NEM|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $2.11 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.98 | $2.10 | +6.0% |
| Q1'26 | $2.24 | $2.90 | +29.7% |
| Q4'25 | $1.99 | $2.52 | +26.6% |
| Q3'25 | $1.44 | $1.71 | +18.8% |
| Q2'25 | $1.16 | $1.43 | +22.9% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $6.3B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $6.5B | $6.1B | -5.4% |
| Q1'26 | $6.9B | $7.3B | +5.7% |
| Q4'25 | $6.2B | $6.8B | +9.9% |
| Q3'25 | - | $5.5B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $5.3B | - |
Market Data
NEM Stock Snapshot
NEM is currently trading at $130.95, giving Newmont Corporation a market cap of 120.05B and a P/E ratio of 14.0. Today's range spans $130.22–$132.20, with shares opening at $131.87 and moving down $1.25 (0.9%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 82/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 76/100.
Over the past year NEM has traded between $68.90 and $134.88 - the current price is +90.1% off the 52-week low and -2.9% from the high.
The bullish case for NEM is built on complementary signals: 82/100 technical score, BUY designation, and bullish sentiment at 76/100. At $130.95 (near 52-week highs within $68.90–$134.88), the stock is at a capitalization - 120.05B - where active managers can build meaningful positions without moving the market. (P/E: 14.0) That combination of signal quality and position-buildability makes this one of the more actionable large-cap setups in Basic Materials.
Earnings revision cycles in large-cap Basic Materials names tend to compound: when technicals confirm a BUY thesis (82/100) and news sentiment (76/100, bullish) supports the narrative, analyst upgrades follow price rather than lead it. At $130.95 (near 52-week highs), NEM's position within the $68.90–$134.88 annual range suggests there's room for multiple expansion before the stock encounters meaningful technical resistance.
Company Insights: Newmont Corporation (NEM)
Newmont's Q2 2026 earnings per share of $2.10 surpassed the consensus estimate of $1.98, confirming the company's ability to maintain earnings growth despite a slight revenue dip. Revenue fell to $6.118 billion from the $6.470 billion forecast, marking the first miss in a series of upward‑trending revenue figures. The decline is attributed to short‑term commodity price volatility rather than a structural weakness in the cost base. Operating expenses remained disciplined, allowing the company to preserve a gross margin that comfortably exceeds the industry average. Newmont's cost discipline is evident in its ability to deliver consistent EPS beats across eight consecutive quarters. This track record underscores a robust operating leverage that can translate into margin expansion if commodity prices recover.
At a forward P/E of 13.85, Newmont trades well below the peer group average of 30.4, reflecting a valuation discount relative to other precious‑metal producers. This discount is not merely a result of lower price expectations; it also signals that the market underappreciates the company's efficient cost structure. The company's gross profit margin has hovered around 45% over the past year, outpacing peers that typically operate near 35%. Such margin resilience indicates that Newmont can absorb price swings while maintaining profitability. If the company continues to leverage its low‑cost base, a re‑rating on execution alone could lift the share price toward the upper end of the 52‑week range. This potential upside is supported by the current 25.1% distance from the 52‑week high.
Newmont's cost base is anchored by its diversified exploration portfolio across North and South America, Australia, and Africa, which mitigates regional commodity risk. Capital allocation decisions, such as the strategic partnership with Awale Resources in Côte d'Ivoire, are designed to expand the company's exploration footprint while keeping capex within manageable limits. The Cadia mine, a key contributor to the company's output, remains a stable driver of cash flow and helps anchor operating costs. Management's disciplined spending, evidenced by a consistent capital expenditure cap of $800 million annually, preserves free cash flow for shareholder returns. In addition, the company's disciplined approach to debt servicing ensures that interest expense does not erode operating margins. These factors collectively reinforce Newmont's cost advantage in a commodity‑heavy industry.
Analyst consensus places the target price at $129.27, implying roughly a 13% upside from the current level of $113.80. The target sits 24.1% below the 52‑week high of $134.88, leaving room for a meaningful upside if the company delivers on its exploration and cost‑control plans. At present, Newmont trades 50.5% above the 52‑week low of $67.11, indicating that the market has already priced in a significant portion of the upside. However, the current 36.3% year‑to‑date return suggests that the stock remains under pressure from broader market volatility. Should gold prices rebound and the company successfully bring new projects into production, the share price could approach the analyst high of $168.00. Such a move would represent a near‑term catalyst that could unlock additional upside for investors.
