USB·U.S. Bancorp

Realized volatility (21d)

18.1% 35th pct

Below its peak

-13.1%

vs 200-day average

-1.6%

Up days (1y)

53%

U.S. Bancorp is currently running 18.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against USB's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 35th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 20.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

USB is trading -13.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -14.6%, and the deepest was -50.1% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -1.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 32nd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year USB closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, USB finished the month higher 9 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.2% and an average of +2.6%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.8% on average, its weakest March at -5.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: USB has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 87 of 3,268 sessions (2.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.2% and -7.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, USB moved an average of 2.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +2.1% and a largest of +3.0%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against USB's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.