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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updatedjust now

MELI·MercadoLibre, Inc.

$1836.37
-63.87 (-3.36%)
High
$1,891.83
Open
$1,876.14
Market Cap
95.80B
52W High
$2,548.50
Low
$1,831.55
P. Close
$1,836.37
P/E
51.42
52W Low
$1,495.00
Fwd P/E
33.44
DailyIQ Est.
$2373.74
Inst. Ownership
38.2%
Short Interest
1.59%
Days to Cover
2.0
Technical Score (1D)
41
SELL
News Sentiment
55
BULLISH
The most immediate catalyst is Mercado Pago’s continued expansion of its credit‑card portfolio, with 2.6 million new cards issued in Q2—a 62 % year‑over‑year jump—despite Brazil’s central bank warning about household debt. This growth signals that the fintech arm’s underwriting models remain robust and that the credit‑card business will likely continue to be a key revenue engine for the next few weeks. A week later, brokerage consensus hardened into a strong‑buy stance, with 13 of 18 analysts issuing that rating and an average recommendation of 1.47, which could feed short‑term momentum as the market digests the consensus. The company’s Q4 earnings guidance—$9.42 per share and $10.64 billion in revenue, up 13 % and 44 % YoY respectively—provides a near‑term benchmark against which traders will measure any surprise. Meanwhile, the announcement that MercadoLibre has reached a historic 5,000 % gain since its IPO underscores the long‑term narrative of a diversified Latin‑American ecosystem that blends e‑commerce, payments, logistics, credit, and asset management. In the debt arena, the firm’s $1 billion 2036 senior unsecured notes were priced at a spread matching its recent 7‑year issue, reflecting strong institutional demand and reinforcing liquidity for future growth initiatives. However, the issuance of $1.5 billion 2036 dollar notes at a BBB‑/Baa3 rating and a 160 bps spread has raised concerns about funding costs and fintech‑related asset‑quality risks, which could temper profitability in the near term. Traders should watch the impact of the new debt on cash‑flow metrics and any subsequent refinancing plans, as well as the company’s ability to maintain its credit‑card growth trajectory while managing the higher cost of capital.
Earnings Summary
MercadoLibre is a leading e‑commerce and fintech company in Latin America, operating its marketplace, payments platform Mercado Pago, logistics arm Mercado Envios, and advertising services, positioning it as a comprehensive digital commerce ecosystem within the consumer cyclical sector. In Q4 2024 the company posted EPS of $12.61 versus an estimate of $7.56, while revenue reached $6.06 billion, a strong beat that underscored its robust growth engine. The following year, Q4 2025 EPS fell slightly to $11.03 against an estimate of $11.70, yet revenue still topped expectations at $8.76 billion versus $8.63 billion forecast, indicating a modest deceleration in earnings momentum but continued revenue expansion. Q2 2026 EPS of $9.19 beat the $8.83 estimate, and revenue of $10.17 billion outpaced the $9.86 billion estimate, showing a rebound in profitability and a continued upward revenue trend. Historically, the company has delivered double‑digit YoY revenue growth for several quarters, with EPS occasionally trailing estimates during periods of aggressive investment; however, the recent pattern shows a return to earnings beats in two of the last three quarters, suggesting a tightening of margins. Recent news highlights a 33.5% sell‑off by Connective Capital Management in Q2, which may introduce short‑term liquidity pressure, but other institutional inflows keep sentiment mixed; additionally, Mercado Pago’s Q2 2026 results revealed a 30% YoY jump in monthly active users and a 68% rise in assets under management, signaling strengthening fintech traction that could lift fee‑based revenue. Investors should watch for guidance on capital allocation toward payment infrastructure and credit expansion, as well as any regulatory shifts in Brazil and Mexico that could impact fintech operations, while monitoring the company’s logistics network expansion for potential margin implications.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$6.80$8.44$10.08$11.73$13.37Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$9.67 - -
Q2'26$8.83$9.19+4.1%
Q4'25$11.70$11.03-5.7%
Q4'24$7.56$12.61+66.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$5.4B$6.9B$8.4B$9.9B$11.5BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$10.7B - -
Q2'26$9.9B$10.2B+3.1%
Q4'25$8.6B$8.8B+1.4%
Q4'24 - $6.1B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MELI Stock Snapshot

HOLD41/100
$1836.37−$63.87 (3.4%)
Market cap
95.80B
P/E ratio
51.4
Day range
$1831.55 – $1891.83
News sentiment
55/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$2264.88 (+23.3%)
Consensus
Buy · 32 analysts
52-week range+22.8% off low · -27.9% from high
$1495.00$2548.50
Price $1836.37 DailyIQ Est. $2373.74

This is a pause rather than a turn for MELI - the signals are mixed by construction. In Consumer Cyclical, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MELI?

CHEAP

At today's price, MercadoLibre, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -9.3% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.10% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 36.5% a year, so the market is asking for 45.7 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis MELI looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-9.3%
Historical FCF CAGR
36.5%
Growth gap
-45.7 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
9.10%
Beta
0.92

Behaviour On Record

What MELI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
34.2% 38th pct
Below its peak
-29.2%
vs 200-day average
-0.2%
Up days (1y)
49%

MercadoLibre, Inc. is currently running 34.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MELI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 38th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 38.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MELI is trading -29.2% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.5%, and the deepest was -53.8% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -0.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 29th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MELI closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, MELI finished the month higher 4 of 14 times, with a median return of -4.4% and an average of -3.5%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +8.8% on average, its weakest September at -3.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MELI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 242 of 3,268 sessions (7.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.5% and -9.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MELI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MELI's sector?

MercadoLibre, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 9th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Retail industry group, MELI ranks 8th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#9 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
20
Industry rank
#8 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MELI?

CallsPuts

For MercadoLibre, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.00), with at-the-money implied volatility around 44.2%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.8% move by that expiry — a range of about $1775.26–$1913.96.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
1.00
ATM implied volatility
44.2%
Total open interest
11,094
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±3.8% ($1775.26–$1913.96)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MELI?

BTIG most recently reiterated its rating on MercadoLibre, Inc. to Buy on Sep 3, 2026 with a price target of $2150. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BTIG — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 3, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
Aug 11, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$1900 → $2150
Aug 6, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$2150 → $2300
Aug 6, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
Jul 15, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$1950 → $2000
Jun 2, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
May 13, 2026CitigroupDowngradeBuy → Neutral$2200 → $1950
May 13, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$2100 → $1900
May 13, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$2050 → $1750
May 11, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$2600 → $2450
May 11, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$2500 → $2300
May 8, 2026BenchmarkMaintainedBuy$2780 → $2380

MELI Competitive Positioning

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is tracked alongside these names in Internet Retail on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

MELI is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.