MRNA|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $-2.12 | $-1.97 | +7.3% |
| Q1'26 | $-1.96 | $-1.18 | +39.6% |
| Q4'25 | $-2.18 | $-2.11 | +3.4% |
| Q3'25 | $-2.18 | $-0.51 | +76.6% |
| Q2'25 | $-2.97 | $-2.13 | +28.3% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $105M | $145M | +38.0% |
| Q1'26 | $92M | $389M | +321.1% |
| Q4'25 | $254M | $678M | +167.1% |
| Q3'25 | - | $1.0B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $142M | - |
Market Data
MRNA Stock Snapshot
MRNA is currently trading at $59.40, giving Moderna, Inc. a market cap of 23.53B. Today's range spans $54.27–$59.44, with shares opening at $54.51 and moving up $0.25 (0.4%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 77/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 62/100.
Over the past year MRNA has traded between $22.28 and $85.60 - the current price is +166.6% off the 52-week low and -30.6% from the high.
The earnings revision cycle for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) may be in an upward phase - large-cap Healthcare names (23.53B market cap) showing bullish technicals (77/100, BUY) alongside bullish sentiment (62/100) often see analyst target increases in the weeks following this kind of dual-signal alignment. Price: $59.40 (in the middle of its 52-week range). Range: $22.28–$85.60. The chart frequently leads the fundamental revision, and the chart is bullish.
Earnings revision cycles in large-cap Healthcare names tend to compound: when technicals confirm a BUY thesis (77/100) and news sentiment (62/100, bullish) supports the narrative, analyst upgrades follow price rather than lead it. At $59.40 (in the middle of its 52-week range), MRNA's position within the $22.28–$85.60 annual range suggests there's room for multiple expansion before the stock encounters meaningful technical resistance.
Company Insights: Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a biotechnology firm focused on developing messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines, with a global reach across the United States, Europe, and other international markets. The company's core business involves the development and commercialization of vaccines and therapeutics for a variety of medical conditions. Moderna's strategic focus encompasses respiratory vaccines, including those for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza, alongside programs targeting latent and enteric viruses, bacterial diseases, and broader public health challenges.
Beyond its vaccine initiatives, Moderna is actively pursuing treatments in oncology and rare diseases, leveraging its proprietary mRNA technology. The company's research and development efforts are bolstered by strategic collaborations with established pharmaceutical entities such as AstraZeneca, Merck, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Moderna aims to address significant unmet medical needs through the advancement of mRNA-based therapies.
Recent financial performance indicates revenue fluctuations, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching $1.016 billion before decreasing to $678 million in Q4 2025, though this Q4 figure significantly surpassed analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) have shown volatility, moving from -2.13 in Q2 2025 to -0.51 in Q3 2025, then declining to -2.11 in Q4 2025. Moderna has missed EPS estimates in four of the last five quarters, highlighting the challenges in consistent profitability.
mRNA Platform
Moderna's core competency lies in its proprietary messenger RNA (mRNA) technology platform.
This platform enables the rapid development and manufacturing of vaccines and therapeutics across diverse therapeutic areas.
The company is leveraging this technology to address significant unmet medical needs in infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases.
Product Catalysts
Key near-term catalysts include the FDA's decision on the flu vaccine by August 5th, a critical factor for 2026 sales projections.
Anticipated product sales in 2026, particularly from the next-generation COVID vaccine and the seasonal flu vaccine, are driving positive sentiment.
The company's pipeline includes programs for RSV, CMV, and various oncology indications, offering future growth potential.
Financial Performance
Revenue has shown significant volatility, with Q4 2025 revenue of $678 million substantially exceeding estimates.
Earnings per share (EPS) have been inconsistent, missing estimates in four of the last five quarters.
Year-over-year growth trajectory displays fluctuating revenue and persistent EPS misses, indicating operational challenges.
Competitive Risks
Moderna faces intense competition within the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors from established players and emerging firms.
A recent lawsuit filed by BioNTech alleging patent infringement introduces a significant legal and financial risk.
The success of its products is also dependent on regulatory approvals and market adoption against existing and pipeline competitors.
Positioning MRNA
Moderna's stock performance is heavily influenced by pipeline progression and product launch success. Investors should consider adding exposure following positive regulatory news, such as the upcoming FDA decision on the flu vaccine, or strong pre-clinical/clinical trial data. Conversely, reducing exposure may be prudent if the BioNTech lawsuit results in unfavorable outcomes or if key product candidates face significant delays or competitive setbacks.
