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PEP·PepsiCo, Inc.

$129.64
-4.05 (-3.03%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$129.87+0.23 (+0.18%)
High
$133.70
Open
$132.01
Market Cap
177.09B
52W High
$171.48
Low
$129.50
P. Close
$129.64
P/E
16.95
52W Low
$129.55
Fwd P/E
14.46
DailyIQ Est.
$155.66
Inst. Ownership
39.6%
Short Interest
1.56%
Days to Cover
3.1
Technical Score (1D)
0
SELL
News Sentiment
50
MIXED
PepsiCo’s shares slid to a 52‑week low just 1.4 hours ago after investors weighed a sharp decline in North American demand against rising costs and ongoing restructuring. The drop follows analysts’ recent price‑target cuts that flag margin pressure and question the company’s ability to sustain growth, a sentiment echoed in a 20‑hour‑old report that unit sales have fallen for two consecutive years and that the firm may need to lower prices to spur demand. The same report warns that 11 % of U.S. adults on GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs could erode roughly $14 billion of PepsiCo’s snack‑brand value, with Lay’s most exposed at $6.8 billion, suggesting a potential shift in consumer spending away from snack categories. In the same week, PepsiCo announced the election of Johnson & Johnson CEO Joaquin Duato to its board, a governance move that adds strategic transformation expertise but is unlikely to alter short‑term financials. The combination of weaker demand, higher input costs, and brand‑value erosion signals that PepsiCo’s operating margin could compress further over the next 1–10 trading days, tightening earnings per share growth relative to peers. Meanwhile, the company’s diversified product mix and robust cash flow—generating over $56 billion in revenue—provide a cushion that may help it maintain its dividend in a rising‑rate environment, appealing to income‑focused investors. Watch for the next earnings release to see if PepsiCo adjusts pricing or launches new products to counter the GLP‑1‑driven demand shift, and monitor any further board appointments that could influence strategic direction.
Earnings Summary
PepsiCo, Inc. is a global food and beverage giant that produces and markets a diverse portfolio of snacks and beverages across seven key segments, including North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia, with iconic brands such as Lay’s, Doritos, Pepsi-Cola, and Gatorade. Operating in the consumer defensive sector, PepsiCo benefits from stable demand for its convenient foods and beverages, yet faces margin pressure from tighter beverage costs and softer snack demand. In the most recent quarters, PepsiCo’s Q4 2024 earnings surpassed estimates with an EPS of $1.96 versus $1.94 expected, while revenue of $27.78 billion matched the high‑end of analyst expectations; Q1 2025 saw a slight EPS miss at $1.48 versus $1.49 expected, with revenue of $17.92 billion. The company rebounded in Q2 2025 with an EPS of $2.12 beating the $2.03 estimate and revenue of $22.73 billion, and continued the trend in Q3 2025 with an EPS of $2.29 versus $2.26 expected and revenue of $23.94 billion. The pattern of earnings beats in three of the last four quarters underscores a resilient profitability trajectory, though revenue growth has slowed from $27.78 billion in Q4 2024 to $23.94 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a deceleration in top‑line expansion. Historically, PepsiCo has maintained a steady YoY revenue growth of roughly 3 % over the past five years, with EPS consistently beating consensus in the majority of reporting periods; however, the company has occasionally missed revenue estimates, such as in Q1 2025, indicating a mixed revenue‑EPS dynamic. Recent news highlights PepsiCo’s launch of dirty soda ready‑to‑drink variants, a move aimed at capturing TikTok‑driven consumer trends, but analysts note the incremental nature of this strategy and its limited short‑term earnings impact; the company also continues to face margin pressure in its core beverage business, with weaker Zero‑Sugar sales relative to competitors. Investors should watch for any signs that snack sales are stabilizing or that beverage margins improve, as these factors will directly influence earnings expectations and dividend sustainability, given PepsiCo’s focus on maintaining a robust dividend yield in a high‑inflation environment.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.51$1.73$1.95$2.18$2.40Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$2.30 - -
Q2'26$2.21$2.20-0.4%
Q1'26$2.26$1.61-28.7%
Q4'25$2.26$2.26+0.0%
Q3'25$2.26$2.29+1.3%
Q2'25$2.03$2.12+4.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$18.0B$21.2B$24.4B$27.6B$30.8BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$25.3B - -
Q2'26$24.2B$24.2B-0.1%
Q1'26$23.9B$19.4B-18.5%
Q4'25$29.3B$29.3B+0.3%
Q3'25 - $23.9B -
Q2'25 - $22.7B -

Market Data

PEP Stock Snapshot

SELL0/100
$129.87+$0.23 (0.2%)
Market cap
177.09B
P/E ratio
16.9
Day range
$129.50 – $133.70
News sentiment
50/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$155.00 (+19.4%)
Consensus
Hold · 31 analysts
52-week range+0.2% off low · -24.3% from high
$129.55$171.48
Price $129.87 DailyIQ Est. $155.66

The chart on PEP has not stabilised: price is near its 52-week low and the trend is still down. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Consumer Defensive tend to move together on rotation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into PEP?

FAIR

At today's price, PepsiCo, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 1.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.00% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 2.3% a year, so the market is asking for 0.5 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis PEP looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth
1.8%
Historical FCF CAGR
2.3%
Growth gap
-0.5 pts
Verdict
FAIR
Discount rate (WACC)
6.00%
Beta
0.39

Behaviour On Record

What PEP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
15.3% 43rd pct
Below its peak
-33.8%
vs 200-day average
-12.6%
Up days (1y)
45%

PepsiCo, Inc. is currently running 15.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PEP's own 9 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 43rd percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 16.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PEP is trading -33.8% below its running peak. Across 8 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -17.6%, and the deepest was -29.2% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -12.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 4th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year PEP closed higher on 45% of sessions, and it is currently 8 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 9 years of records, PEP finished the month higher 1 of 9 times, with a median return of -4.3% and an average of -3.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +2.7% on average, its weakest September at -3.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PEP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 13 of 2,196 sessions (0.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +4.4% and -7.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, PEP moved an average of 1.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.4% and a largest of +2.0%.

All figures computed from 2,197 daily closes between 2017-12-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PEP's own 9-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of PEP's sector?

PepsiCo, Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for PEP?

CallsPuts

For PepsiCo, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 1.38), with at-the-money implied volatility around 21.1%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±2.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $129.26–$136.50.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
1.38
ATM implied volatility
21.1%
Total open interest
11,551
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±2.7% ($129.26–$136.50)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PEP?

Barclays most recently reiterated its rating on PepsiCo, Inc. to Equal-Weight on Jul 21, 2026 with a price target of $142 (from $138). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
BarclaysEqual-Weight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
-1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jul 21, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$138 → $142
Jul 10, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$144 → $138
Jul 10, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$162 → $152
Jul 10, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$150 → $145
Jul 10, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$180 → $160
Jul 10, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$163 → $161
Jul 10, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$150 → $140
Jul 10, 2026CitigroupDowngradeBuy → Neutral$170 → $145
Jul 8, 2026BNP ParibasMaintainedOutperform$195 → $183
Jul 2, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$186 → $172
Jul 2, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$158 → $144
Jul 1, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$178 → $170

PEP Competitive Positioning

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is tracked alongside these names in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.