NVR·NVR, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

21.9% 43rd pct

Below its peak

-39.8%

vs 200-day average

-10.8%

Up days (1y)

47%

NVR, Inc. is currently running 21.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NVR's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 43rd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

NVR is trading -39.8% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -17.8%, and the deepest was -46.1% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -10.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 13th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year NVR closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 6 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, NVR finished the month higher 5 of 13 times, with a median return of -2.2% and an average of -1.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.7% on average, its weakest March at -1.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: NVR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 105 of 3,267 sessions (3.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.0% and -9.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NVR's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.