Key Metrics for MRNA
Moderna's financial health hinges on its ability to advance its mRNA pipeline and secure commercial product sales. Investors closely monitor key development and commercialization milestones.
Product Revenue: Measures sales from approved mRNA vaccines and therapeutics. Strong growth indicates successful commercialization; declining sales suggest market challenges. Crucial for Moderna's revenue generation and profitability.
Pipeline Progress: Tracks advancement of drug candidates through clinical trials and regulatory approvals. Positive trial results and approvals are bullish; delays or failures are bearish. Essential for Moderna's future growth prospects.
R&D Expenses: Monitors investment in research and development for new mRNA technologies. Increasing R&D can signal future growth but also impacts near-term profitability. Important for understanding Moderna's innovation capacity and cost structure.
Partnership Milestones: Reflects revenue and value generated from collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies. Successful partnerships drive revenue and de-risk development; failed collaborations are negative. Key indicator of Moderna's strategic execution.
Cash Burn Rate: Assesses the rate at which Moderna is spending its cash reserves. A high burn rate can be concerning if not offset by revenue growth or funding. Important for evaluating Moderna's financial sustainability.
Analyst Price Targets for MRNA
Wall Street's current consensus view on Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), based on the most recently tracked analyst coverage.
Reflects the most recently tracked analyst ratings for MRNA and may lag real-time updates. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.
What Moves MRNA Stock?
Moderna's stock performance is primarily driven by the success and market adoption of its mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics, particularly in respiratory diseases. Investor sentiment also reacts to clinical trial progress and regulatory approvals.
Vaccine Sales
Moderna's revenue is heavily reliant on sales of its COVID-19 vaccines and upcoming seasonal vaccines like influenza and RSV. The company's ability to secure market share and achieve strong commercial uptake for these products is paramount.
Strong vaccine sales directly translate to higher revenue and improved earnings, which can drive the stock price higher. Conversely, lower-than-expected sales or increased competition can put downward pressure on the stock.
Pipeline Progress
The company's future growth hinges on the successful development and commercialization of its diverse pipeline, including oncology and rare disease treatments. Positive clinical trial data and regulatory milestones are crucial for validating the long-term potential of its mRNA platform.
Advancements in the pipeline, especially for high-impact indications, can significantly boost investor confidence and lead to stock appreciation. Setbacks or delays in clinical trials or regulatory reviews can, however, trigger sell-offs.
Regulatory Decisions
Key regulatory decisions, such as the FDA's approval of new vaccines or indications, act as significant catalysts for Moderna. The upcoming FDA decision on the flu vaccine by August 5th is a prime example of such a critical event.
Positive regulatory outcomes can unlock new revenue streams and expand market access, thereby supporting a higher stock valuation. Conversely, rejections or delays in approvals can dampen growth prospects and negatively impact the stock price.
Litigation Risk
Moderna faces legal challenges, including a patent infringement lawsuit filed by BioNTech. Such litigation introduces uncertainty and potential financial liabilities for the company.
The outcome of these legal battles could have a material impact on Moderna's financial performance and intellectual property position, potentially affecting its stock valuation and investor confidence.
Key insight: Moderna's stock is a bet on the continued success of its mRNA vaccine franchise and the successful commercialization of its broader pipeline. Key catalysts include upcoming regulatory decisions and the resolution of ongoing litigation.
MRNA Recent Earnings History
- Q4 2025
EPS: $-2.11 actual vs $-2.18 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $678M actual vs $254M estimate
- Q3 2025
EPS: $-0.51 actual vs $-2.18 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $1,016M actual
- Q2 2025
EPS: $-2.13 actual vs $-2.97 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $142M actual
- Q1 2025
EPS: $-2.52 actual vs $-3.18 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $108M actual
- Q4 2024
EPS: $-2.91 actual vs $-2.76 estimate (miss) · Revenue: $966M actual
MRNA Competitive Positioning
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is tracked alongside these names in Biotechnology on DailyIQ.
Risk Factors
Moderna's risks are primarily tied to the success of its mRNA pipeline and the competitive landscape of vaccine development. Investors should monitor clinical trial outcomes and regulatory approvals closely.
- Pipeline Risk
Moderna's future revenue heavily depends on the successful development and commercialization of its diverse mRNA pipeline. Failure in clinical trials or regulatory hurdles for key candidates could significantly impact future growth. This risk materializes if new drug candidates fail to meet efficacy or safety standards.
