PHM·PulteGroup, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

25.6% 32nd pct

Below its peak

-23.6%

vs 200-day average

-8.6%

Up days (1y)

47%

PulteGroup, Inc. is currently running 25.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PHM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 32nd percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 30.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PHM is trading -23.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.7%, and the deepest was -61.8% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -8.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 15th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year PHM closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, PHM finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.5% and an average of -0.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +7.0% on average, its weakest September at -3.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PHM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 205 of 3,267 sessions (6.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.5% and -6.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, PHM moved an average of 1.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.9% and a largest of -2.0%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PHM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.