3rd of 15 tracked industries, leading.
- Sector rank
- #5 of 12
- Sector state
- Leading
- Sector rotation score
- 91
- Industry rank
- #3 of 15
Analyst Consensus Estimates
What do analysts expect MELI to earn?
Analysts expect MercadoLibre, Inc. to earn $38.17 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $77.68 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.
Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MELI?
Cantor Fitzgerald most recently reiterated its rating on MercadoLibre, Inc. to Overweight on Nov 5, 2026 with a price target of $2000 (from $2200). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.
- Latest action
- Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight
- 90-day upgrades
- 1
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- +1
Earnings Release, Scored
What did MercadoLibre, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?
Most important lines
- 1
Engagement, Scale and Cost to Serve The habits we described last quarter continued to build in Q3'26, and engagement deepened again.
New this quarter - 2
In Fintech, our users continue to pay and transact more with Mercado Pago, with TPV per user up 34% YoY.
New this quarter - 3
In Fintech, our platform is digital from the ground up, so our users can do much more with us for the same cost: the cost to serve an active user is around $1 per month, a figure that has been broadly flat since Q1'25 while transactions, products and revenue per user have all grown strongly.
New this quarter
Peers & ETF holders
MELI peers & ETF holders
Internet RetailMarket cap · today
News & sentiment
What is the news saying about MELI?
MELI fell 18.7% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 22 and 94 from Oct 6 to Oct 23, then dropped to 38 on Oct 26.
- Oct 26 -8.3%same day: Can MercadoLibre Keep Expanding Marketplace Leadership?
- Nov 4 +5.1%same day: MercadoLibre’s Bulls Are Counting on Profit Growth. Here’s What We Learn Tonight
- Nov 5 -12.1%same day: MercadoLibre Q3 Earnings Call Highlights
Technical analysis
How strong is MELI's momentum right now?
On the daily chart MELI ranks at the 19th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.
Institutional ownership
Are big funds buying or selling MELI?
93 of the 219 tracked managers added to MELI in their latest 13F and 121 trimmed. Together they own 56.5% of the company, worth $48.4B. Capital Research Global Investors and Baillie Gifford alone hold 12.2%.
- $5.3B positionAdded 15.5% last quarter
- 2Baillie Gifford & Co6.02%$5.2B positionTrimmed 6.0% last quarter
- $3.2B positionAdded 7.8% last quarter
- 4Capital World Investors3.51%$3.0B positionTrimmed 19.2% last quarter
- 5Morgan Stanley2.96%$2.5B positionTrimmed 5.6% last quarter
- 6Invesco Ltd.2.91%$2.5B positionAdded 38.1% last quarter
- $2.4B positionAdded 79.0% last quarter
- 8BlackRock, Inc.2.62%$2.2B positionTrimmed 3.2% last quarter
- $1.1B positionTrimmed 5.6% last quarter
- $906.1M positionAdded 7.9% last quarter
Congressional trading
Is Congress trading MELI?
6 members of Congress disclosed 16 MELI trades between Jan 27, 2025 and Jun 10, 2026: 11 buys and 5 sells, about $201.5K in estimated value.
What stands out
Click one to highlight its trades in the chartDiscover more
How has MELI done against its peers?
Over the six months to Nov 6, MELI returned −17.8%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, all did better, led by WSM at +36.2%.
- 1WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.up 36.2%+54.1 pts
- 2ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.up 20.5%+38.3 pts
- 3EBAYeBay Inc.up 12.9%+30.8 pts
- 4HDThe Home Depot, Inc.up 6.3%+24.1 pts
- 5XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETFup 6.1%+24.0 pts
- 6DHID.R. Horton, Inc.up 2.1%+19.9 pts
- 7ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.up 0.9%+18.8 pts
- 8XLYConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Funddown 2.0%+15.8 pts
- 16MELIThis stockdown 17.8%