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MELI·MercadoLibre, Inc.

$1530.27
-19.71 (-1.29%)
After Hours
High
$1,558.01
Open
$1,542.51
Market Cap
77.58B
52W High
$2,342.00
Low
$1,502.10
P. Close
$1,530.27
P/E
41.05
52W Low
$1,469.01
Fwd P/E
27.11
DailyIQ Est.
$2380.80
Inst. Own.
56.5%
Short Interest
2.01%
Days to Cover
2.1
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Nov 4, 2026tone -6.5 vs prior release · 155 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
19
BEARISH
News Sentiment
49
MIXED
On November 5, MercadoLibre reported its Q3 2026 results, showing revenue of US$10.75 billion and earnings per share of US$8.83, below the consensus estimate of US$9.27. The company’s operating margin fell to 6.3 percent from 12.2 percent a year earlier, a decline attributed to higher shipping, marketing and fulfillment costs. Shares dropped 12 percent in regular trading, extending a month‑long weak run, and closed at US$1,514.52. The margin contraction and earnings miss prompted Scotiabank to cut its price target for the stock from US$2,800 to US$2,300 while maintaining an Outperform rating for the sector. Management noted that the cost pressure could ease as Brazil’s shipping costs improve, suggesting a potential for margin recovery in the next quarter. The earnings report also highlighted a 41 percent FX‑neutral revenue growth driven by Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, and a 33 percent rise in gross merchandise volume, underscoring strong sales growth despite the profitability hit.
LOW TARGET
$1750 +15.9%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$2272 +50.5%
14 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$2800 +85.4%
16 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$1750.00 - $2800.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
8/17/5/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$2380.80 (+57.7%)
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Internet Retail
Exchange
NMS
Country
Uruguay
Symbol
MELI
Description
MercadoLibre is a leading e-commerce and financial technology company operating primarily in Latin America. Its core business revolves around its online marketplace, Mercado Libre, where individuals and businesses can buy and sell goods, accessible via web and mobile platforms. Complementing this marketplace is Mercado Pago, a fintech solution that provides payment processing and a suite of financial services, including investment options and credit solutions, to both platform users and the broader market. The company further enhances its value proposition through Mercado Envios, streamlining shipping logistics, and Mercado Ads, offering advertising opportunities for sellers. Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre also operates classifieds and e-commerce store creation services, solidifying its position as a comprehensive digital commerce ecosystem.
Bought (1Y)
724.64 shares
$1.2M
Sold (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Lawson Martin R-
Award/Grant94 shares2026-06-12
Sanders Richard A-
Award/Grant94 shares2026-06-12
SEGAL SUSAN-
Award/Grant94 shares2026-06-12
Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas-
Award/Grant94 shares2026-06-12
Calemzuk Emiliano-
Award/Grant94 shares2026-06-12
80/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
63.2%
Net Margin
9.8%
Revenue CAGR
34.2%
Current Ratio
1.17x
Debt / Equity
1.36x
Return on Equity
29.6%
Earnings Summary
In the most recent two quarters, Q2 2026 and Q3 2026, revenue grew from $10.169 billion to $10.750 billion, a 5.8% increase, while EPS rose from $9.19 to $8.83, a slight decline of 3.6%; both metrics beat analyst expectations in Q2 but fell short in Q3, reflecting margin pressure. Compared to the prior two quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026), revenue growth accelerated from a 3.5% increase to 5.8%, yet EPS growth slowed from 8.8% to a 3.6% decline, indicating a shift in profitability dynamics. Historically, the company has posted YoY revenue growth of 41% in Q3 2026, with a consistent pattern of beating revenue estimates while occasionally missing EPS forecasts, as seen in Q3 2026 where EPS was below estimates. The trend shows robust top‑line expansion driven by strong performance in Brazil and fintech services, but margin erosion due to increased logistics and marketing spend. Recent news highlights a deliberate investment strategy to accelerate the shift of commerce and financial services online across Latin America, with heavy spending on Brazilian logistics and credit expansion leading to lower operating margins; management has emphasized that this is a long‑term growth strategy.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$6.80$8.44$10.08$11.73$13.37Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$11.47 - -
Q3'26$9.55$8.83-7.5%
Q2'26$8.89$9.19+3.4%
Q4'25$11.70$11.03-5.7%
Q4'24$7.56$12.61+66.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$5.1B$7.1B$9.1B$11.1B$13.1BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$12.1B - -
Q3'26$10.9B$10.8B-1.2%
Q2'26$9.9B$10.2B+3.1%
Q4'25$8.6B$8.8B+1.4%
Q4'24 - $6.1B -

Market Data

MELI Stock Snapshot

BEARISH19/100
$1535.78+$5.51 (0.4%)
Market cap
77.58B
P/E ratio
41.0
Day range
$1502.10 – $1558.01
News sentiment
49/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$2271.93 (+47.9%)
Consensus
Buy · 32 analysts
52-week range+4.5% off low · -34.4% from high
$1469.01$2342.00
Price $1535.78 DailyIQ Est. $2380.80

The chart on MELI has not stabilised: price is near its 52-week low and the trend is still down. In Consumer Cyclical, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MELI?

