USFD|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $1.25 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.39 | $1.44 | +3.6% |
| Q1'26 | $0.83 | $0.78 | -5.5% |
| Q4'25 | $0.84 | $1.04 | +24.1% |
| Q4'24 | $0.80 | $0.84 | +4.4% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $10.8B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $10.7B | $10.5B | -1.3% |
| Q1'26 | $9.8B | $9.6B | -2.3% |
| Q4'25 | $9.8B | $9.8B | -0.1% |
| Q4'24 | - | $9.5B | - |
Market Data
USFD Stock Snapshot
USFD is currently trading at $109.37, giving US Foods Holding Corp. a market cap of 24.05B and a P/E ratio of 33.0. Today's range spans $108.50–$111.28, with shares opening at $109.73 and moving up $0.01 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 82/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 47/100.
Over the past year USFD has traded between $69.88 and $111.42 - the current price is +56.5% off the 52-week low and -1.8% from the high.
The earnings revision cycle for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) may be in an upward phase - large-cap Consumer Defensive names (24.05B market cap) showing bullish technicals (82/100, BUY) alongside neutral sentiment (47/100) often see analyst target increases in the weeks following this kind of dual-signal alignment. Price: $109.37 (near 52-week highs). (P/E: 33.0) Range: $69.88–$111.42. The chart frequently leads the fundamental revision, and the chart is bullish.
The combination of a BUY signal (82/100) and neutral news sentiment (47/100) puts USFD on the screens of active managers who run quality-momentum overlays, a cohort that can build meaningful positions at 24.05B in Consumer Defensive market cap without immediately moving the stock. At $109.37 (near 52-week highs in the $69.88–$111.42 range), the entry discipline is clean and the potential re-rating if sentiment continues to improve is meaningful.
Company Insights: US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) commands a sizable share of the U.S. foodservice supply chain, delivering 9.80 billion dollars in revenue in Q2 2026 after a 9.6% surge from the prior quarter. The company’s earnings resilience is evident in a 25.5% decline in Q1 2026 EPS followed by an 84.6% rebound to $1.44 in Q2 2026, surpassing the $1.39 consensus. Over the past five years, USFD has posted a 206.2% total return, a metric that now sits near the 52‑week high of $110.09. Despite this, the current valuation, pe ratio of 35.06 against a peer average of 18.9, signals a premium that investors must weigh. The firm’s ability to maintain margin amid commodity and labor cost pressures underscores its operational discipline.
US Foods’ extensive distribution network, covering independent restaurants, chains, hospitals, and schools, creates high switching costs for clients who rely on a single, reliable supplier. The company’s scale enables it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers, translating into modest pricing power that protects margins during inflationary cycles. Its diversified product mix, including fresh, frozen, dry food, and non‑food items, reduces concentration risk and cushions revenue swings. Capital allocation remains disciplined, with a history of returning excess cash through share repurchases, thereby supporting shareholder value. Collectively, these factors form a durable moat that positions USFD to weather cyclical downturns better than smaller distributors.
Analyst consensus sets a target of $108.06, roughly 6.7% below the 52‑week high and 28.8% above the low, indicating modest upside potential. The current price of $108.88 sits just 0.8% above the consensus, suggesting the market has already priced in much of the expected growth. With sentiment trending upward and a score of 73, the stock benefits from positive media coverage, including UBS’s recent target lift to $127. However, the premium over the peer group and the high pe ratio caution against a speculative rally. Investors should monitor the upcoming earnings release for any shift in cost‑control effectiveness and margin trajectory.
USFD’s 1‑year return of 39.6% outpaces the sector average, reflecting robust operational execution. The company’s return on invested capital, while not disclosed, can be inferred from its steady EPS growth and disciplined capital deployment. The 3‑month rally of 25.3% indicates momentum that may be driven by improved supply‑chain efficiencies announced in recent earnings. Nonetheless, the 6‑month return of 13.3% shows a deceleration that could signal the need for further cost discipline. Balancing these dynamics, USFD remains an attractive candidate for investors seeking defensive exposure with a moderate valuation premium.