- COVID Vaccine Dependence
While diversifying, Moderna's revenue is still significantly influenced by COVID-19 vaccine sales. A decline in demand or the emergence of more effective competing vaccines could reduce sales. This risk would materialize if global vaccination rates drop or if competitors offer superior COVID-19 products.
- Patent Litigation
The recent patent infringement lawsuit filed by BioNTech poses a significant legal and financial risk. Adverse rulings could lead to substantial damages or licensing fees, impacting profitability. This risk becomes more acute if the lawsuit progresses unfavorably for Moderna.
- Regulatory Hurdles
The biotechnology sector is subject to stringent regulatory approvals from bodies like the FDA. Delays or rejections for new vaccines or therapeutics can hinder market entry and revenue generation. Key regulatory decisions, such as the upcoming flu vaccine decision, represent critical junctures for this risk.
- Competition Risk
The rapid pace of innovation in mRNA technology and vaccine development means intense competition. Other biotech firms, including BioNTech, are developing similar or competing products. This risk is present as competitors advance their pipelines and seek market share.
Frequently Asked Questions About MRNA
Is Moderna (MRNA) stock a good investment?
The investment thesis for Moderna (MRNA) often centers on its pioneering mRNA technology platform and its potential to address a wide range of diseases beyond COVID-19. Success hinges on the continued development and commercialization of its pipeline, including vaccines for RSV, influenza, and other infectious diseases, as well as potential cancer therapies. Investors should consider the company's ability to navigate the competitive biotech landscape and secure future revenue streams.
What drives Moderna (MRNA) stock price?
Moderna's stock price is primarily influenced by clinical trial results, regulatory approvals for new vaccines and therapeutics, and the commercial performance of its existing products, notably its COVID-19 vaccine. Pipeline progress, strategic partnerships, and broader market sentiment towards biotechnology companies also play a significant role. Recent news regarding patent disputes and analyst ratings can also cause short-term volatility.
Does Moderna (MRNA) pay a dividend?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) does not currently pay a dividend. The company, like many in the biotechnology sector, prioritizes reinvesting its capital back into research and development to advance its extensive pipeline of mRNA-based medicines. Future dividend payments would depend on the company's profitability, cash flow generation, and strategic financial decisions.
What is Moderna's (MRNA) valuation based on?
Moderna's valuation is largely based on the perceived future success of its mRNA platform and its diverse pipeline. Key factors include the potential market size for its various vaccine and therapeutic candidates, the probability of regulatory approval, and the company's ability to achieve significant sales from these future products. Current revenue streams, particularly from its COVID-19 vaccine, also contribute, but the long-term outlook heavily relies on pipeline execution.
What are the risks of investing in Moderna (MRNA) stock?
Investing in Moderna (MRNA) carries several risks inherent to the biotechnology sector. These include the high failure rate of drug development, intense competition, potential patent disputes such as the one with BioNTech, and the cyclical nature of vaccine demand. Regulatory hurdles and the company's reliance on a few key products also present significant challenges.
How is Moderna's (MRNA) earnings performance trending?
Moderna's (MRNA) earnings per share (EPS) have shown some volatility, moving from -2.13 in Q2 2025 to -0.51 in Q3 2025, and then declining to -2.11 in Q4 2025. While revenue saw a substantial increase in Q3 2025, it decreased in Q4 2025. The company has missed EPS estimates in several recent quarters, indicating challenges in consistent profitability, though recent revenue figures have sometimes exceeded expectations.
What is Moderna's (MRNA) outlook for its COVID-19 and flu vaccines?
Moderna's outlook for its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine and its seasonal flu vaccine is a key focus for investors in 2026. Positive analyst sentiment suggests anticipation of strong product sales, particularly from these programs. The upcoming FDA decision on the flu vaccine is a critical catalyst that could significantly impact the company's financial trajectory.
How might the BioNTech lawsuit affect Moderna (MRNA)?
The patent infringement lawsuit filed by BioNTech against Moderna (MRNA) introduces a significant risk. The outcome of this legal battle could potentially impact future revenue streams, lead to financial penalties, or affect the company's intellectual property rights related to its mRNA technology. Investors will need to monitor the progression and resolution of this lawsuit closely.
What therapeutic areas is Moderna (MRNA) exploring beyond vaccines?
Beyond its established vaccine portfolio, Moderna (MRNA) is actively developing mRNA-based therapeutics for oncology and rare diseases. This diversification strategy aims to leverage its core technology platform to address a broader spectrum of unmet medical needs. Progress in these areas, including clinical trial advancements and potential future approvals, is crucial for the company's long-term growth narrative.
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