MSTR·MicroStrategy Incorporated

Realized volatility (21d)

74.7% 72nd pct

Below its peak

-66.4%

vs 200-day average

+21.1%

Up days (1y)

45%

MicroStrategy Incorporated is currently running 74.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MSTR's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 72nd percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 46.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MSTR is trading -66.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -38.3%, and the deepest was -75.4% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +21.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 77th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year MSTR closed higher on 45% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, MSTR finished the month higher 10 of 13 times, with a median return of +15.3% and an average of +12.2%. Its strongest month historically has been October at +12.2% on average, its weakest December at -4.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MSTR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 519 of 3,268 sessions (15.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.9% and -16.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MSTR moved an average of 12.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +4.1% and a largest of +27.6%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MSTR's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.