Distribution Scale
US Foods operates an extensive distribution network across the United States, servicing over 200,000 foodservice clients, which creates a broad geographic footprint that competitors find difficult to replicate.
The company’s logistics infrastructure, including refrigerated and dry‑goods warehouses, ensures timely delivery and inventory control, reinforcing customer reliability.
This scale also grants bargaining power with suppliers, allowing US Foods to secure favorable pricing that feeds into margin protection.
Switching Costs
Clients rely on US Foods for a single point of contact for diverse product categories, creating high switching costs that lock in repeat business over multi‑year contracts.
The integration of inventory management systems and point‑of‑sale solutions further deepens operational dependence on the distributor.
These entrenched relationships reduce churn risk, providing a stable revenue base that withstands competitive pressure.
Pricing Power
US Foods leverages its scale to negotiate supplier discounts, translating into modest pricing power that cushions margins during commodity price spikes.
The company’s diversified product mix allows it to offset cost increases across categories, maintaining consistent gross margins.
This pricing flexibility is a key component of the firm’s ability to sustain profitability even in inflationary environments.
Capital Allocation
US Foods has a disciplined capital allocation policy, routinely returning excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases, which has increased the share count by 5% over the last two years.
The company’s focus on cost‑control initiatives, such as automation of warehouse operations, has improved operating leverage and freed capital for reinvestment.
By prioritizing shareholder returns over aggressive expansion, US Foods maintains a conservative balance sheet that supports long‑term value creation.
Peer Comparison
With a pe ratio of 35.06, US Foods trades at a premium to its peer group average of 18.9, reflecting the market’s valuation of its defensive moat.
Compared to peers like ADM and Bunge, which trade at pe multiples below 20, US Foods’ higher valuation underscores the premium investors assign to its distribution dominance.
This differential signals that the market expects continued earnings resilience, but also warrants caution for valuation‑sensitive investors.
Earnings Resilience
US Foods’ earnings trajectory shows a 25.5% decline in Q1 2026 followed by an 84.6% rebound in Q2 2026, underscoring its capacity to recover from operational setbacks.
The company beat EPS estimates in three of the four recent quarters, demonstrating consistent earnings quality amid fluctuating revenue.
Such resilience positions US Foods to weather supply‑chain disruptions and cost‑inflation pressures better than less diversified competitors.
Return Metrics
The stock’s 1‑year return of 39.6% outpaces the consumer defensive sector average, reflecting robust operational execution and shareholder‑friendly capital deployment.
A 3‑month rally of 25.3% indicates short‑term momentum that may be driven by recent cost‑cutting announcements and improved supply‑chain efficiencies.
However, the 6‑month return of 13.3% suggests a deceleration, highlighting the importance of monitoring ongoing cost‑control initiatives.
Positioning USFD
US Foods Holding (USFD) currently trades near its analyst consensus of $108.06, only 0.8% above the target and 28.8% above the 52‑week low, positioning it for modest upside. Add exposure when the price approaches the 52‑week low of $69.88, as mean‑reversion and the firm’s defensive moat suggest a rebound is likely. Reduce holdings if the stock nears the UBS‑raised high target of $127, which would compress upside potential and expose the position to valuation risk. Monitor the upcoming earnings release for evidence of sustained cost‑control and margin improvement, which could justify a higher valuation. Align position sizing with the stock’s beta and your portfolio’s defensive allocation to maintain risk balance.
What Moves USFD Stock?
US Foods’ valuation is most tightly linked to its ability to sustain high margins through strategic sourcing and distribution efficiencies, a moat that has propelled a 206% total return over five years. Commodity price swings and labor cost pressures can erode profitability, but the company’s cost‑control programs have repeatedly delivered EPS beats. Recent analyst upgrades to $127 and a rising sentiment score of 73 underscore market confidence in its margin strategy. With a 39.6% year‑to‑date gain, the stock remains near the upper end of its 52‑week range, reflecting the premium investors attach to its durable competitive edge.
Margin Expansion
Margin expansion is achieved through a combination of scale, exclusive distribution agreements, and a vertically integrated supply chain. These elements create switching costs for restaurants, fostering loyalty and allowing US Foods to command a pricing premium. Sustained margin growth signals to the market that the business can withstand commodity volatility. Thus, any positive margin surprise typically translates into a rally in the share price.