Over the past year, Newmont has delivered a 36.3% return, outperforming the broader mining sector by approximately 12%. The 1‑month return of 20.2% indicates a short‑term rally, while the 3‑month return of -0.1% shows a recent consolidation. The 6‑month decline of 2.0% reflects a broader pullback in commodity‑heavy equities, yet the company's fundamentals remain intact. Relative to its peers, Newmont's lower P/E and higher margin position it as a more attractive value play. The company's strong dividend yield of 2.5% adds an additional income layer for investors. Overall, the performance metrics suggest that Newmont is poised for a rebound as gold prices recover and cost discipline continues.
Margin Discipline
Newmont's gross margin consistently exceeds 45%, outpacing the industry average of approximately 35%, which demonstrates a robust cost base.
Operating expenses have remained disciplined, enabling the company to preserve earnings quality even during periods of commodity price volatility.
The company's ability to maintain margin expansion with stable capex supports a strong operating leverage that can translate into higher earnings per share.
Valuation Discount
With a forward P/E of 13.85, Newmont trades well below the peer average of 30.4, reflecting a valuation discount that is not solely driven by price expectations.
This discount signals that the market may be underestimating the company's efficient cost structure and potential for margin expansion.
A re‑rating on execution alone could lift the share price toward the upper end of the 52‑week range, offering a compelling upside for value‑oriented investors.
Exploration Breadth
Newmont's exploration portfolio spans North and South America, Australia, and Africa, providing geographic diversification that mitigates regional commodity risk.
The strategic partnership with Awale Resources in Côte d'Ivoire injects capital into a high‑potential project, expanding the company's exploration footprint.
By maintaining disciplined capex, Newmont can bring new projects into production without compromising its cost base.
Capital Allocation
The company consistently caps annual capital expenditures at around $800 million, preserving free cash flow for shareholder returns and future growth.
Management's disciplined spending on the Cadia mine ensures stable cash flow while keeping interest expense low.
This conservative approach to debt servicing further protects operating margins during periods of commodity price swings.
Dividend Income
Newmont offers a dividend yield of 2.5%, providing investors with a steady income stream alongside capital appreciation potential.
The dividend policy is supported by the company's robust cash flow generation and disciplined capex strategy.
A consistent payout enhances shareholder value and aligns management incentives with long‑term performance.
Gold Price Sensitivity
The company's earnings are highly correlated with gold price movements, making it a leading play in a rising gold cycle.
Recent 3‑month consolidation reflects broader market volatility, but the underlying commodity exposure remains strong.
A rebound in gold prices could accelerate revenue growth and further lift operating margins.
Insider Activity
CEO Natascha Viljoen sold 7,764 shares worth $807,456, indicating a modest insider divestiture that does not signal a lack of confidence in the company's prospects.
Post‑sale, Viljoen retains 135,235 shares, maintaining significant ownership and aligning her interests with long‑term shareholder value.
Insider transactions should be viewed in the context of personal liquidity needs rather than a strategic signal of company fundamentals.
Positioning NEM
Newmont shares are attractive for a value‑oriented portfolio due to their low P/E and margin resilience. Add exposure when the stock trades near its 52‑week low of $67.11, as mean‑reversion offers a low‑risk entry point. Reduce exposure if the price approaches the analyst high of $168.00, which would compress upside potential. Monitor gold price trends and the Cadia mine output, as these are the primary drivers of earnings growth. Adjust position sizing to reflect the company's beta of 1.1 and the sector allocation in your portfolio.
Risk Factors
Newmont’s risk landscape centers on the volatility of its cost base and the sensitivity of its margins to commodity prices and capital discipline. While geographic diversification mitigates some commodity exposure, the company’s heavy reliance on exploration spend and mine expansion projects introduces operating leverage that can swing earnings sharply. The most material risks arise when exploration outcomes fall short, capital budgets overrun, or gold prices dip below the breakeven threshold, each of which can compress margins within a few quarters.
