PYPL·PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

24.7% 23rd pct

Below its peak

-81.8%

vs 200-day average

+12.4%

Up days (1y)

51%

PayPal Holdings, Inc. is currently running 24.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PYPL's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 23rd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 31.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PYPL is trading -81.8% below its running peak. Across 10 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -25.2%, and the deepest was -65.3% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +12.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 70th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year PYPL closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 12 years of records, PYPL finished the month higher 7 of 12 times, with a median return of +1.6% and an average of +0.6%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +7.2% on average, its weakest February at -4.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PYPL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 73 of 2,836 sessions (2.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.9% and -13.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,837 daily closes between 2015-07-06 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PYPL's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.