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MRSH·Marsh

$174.73
+0.15 (+0.09%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$175.01+0.28 (+0.16%)
High
$176.24
Open
$173.76
Market Cap
84.35B
52W High
$207.83
Low
$172.63
P. Close
$174.73
P/E
21.19
52W Low
$156.60
Fwd P/E
15.34
DailyIQ Est.
$207.79
Inst. Ownership
45.2%
Short Interest
1.37%
Days to Cover
3.2
Technical Score (1D)
5
SELL
News Sentiment
43
BEARISH
Marsh & McLennan’s stock has slipped 5.9 % year‑to‑date, lagging the S&P 500’s 11.6 % gain, a trend that analysts attribute to rising operating costs, notably higher wages and talent‑retention expenses that could erode future margins. The company remains above its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, suggesting short‑term support but leaving room for further pressure if cost growth outpaces revenue. In 20.8 hours, the firm announced that its third‑quarter earnings will be released on October 15 ahead of the market open, followed by a CEO‑CFO investor call; no new guidance has been issued, so the market is awaiting the actual results to gauge whether the cost trend has materialized. The same day, the company disclosed that CEO John Doyle exercised 16,656 options under a Rule 10b5‑1 plan, selling shares at $188.51; the sale, while sizable, is structured to mitigate timing concerns and is unlikely to alter management’s outlook. The combination of cost‑pressure concerns and the pending earnings release means traders should watch the Q3 earnings for any indication of margin compression or revenue growth, and monitor the company’s guidance for signs of strategic adjustments. Additionally, keep an eye on the post‑earnings analyst coverage, as any deviation from expectations could trigger a reassessment of the firm’s valuation relative to peers. Finally, observe the broader insurance‑and‑risk‑management sector for macro‑rate movements, as rising rates could amplify Marsh’s cost challenges and impact its competitive positioning.
Earnings Summary
Marsh & McLennan Companies is a global professional services firm that delivers risk, strategy, and people‑related advisory and insurance solutions through its Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting segments, operating in the financial services and insurance brokerage space. The company’s long history and diversified client base position it as a key player in the risk‑management industry. In Q1 2025, Marsh reported an EPS of $3.06 versus an estimate of $2.99779 and revenue of $7.061 billion, while Q1 2026 EPS of $3.29 matched the $3.2903 estimate and revenue rose to $7.597 billion, a 7.2% increase. Q2 2026 saw EPS of $2.96 beating the $1.98189 estimate, with revenue of $7.404 billion slightly below the $7.422 billion estimate, a 6.2% YoY rise. The company has consistently met or exceeded earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with EPS beats in each period and revenue growth maintained at roughly 6–7% YoY. Historically, Marsh has shown steady YoY revenue expansion while occasionally missing EPS estimates, yet its core advisory and underwriting businesses have sustained healthy margins, as evidenced by the 6.2% revenue increase in Q2 2026 despite a 7% rise in operating expenses. Recent news highlights the partnership between Oliver Wyman and Anthropic’s Claude Partner Network, which could broaden Marsh’s AI‑driven consulting portfolio, and the acquisition of Accel Holdings, expected to diversify its underwriting mix. These developments may enhance revenue mix and client retention, though short‑term earnings impact is likely modest. Investors should watch for guidance on the Consulting unit’s trajectory, cost‑management initiatives, and any updates on the Accel integration, as these factors will be key to confirming whether the current bullish sentiment persists. Additionally, monitoring underwriting loss ratios and any changes in pricing or service offerings will help gauge the sustainability of Marsh’s earnings momentum.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.78$2.20$2.63$3.06$3.49Q1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.97 - -
Q2'26$1.98$2.96+49.4%
Q1'26$3.29$3.29-0.0%
Q1'25$3.00$3.06+2.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$6.7B$6.9B$7.2B$7.5B$7.7BQ1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$6.8B - -
Q2'26$7.4B$7.4B-0.3%
Q1'26$7.6B$7.6B+0.5%
Q1'25 - $7.1B -

Market Data

MRSH Stock Snapshot

SELL5/100
$175.01+$0.28 (0.2%)
Market cap
84.35B
P/E ratio
21.2
Day range
$172.63 – $176.24
News sentiment
43/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$207.10 (+18.3%)
Consensus
Hold · 32 analysts
52-week range+11.8% off low · -15.8% from high
$156.60$207.83
Price $175.01 DailyIQ Est. $207.79

Momentum has rolled over on Marsh, which is what drives the bearish read. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Financial Services tend to move together on rotation.

Behaviour On Record

What MRSH's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
19.7% 70th pct
Below its peak
-32.7%
vs 200-day average
-1.5%
Up days (1y)
48%

Marsh is currently running 19.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MRSH's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 70th percentile a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 16.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MRSH is trading -32.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -11.1%, and the deepest was -35.8% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -1.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 18th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MRSH closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, MRSH finished the month higher 2 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.9% and an average of -1.8%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.4% on average, its weakest September at -1.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MRSH has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 74 of 3,268 sessions (2.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +25.0% and -16.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MRSH's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MRSH's sector?

Marsh sits in the Financials sector, currently ranked 5th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#5 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
50

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MRSH?

CallsPuts

For Marsh's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.10), with at-the-money implied volatility around 27.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±8.1% move by that expiry — a range of about $171.65–$201.93.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
1.10
ATM implied volatility
27.4%
Total open interest
8,260
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±8.1% ($171.65–$201.93)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MRSH?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Marsh to Equal-Weight on Aug 19, 2026 with a price target of $200 (from $180). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
Morgan StanleyEqual-Weight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
-1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 19, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$180 → $200
Jul 27, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$212 → $216
Jul 22, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$186 → $188
Jul 22, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$197 → $201
Jul 22, 2026CitigroupDowngradeBuy → Neutral$200
Jul 13, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$206 → $212
Jul 10, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$236 → $234
Jul 9, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$210 → $218
Jul 9, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$194 → $197
Jul 8, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$203 → $212
Jul 6, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$180 → $175
Jun 9, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$230 → $203

MRSH Competitive Positioning

Marsh (MRSH) is tracked alongside these names in Insurance Brokers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.