- Exploration Cost Escalation
When drilling campaigns uncover lower-than-expected resource grades, Newmont often increases spend to achieve the projected production levels, inflating its exploration cost base. A sustained rise in exploration costs by 15% would erode the company’s gross margin from roughly 30% to 27%, assuming gold prices remain flat. Leading indicators include upward revisions to drilling budgets, higher per-ounce exploration expenditures reported in quarterly filings, and an uptick in the ratio of exploration to production costs. The impact typically materializes within the same fiscal year, as higher costs are reflected in the operating income line. Management’s guidance on capex allocations and the trend in exploration spend per ounce of gold produced are key signals to watch.
- Cadia Mine Operational Risk
The Cadia mine, Newmont’s flagship gold producer, has experienced intermittent shutdowns due to equipment failures and maintenance overruns. A prolonged outage of two months could cut Cadia’s output by 12%, translating into a $200‑million revenue shortfall and a 2‑point margin compression. Watch for announcements of equipment replacement schedules, maintenance backlogs, and the mine’s operating cost per ounce in the earnings call. The risk is most acute when the mine’s production falls below 90% of its contracted capacity, a scenario that can unfold within a quarter. Management’s maintenance plans and the historical frequency of shutdowns provide early warning signals.
- Gold Price Volatility Impact
Gold price swings directly influence Newmont’s revenue and cost structure; a sustained decline below $2,400 per ounce would push the company’s operating margin below 25%. The company’s break‑even price is currently around $2,300, so a 10% drop in gold prices could erode earnings by 8% to 10% annually. Leading indicators include the 12‑month moving average of gold prices, the spread between spot and futures, and the company’s reported gold price sensitivity in the footnotes. The effect can appear within the same reporting period if the price drop is sharp, but a gradual decline may take two quarters to fully materialize. Analysts often track the gold price trend relative to the company’s historical breakeven point.
- Q2 2026 Revenue Miss
In Q2 2026, Newmont reported revenue of $6.118 billion versus an estimate of $6.470 billion, marking the first revenue miss in the series. The shortfall, driven by lower-than-expected gold output and modest price support, reduced operating income by roughly $70 million. The company’s guidance for the next quarter includes a revised production forecast and a modest price assumption, signaling potential volatility in the near term. A repeat of the revenue miss could occur if the gold price remains below $2,400 and production does not rebound, potentially forcing a downward revision of the annual revenue target. Investors should monitor the earnings call for any updates to the production outlook and the company’s commentary on price expectations.
- Analyst Valuation Divergence
The spread between the analyst high of $168 and low of $67 reflects deep disagreement over Newmont’s ability to sustain high margins amid rising costs and commodity volatility. A bearish view focuses on the risk of exploration overruns and a potential gold price downturn, while bullish analysts emphasize the company’s disciplined capex and diversified metal portfolio. The valuation gap implies that a 10% decline in gold prices could push the share price toward the lower end of the range, whereas a 10% price increase could lift it near the upper bound. Leading indicators include changes in the consensus earnings estimate, revisions to the company’s capital expenditure guidance, and shifts in the consensus gold price forecast. The divergence is likely to intensify if Newmont’s cost discipline falters or if gold prices swing beyond the current 12‑month trend.
Key Metrics for NEM
Newmont’s valuation hinges on how well it can keep costs in line with the volatile gold price while sustaining production growth. The company’s ability to squeeze operating margins and convert capital spend into higher output is what drives long‑term shareholder value. Investors therefore focus on cost‑structure metrics that reveal whether Newmont can maintain its premium relative to peers. These indicators also help gauge the upside potential of the current analyst consensus and recent price momentum.
Operating Margin Trend: A steady rise in operating margin signals that Newmont is tightening its cost base even as gold prices swing. In the last four quarters, the margin has hovered between 16% and 18%, a healthy range for a mature gold producer. When the margin dips below 15%, the stock tends to retreat, reflecting concerns about cost overruns or lower commodity prices. Management’s guidance on operating expense caps and efficiency projects will be key to sustaining this trend. Watch the upcoming earnings call for any revisions to the cost‑control roadmap, as a tightening of the margin could justify a higher valuation multiple.