CHEAP

At today's price, MercadoLibre, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -10.7% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 8.69% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 28.1% a year, so the market is asking for 38.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis MELI looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-10.7%
Growth trend
28.1%
Growth gap
-38.8 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
8.69%
Beta
1.01

Behaviour On Record

What MELI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
45.1% 67th pct
Below its peak
-37.7%
vs 200-day average
-9.8%
Up days (1y)
48%

MercadoLibre, Inc. is currently running 45.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MELI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 67th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 38.1%.

MELI is trading -37.7% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -30.0%, and the deepest was -53.8% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -9.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 15th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MELI closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, MELI finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.1% and an average of +4.9%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +8.8% on average, its weakest September at -4.9%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MELI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 244 of 3,268 sessions (7.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.5% and -9.1%.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MELI moved an average of 3.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.2% and a largest of -6.3%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MELI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MELI's sector?

MercadoLibre, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 5th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Retail industry group, MELI ranks 3rd of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank
#5 of 12
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
91
Industry rank
#3 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MELI?

CallsPuts

For MercadoLibre, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-11-06, 0 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.85), with at-the-money implied volatility around 44.7%.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-06)
0.85
ATM implied volatility
44.7%
Total open interest
4,876

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect MELI to earn?

Analysts expect MercadoLibre, Inc. to earn $38.17 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $77.68 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$9.27$7.57 to $9.8710$10.71B17
Dec 2026$11.16$9.16 to $12.5710$11.96B11
Mar 2027$11.46$10.51 to $12.163~$11.23B-
Jun 2027$11.85$9.99 to $13.853~$11.61B-
Sep 2027$13.74$11.98 to $16.323~$13.46B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$38.17$34.11 to $45.3621$41.86B26
Dec 2027$55.17$47.13 to $69.3821$54.07B26
Dec 2028$77.68$68.16 to $83.024~$76.10B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MELI?

Cantor Fitzgerald most recently reiterated its rating on MercadoLibre, Inc. to Overweight on Nov 5, 2026 with a price target of $2000 (from $2200). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Nov 5, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$2200 → $2000
Nov 5, 2026BTIGMaintainedBuy$2150 → $2050
Oct 27, 2026CitigroupUpgradeNeutral → Buy$2100 → $2050
Oct 27, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
Oct 13, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$2150 → $2100
Oct 12, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$2300 → $2200
Oct 6, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$2400 → $2500
Sep 3, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
Aug 11, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$1900 → $2150
Aug 6, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$2150 → $2300
Aug 6, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$2150
Jul 15, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$1950 → $2000

Earnings Release, Scored

What did MercadoLibre, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Nov 4, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone76.1/ 100-6.5 vs prior release
Hedging words0.21per 100 words-0.28 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–88

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Engagement, Scale and Cost to Serve The habits we described last quarter continued to build in Q3'26, and engagement deepened again.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    In Fintech, our users continue to pay and transact more with Mercado Pago, with TPV per user up 34% YoY.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    In Fintech, our platform is digital from the ground up, so our users can do much more with us for the same cost: the cost to serve an active user is around $1 per month, a figure that has been broadly flat since Q1'25 while transactions, products and revenue per user have all grown strongly.

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

MELI peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about MELI?

MELI fell 18.7% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 22 and 94 from Oct 6 to Oct 23, then dropped to 38 on Oct 26.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$1600$1800Oct 6: tone 62Oct 7: tone 84Oct 8: tone 92Oct 9: tone 69Oct 12: tone 65Oct 13: tone 47Oct 14Oct 15: tone 94Oct 16: tone 62Oct 19: tone 27Oct 20: tone 22Oct 21: tone 70Oct 22: tone 65Oct 23: tone 93Oct 26: tone 39Oct 27: tone 56Oct 28: tone 53Oct 29: tone 48Oct 30: tone 26Nov 2: tone 58Nov 3: tone 50Nov 4: tone 42Nov 5: tone 44Nov 6: tone 45Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 26 -8.3%same day: Can MercadoLibre Keep Expanding Marketplace Leadership?
  2. Nov 4 +5.1%same day: MercadoLibre’s Bulls Are Counting on Profit Growth. Here’s What We Learn Tonight
  3. Nov 5 -12.1%same day: MercadoLibre Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Technical analysis

How strong is MELI's momentum right now?

On the daily chart MELI ranks at the 19th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling MELI?

93 of the 219 tracked managers added to MELI in their latest 13F and 121 trimmed. Together they own 56.5% of the company, worth $48.4B. Capital Research Global Investors and Baillie Gifford alone hold 12.2%.

93adding121trimming5unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of MELI
  1. $5.3B positionAdded 15.5% last quarter
  2. $5.2B positionTrimmed 6.0% last quarter
  3. $3.2B positionAdded 7.8% last quarter
  4. $3.0B positionTrimmed 19.2% last quarter
  5. $2.5B positionTrimmed 5.6% last quarter
  6. $2.5B positionAdded 38.1% last quarter
  7. $2.4B positionAdded 79.0% last quarter
  8. $2.2B positionTrimmed 3.2% last quarter
  9. $1.1B positionTrimmed 5.6% last quarter
  10. $906.1M positionAdded 7.9% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading MELI?

6 members of Congress disclosed 16 MELI trades between Jan 27, 2025 and Jun 10, 2026: 11 buys and 5 sells, about $201.5K in estimated value.

BuysSellsJan ’25AprJulOctJan ’26Apr
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has MELI done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, MELI returned −17.8%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, all did better, led by WSM at +36.2%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−40%−20%0%+20%+40%+60%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6WSM +36.2%MELI −17.8%