PHM·PulteGroup, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

26.0% 34th pct

Below its peak

-25.2%

vs 200-day average

-10.4%

Up days (1y)

48%

PulteGroup, Inc. is currently running 26.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PHM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 34th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 30.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PHM is trading -25.2% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.7%, and the deepest was -61.8% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -10.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 13th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year PHM closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, PHM finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.5% and an average of +0.1%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +7.0% on average, its weakest September at -3.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PHM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 205 of 3,267 sessions (6.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.5% and -6.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, PHM moved an average of 1.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.9% and a largest of -2.0%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PHM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.