NTRS·Northern Trust Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

21.4% 40th pct

Below its peak

-11.0%

vs 200-day average

+4.9%

Up days (1y)

57%

Northern Trust Corporation is currently running 21.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NTRS's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 40th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

NTRS is trading -11.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -20.0%, and the deepest was -43.1% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +4.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 50th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year NTRS closed higher on 57% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, NTRS finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.1% and an average of +2.7%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +7.4% on average, its weakest September at -2.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: NTRS has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 149 of 3,267 sessions (4.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.7% and -14.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, NTRS moved an average of 1.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.2% and a largest of -2.9%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NTRS's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.