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MRK·Merck & Co., Inc.

$143.79
-1.06 (-0.73%)
After Hours
High
$144.50
Open
$143.85
Market Cap
357.26B
52W High
$157.00
Low
$142.25
P. Close
$143.79
P/E
112.59
52W Low
$77.50
Fwd P/E
15.17
DailyIQ Est.
$159.81
Inst. Ownership
41.9%
Short Interest
1.22%
Days to Cover
2.2
Technical Score (1D)
50
NEUTRAL
News Sentiment
52
MIXED
Merck’s most recent announcement is a 2026 dividend of $0.85 per share, set to be paid on October 7, 2026, after an ex‑dividend date of September 15. The dividend is underpinned by solid cash flow from its oncology, vaccine and animal‑health businesses, signalling management’s confidence that earnings will remain stable enough to support the payout. This move reinforces the company’s dividend‑growth narrative and may attract income‑focused investors in the coming week, but it does not alter the firm’s valuation fundamentals. Shortly after, CEO Rob Davis highlighted a bullish pipeline outlook, noting that new product launches and positive readouts could more than double revenue by the mid‑2030s. The CEO cited individualized neoantigen therapy and the MK‑2010 bispecific as key drivers, along with a rapidly expanding animal‑health portfolio that is expected to more than double over the next decade. These developments suggest a material upside to long‑term earnings, but the timing of regulatory approvals and coverage decisions remains uncertain. Davis also emphasized that several clinical catalysts have arrived faster than expected and that additional regulatory filings are anticipated this year, which could accelerate the revenue impact. The company’s focus on drug affordability and patient access may help mitigate pricing pressure, but it also introduces potential cost‑control constraints. At the Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, Merck’s leadership reiterated its commitment to oncology and immunology programs, noting that several candidates are advancing toward late‑stage trials. While no new financial guidance was disclosed, the reaffirmation of R&D investment underscores the firm’s long‑term growth strategy. In the next 1–10 trading days, watch for any updates on the regulatory filing schedule for the pipeline candidates and the timing of the first coverage decisions, as these will be the primary catalysts that could move the stock. Also monitor any changes in cash‑flow metrics that could affect the sustainability of the announced dividend.
Earnings Summary
Merck & Co., Inc. is a global healthcare leader focused on innovative medicines and vaccines, with a core portfolio spanning oncology, vaccines, and diabetes, and a significant animal health segment that supports its diversified revenue base. In the highly competitive drug manufacturing sector, Merck’s strategy hinges on maintaining a robust pipeline and leveraging collaborations to sustain growth. Recent quarterly performance shows a steady revenue trajectory, with Q4 2024 revenue at $15.624 billion and Q1 2025 at $15.529 billion, a slight decline, followed by a rebound to $15.806 billion in Q2 2025 and $17.276 billion in Q3 2025, indicating a 10.5% YoY revenue increase in Q3. EPS has consistently outperformed estimates, beating in Q4 2024 (EPS 1.72 vs 1.665), Q1 2025 (2.22 vs 2.135), Q2 2025 (2.13 vs 2.028), and Q3 2025 (2.58 vs 2.349), demonstrating a pattern of earnings resilience despite revenue volatility. Historically, Merck has maintained double‑digit revenue growth over the past few years while occasionally missing EPS targets, yet the recent streak of EPS beats suggests improving profitability. Recent news highlights a clinical collaboration with Perspective Therapeutics to evaluate a radiopharmaceutical agent with Keytruda, signaling pipeline diversification and potential future revenue streams; the partnership also underscores Merck’s focus on combination therapies. Forward‑looking watch points for investors include monitoring the first patient enrollment and early safety data from the [212Pb]PSV359/Keytruda study, as these milestones could influence future earnings guidance, and watching for any updates on Keytruda’s biosimilar competition that may impact revenue projections. Investors should also track dividend policy stability, which has reinforced Merck’s income narrative amid pipeline expansion efforts.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-1.86$-0.60$0.65$1.90$3.16Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$2.21 - -
Q2'26$-0.27$-0.13+52.4%
Q1'26$2.09$-1.28-161.2%
Q4'25$2.03$2.04+0.5%
Q3'25$2.35$2.58+9.9%
Q2'25$2.03$2.13+5.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$15.6B$16.1B$16.7B$17.2B$17.8BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$17.5B - -
Q2'26$16.5B$16.6B+0.5%
Q1'26$16.2B$16.3B+0.7%
Q4'25$16.3B$16.4B+0.3%
Q3'25 - $17.3B -
Q2'25 - $15.8B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MRK Stock Snapshot

HOLD50/100
$144.11+$0.32 (0.2%)
Market cap
357.26B
P/E ratio
112.6
Day range
$142.25 – $144.50
News sentiment
52/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$152.96 (+6.1%)
Consensus
Buy · 38 analysts
52-week range+85.9% off low · -8.2% from high
$77.50$157.00
Price $144.11 DailyIQ Est. $159.81

MRK sits in the upper part of its 52-week range with the technical picture unresolved. Coverage is deep enough that new information gets priced quickly, so surprises tend to be macro rather than fundamental.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MRK?

RICH

At today's price, Merck & Co., Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 10.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.06% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 4.9% a year, so the market is asking for 5.7 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis MRK looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
10.6%
Historical FCF CAGR
4.9%
Growth gap
+5.7 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
7.06%
Beta
0.55

Behaviour On Record

What MRK's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
46.2% 98th pct
Below its peak
-8.4%
vs 200-day average
+20.0%
Up days (1y)
53%

Merck & Co., Inc. is currently running 46.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MRK's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 98th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 19.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MRK is trading -8.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -17.3%, and the deepest was -27.8% in 2024. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +20.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 95th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year MRK closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, MRK finished the month higher 2 of 14 times, with a median return of -1.7% and an average of -1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.1% on average, its weakest September at -1.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MRK has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 30 of 3,268 sessions (0.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.3% and -4.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MRK moved an average of 0.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.8% and a largest of +1.1%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MRK's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MRK's sector?

Merck & Co., Inc. sits in the Health Care sector, currently ranked 3rd of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading).

Sector rank
#3 of 11
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
80

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MRK?

CallsPuts

For Merck & Co., Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.38), with at-the-money implied volatility around 32.3%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±2.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $139.94–$148.28.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.38
ATM implied volatility
32.3%
Total open interest
102,506
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±2.9% ($139.94–$148.28)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MRK?

HSBC most recently reiterated its rating on Merck & Co., Inc. to Buy on Sep 10, 2026 with a price target of $172 (from $150). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 2 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
HSBC — Buy
90-day upgrades
2
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 10, 2026HSBCMaintainedBuy$150 → $172
Sep 9, 2026Leerink PartnersMaintainedOutperform$127 → $161
Sep 8, 2026GuggenheimMaintainedBuy$146 → $170
Sep 4, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$150 → $170
Aug 25, 2026Wolfe ResearchMaintainedOutperform$155 → $180
Aug 25, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$145 → $170
Aug 21, 2026Goldman SachsMaintainedBuy$140 → $160
Aug 20, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedOutperform$142 → $170
Aug 20, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$145 → $175
Aug 20, 2026RBC CapitalDowngradeOutperform → Sector Perform$142 → $150
Aug 20, 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeEqual-Weight → Overweight$116 → $179
Aug 12, 2026Daiwa CapitalUpgradeNeutral → Outperform$120 → $143

MRK Competitive Positioning

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is tracked alongside these names in Drug Manufacturers - General on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

MRK is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.