MSTR·MicroStrategy Incorporated

Realized volatility (21d)

71.9% 70th pct

Below its peak

-68.9%

vs 200-day average

+12.3%

Up days (1y)

46%

MicroStrategy Incorporated is currently running 71.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MSTR's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 70th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 46.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MSTR is trading -68.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -38.3%, and the deepest was -75.4% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +12.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 68th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year MSTR closed higher on 46% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, MSTR finished the month higher 10 of 14 times, with a median return of +13.7% and an average of +11.5%. Its strongest month historically has been October at +11.5% on average, its weakest December at -4.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MSTR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 520 of 3,269 sessions (15.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.9% and -16.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MSTR moved an average of 12.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +4.1% and a largest of +27.6%.

All figures computed from 3,270 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MSTR's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.