NFLX·Netflix, Inc.
NFLX|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $0.82 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.3% |
| Q1'26 | $0.84 | $1.23 | +46.0% |
| Q4'25 | $0.56 | $0.56 | -0.5% |
| Q3'25 | $0.70 | $0.59 | -15.8% |
| Q2'25 | $0.70 | $0.72 | +2.2% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $13.1B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $12.8B | $12.6B | -2.2% |
| Q1'26 | $12.6B | $12.2B | -3.0% |
| Q4'25 | $12.2B | $12.1B | -1.3% |
| Q3'25 | - | $11.5B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $11.1B | - |
NFLX|Monthly Returns
Market Data
NFLX Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 343.19B
- P/E ratio
- 25.1
- Day range
- $78.17 – $82.87
- News sentiment
- 48/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $93.66 (+19.6%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 60 analysts
Momentum is working in NFLX's favour - the indicator set leans bullish rather than mixed. Positioning shifts among large allocators, not retail flow, set the tone for a name this size.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into NFLX?
At today's price, Netflix, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 25.0% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.23% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 24.6% a year, so the market is asking for 0.5 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis NFLX looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.
- Implied FCF growth
- 25.0%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 24.6%
- Growth gap
- +0.5 pts
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 9.23%
- Beta
- 0.93
Behaviour On Record
What NFLX's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 28.7% 35th pct
- Below its peak
- -38.5%
- vs 200-day average
- -5.3%
- Up days (1y)
- 47%
Netflix, Inc. is currently running 28.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NFLX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 35th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 34.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
NFLX is trading -38.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.3%, and the deepest was -72.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.
Price sits -5.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 23rd percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year NFLX closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.
On September specifically: over 13 years of records, NFLX finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.3% and an average of -1.1%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +9.2% on average, its weakest March at -2.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: NFLX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 45 of 3,269 sessions (1.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.1% and -6.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
Across the last 3 dated reports on file, NFLX moved an average of 1.9% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +2.3% and a largest of +3.3%.
All figures computed from 3,270 daily closes between 2013-09-05 and 2026-09-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NFLX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of NFLX's sector?
Netflix, Inc. sits in the Communication Services sector, currently ranked 4th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).
- Sector rank
- #4 of 11
- Sector state
- Weakening
- Sector rotation score
- 60