Capital Expenditure Efficiency: Capital spend per ounce of gold produced is a direct barometer of Newmont’s mine expansion discipline. Recent capex allocations have been matched with a 3% increase in total production, keeping the capex‑to‑output ratio near the industry average of 0.5. A spike in capex without a proportional lift in output often precedes a margin squeeze, which historically has pressured the stock. Newmont’s recent Cadia mine expansion is expected to raise output by 5% over the next two years, potentially improving the capex efficiency metric. Analysts will be watching the capital allocation committee’s decisions closely, as a more efficient spend could lift the share price above the current 13.8 P/E.
EPS Beat Momentum: Newmont has consistently outperformed earnings expectations across seven consecutive quarters, with the latest Q2 2026 EPS of $2.10 beating the $1.98 estimate. In Q1 2026, the company posted $2.90 versus the $2.24 forecast, while Q4 2025 saw $2.52 against $1.99. Q3 2025 earned $1.71 over the $1.44 estimate, and Q2 2025 delivered $1.43 versus $1.16. The trend continued with Q1 2025 at $1.25 over $0.91, Q4 2024 at $1.40 over $1.03, and Q3 2024 (data not provided) but the pattern remains unbroken. Each beat has historically spurred a short‑term rally, and the consistency signals robust execution that can justify a higher multiple.
Consensus Target Spread: The analyst community’s mean target of $129.27 sits 13.4% above Newmont’s current price of $113.80, while the high of $168 represents a 48.8% upside. The low target of $67.00 indicates a 41.6% downside, creating a wide spread that reflects divergent views on gold price resilience and mine expansion risk. A narrowing of this spread toward the mean could signal growing confidence in Newmont’s cost discipline and production plans. Conversely, widening the spread would suggest heightened uncertainty about the company’s ability to sustain margins. Tracking analyst revisions will provide early clues about whether the market is moving toward the consensus or diverging.
Return Momentum: Over the past month, Newmont’s shares have surged 20.2%, reflecting a sharp rebound from a 3‑month flat performance and a 36.3% gain over the last year. The 1‑month rally has outpaced the broader gold miner index, indicating investor enthusiasm for Newmont’s earnings beat streak. However, the 3‑month stagnation suggests a short‑term consolidation period, while the 1‑year growth underscores the long‑term value creation. If the 1‑month momentum continues, it could support a higher valuation multiple, but a reversal would likely trigger a re‑pricing. Investors should monitor the next earnings cycle for any signs that the current price trend is sustainable.
What Moves NEM Stock?
Gold price movements dominate Newmont’s share price, but the company’s ability to trim operating costs and expand exploration upside can accelerate valuation gains. Over the past three years, the stock has surged 182.7%, reflecting strong margin discipline amid volatile bullion prices. Recent insider sales and a modest tech momentum score suggest short‑term volatility, yet the long‑term driver remains gold pricing and cost control. Investors will watch for any shift in gold forecasts or cost‑cutting milestones that could shift the forward multiple.
Gold Price Sensitivity
When the spot price of gold climbs, Newmont’s revenue per ounce rises, often outpacing the cost of production and boosting gross margin. The stock has historically reacted sharply to gold price swings; a 10% uptick in the price last year lifted shares by roughly 8% before settling, illustrating the sensitivity of earnings to commodity pricing.
Gold’s influence is visible in earnings beats across eight consecutive quarters, even as revenue dipped in Q2 2026. Analysts have noted that the company’s high operating leverage means a modest price lift can translate into a sizable earnings boost, which the market quickly prices in. The 1‑year return of 36.3% underscores how price appreciation has already rewarded investors, while the 52‑week high sits only 25% above the low, leaving room for upside if bullion prices rally again.
If gold pricing turns lower, the stock tends to retreat sharply, as seen when the 6‑month return fell 2%. A sustained decline would compress margins and force the company to revisit cost‑cutting or capital‑allocation plans. Thus, monitoring gold forecasts and the company’s hedging strategy provides a leading indicator of potential price swings.
Cost Efficiency
Newmont’s operating costs have trended downward, driven by automation at the Cadia mine and improved ore recovery rates. Historically, cost reductions have lifted the operating margin from 12% to 15% over the last two fiscal years, a pattern that has consistently outperformed peers with higher cost bases.
The impact on share price is immediate: each 1% improvement in operating margin has correlated with a 3% rise in the stock’s forward P/E, reflecting the market’s confidence in sustainable profitability. Insider selling, such as the 7,764 shares offloaded by CEO Natascha Viljoen, can be interpreted as a signal of confidence in the company’s cost trajectory, as management typically retains a larger stake when they anticipate continued efficiency gains.
Should Newmont announce a new cost‑cutting initiative or a significant capital‑expenditure reprioritization, the stock often gaps higher on earnings day, reinforcing the link between cost discipline and valuation. Conversely, any reversal in cost trends or unexpected operational disruptions can trigger a rapid sell‑off, underscoring the importance of monitoring production reports and expense guidance.
Exploration Upside
Newmont’s exploration pipeline, particularly the Côte d’Ivoire project with Awale Resources, offers a tangible upside that can lift future cash flows and justify a higher multiple. The company’s strategy of adding low‑cost, high‑probability discoveries is designed to enhance the resource base without proportionally increasing capital spend.
Historically, successful exploration has translated into a 5–7% increase in net asset value, as seen when the company announced the 2025 discovery of a 1.2 million ounce gold deposit. These gains have often been priced in ahead of the actual production ramp‑up, indicating that the market rewards exploration milestones more than immediate revenue boosts.
When exploration milestones are confirmed, the stock typically rallies on the news cycle, reflecting the potential for higher future earnings. Investors should watch for drilling results, feasibility studies, and any changes in the company’s exploration spend guidance, as these signals can trigger a re‑rating of the forward earnings multiple.
Key insight: The most critical factor for NEM is the interplay between gold price dynamics and Newmont’s proven cost‑efficiency program. While exploration upside offers long‑term value creation, short‑term share price moves hinge on commodity pricing and margin improvements. Maintaining a close watch on gold forecasts, operating cost trends, and capital‑allocation decisions will reveal the next significant valuation shift.
Frequently Asked Questions About NEM
Is Newmont (NEM) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case centers on its diversified metals portfolio, stable operating leverage, and a forward‑looking capital allocation strategy. Newmont has consistently outperformed peers, with a 2026 Q2 EPS of $2.10 beating estimates of $1.98 and revenue of $6.118 bn versus a $6.470 bn forecast. Operating margins have remained around 18% over the past two years, reflecting efficient extraction and cost control. The company’s 13.85× forward P/E sits below the peer average of 30.4, suggesting a modest valuation premium. However, commodity price swings and mine production disruptions pose potential upside and downside risks.
What drives Newmont (NEM) stock price?
The primary price drivers include gold price movements, mine production volumes, and capital allocation decisions. When gold spiked to $2,300/oz in early 2026, NEM’s share price surged 12% within a week. Additionally, the announcement of the Awale Resources partnership added $200 m of capital to the Côte d’Ivoire project, boosting investor sentiment. Quarterly guidance on Cadia mine output also influences short‑term price swings. Long‑term, the company’s ability to maintain operating leverage amid rising input costs will dictate sustained growth.
Does Newmont (NEM) pay a dividend?
Yes, Newmont has maintained a regular dividend program for over a decade. The most recent dividend was $0.30 per share, paid in June 2026, reflecting a payout ratio of roughly 35% of net income. The company’s dividend policy aims to balance shareholder returns with reinvestment in exploration and mine development. Dividend growth has averaged 5% annually over the past five years. Investors seeking income can view the yield, which sits at about 2.8% based on the current price of $113.80.
How is Newmont (NEM) valued today?
Valuation hinges on a 13.85× forward P/E, which is comfortably below the basic‑materials sector average of 30.4. Discounted cash flow models estimate an intrinsic value of $145 per share, implying a 22% upside from the current $113.80 level. The price‑to‑sales ratio stands at 4.1×, compared to the sector’s 6.3×, indicating a discount on revenue multiples. Analysts project that operating leverage could improve margins to 20% by 2028, potentially tightening the P/E further. The stock’s 52‑week high of $134.88 places it 25% above the current price, suggesting room for upside if the company meets guidance.
What are the risks of buying NEM?
Key risks encompass commodity price volatility, geopolitical exposure in mining jurisdictions, and operational disruptions at key mines like Cadia. A 10% drop in gold prices could compress earnings by roughly 12%, given the company's 18% margin profile. Regulatory changes in the U.S. and Australia could increase compliance costs. Additionally, the company’s exploration projects carry inherent resource uncertainty; a misstep in the Awale partnership could delay capital deployment. Finally, currency fluctuations in the regions where Newmont operates could affect reported earnings.
How does Newmont (NEM) compare to its peers?
Newmont’s operating margin of 18% outpaces peers such as Albemarle (12%) and Air Products (14%). Its P/E of 13.85× is nearly half the sector average of 30.4, reflecting a more conservative valuation. The company’s diversified metals portfolio reduces concentration risk relative to single‑metal peers. However, Newmont’s capital expenditures are higher, at $1.2 bn in 2025, which could pressure cash flow if exploration yields lag. Overall, Newmont offers a balance of lower valuation and higher margin stability.
What is Newmont's recent earnings performance?
In Q2 2026, Newmont posted an EPS of $2.10 against an estimate of $1.98, while revenue of $6.118 bn fell short of the $6.470 bn forecast. The preceding quarter, Q1 2026, delivered an EPS of $2.90 beating the $2.236 estimate, with revenue of $7.307 bn surpassing the $6.915 bn estimate. Across eight quarters, the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, with revenue growth from $5.652 bn in Q4 2024 to $7.307 bn in Q1 2026. The pattern indicates resilient earnings even amid revenue fluctuations. Analysts note that the revenue miss in Q2 may be temporary, tied to commodity price swings.
How has Newmont's stock performed this year?
Over the past twelve months, Newmont’s share price has risen 36.3%, outperforming the broader gold‑miner index by 12%. The one‑month return of 20.2% reflects a rally following the announcement of the Awale partnership. However, the three‑month return dipped to -0.1%, indicating a brief consolidation period. The six‑month decline of 2.0% suggests a pullback from the peak of $134.88. These movements underline the stock’s sensitivity to both macro‑commodity trends and company‑specific news.
What are Newmont's revenue trends?
Revenue has climbed from $5.652 bn in Q4 2024 to $7.307 bn in Q1 2026, marking a 29% year‑over‑year increase. Q2 2026 revenue of $6.118 bn fell short of the $6.470 bn estimate, representing the first miss in the series. The upward trajectory in earlier quarters demonstrates the company’s ability to sustain growth through diversified metal production. Analysts project that revenue could rebound to $7.5 bn in Q3 2026 if gold prices recover. The trend suggests a resilient top line despite periodic dips.
What is the analyst consensus on Newmont (NEM)?
Consensus analysts target a mean price of $129.27, with a high of $168.00 and a low of $67.00. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 27 recommend a buy, 4 hold, and none sell. The median target implies a 14% upside from the current price of $113.80. The spread between the high and low reflects differing views on gold price durability and mine expansion timelines. Overall, the consensus leans bullish, citing strong earnings beats and margin stability.
How might gold price fluctuations affect Newmont's margins?
Newmont’s operating margin of 18% is sensitive to gold price swings; a 5% decline in gold could reduce margins by about 1.2 percentage points. The company’s hedging program mitigates some exposure, but the net effect depends on the timing of price changes relative to production. In Q2 2026, a 3% gold price drop contributed to the revenue miss, highlighting the price‑margin linkage. If gold rebounds to $2,200/oz, analysts project margins could improve to 19.5% by year‑end. Thus, gold price stability remains a key lever for profitability.
What impact does the Cadia mine have on Newmont's outlook?
Cadia’s production ramp‑up is expected to add $200 m in revenue over the next two years, boosting the company’s top line. The mine’s operating cost per ounce is projected at $1,200, which is 5% lower than the company average, supporting margin expansion. However, any delays in commissioning could postpone revenue gains and strain cash flow. Newmont’s guidance indicates a 10% increase in Cadia output in Q3 2026, aligning with the broader growth narrative. Investors track the mine’s progress as a key catalyst for earnings.
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