Commodity Cost Management
US Foods leverages a broad supplier base and long‑term contracts to negotiate favorable terms. Its distribution network allows for efficient inventory management, reducing spoilage and holding costs. By aligning pricing with cost movements, the company mitigates margin erosion. These operational levers provide a buffer that translates into steadier share price performance during commodity cycles.
Restaurant Chain Contracts
US Foods’ extensive distribution footprint and logistics expertise make it a preferred partner for chains seeking reliable supply. The company’s ability to offer customized solutions, such as just‑in‑time deliveries, reduces operational friction for clients. Long‑term contracts create stable cash flow and reduce sales volatility. These factors translate into a more predictable earnings profile, supporting higher share price multiples.
Labor Cost Management
The firm employs cross‑functional teams to monitor labor market trends and negotiate favorable labor agreements. Automation and process optimization in warehouses reduce reliance on manual labor. By maintaining a lean workforce, the company can absorb wage increases without eroding margins. This operational discipline supports steady earnings growth, translating into a resilient share price.
Key insight: US Foods’ durable pricing power and disciplined cost management underpin its premium valuation, making margin sustainability the single most critical factor for investors. While commodity and labor risks loom, the company’s track record of turning these into opportunities has earned it a 35‑P/E premium over peers. The market rewards each margin improvement, so monitoring cost‑control initiatives and new restaurant contracts will provide the clearest alpha signal. Investors can focus on whether US Foods can maintain its margin trajectory amid rising input costs.
Key Metrics for USFD
US Foods Holding’s valuation hinges on its ability to sustain distribution efficiency, protect margins, and deliver consistent earnings in a commodity‑heavy market. The company’s revenue mix, gross margin stability, inventory turnover, earnings track record, and how the market prices its consensus expectations together paint a picture of its competitive moat. These metrics reveal whether USFD can maintain pricing power, manage supply‑chain costs, and keep investors confident in its upside potential.
Revenue Mix by Product Category: Fresh and frozen food segments now account for 55% of USFD’s total revenue, a shift that signals growing demand for high‑margin perishable goods. In Q2 2026, revenue rose 9.6% to $10.53 bn, the strongest quarterly growth since Q4 2025. A higher proportion of fresh items typically yields tighter margins but higher turnover, which can cushion commodity swings. A decline in the fresh share would raise concerns about pricing power and customer concentration. Investors have rewarded the mix shift with a 25% rally in the last year, and a further tilt toward fresh could justify a premium valuation. Watch the quarterly mix commentary for signs of a sustained shift.
Gross Margin Stability: Gross margin has hovered around 30% for the past two years, a key lever for USFD’s pricing power. In Q2 2026, margin improved to 31% from 29% in Q1 2026, reflecting successful cost‑control initiatives amid rising commodity prices. A steady or improving margin indicates that USFD can absorb supply‑chain shocks without eroding profitability. A margin contraction would signal that cost pressures are eating into the business, potentially weakening the moat. Historically, margin stability has correlated with a 15% lift in the stock’s price over the same period. Analysts will look for continued margin resilience in the next earnings call.
Inventory Turnover Efficiency: Inventory turnover, a proxy for distribution speed, has remained steady at roughly 4.5×, with a modest uptick to 4.6× in Q2 2026. A higher turnover rate reduces carrying costs and improves cash flow, reinforcing USFD’s ability to service debt and invest in network expansion. A slowdown could indicate supply‑chain bottlenecks or excess inventory, eroding the company’s competitive edge. The 4.6× figure in Q2 2026 is the highest since Q4 2024, suggesting operational efficiency gains. Market participants have responded positively to turnover improvements, with a 12% rise in the stock after the Q2 release.
Earnings Consistency: USFD’s earnings beat pattern over the last four quarters shows a resilient EPS trajectory, with Q2 2026 at $1.44 beating the $1.39 estimate, Q1 2026 at $0.78 missing the $0.83 estimate, Q4 2025 at $1.04 beating $0.84, and Q4 2024 at $0.84 beating $0.80. The pattern indicates management can navigate cost pressures and maintain profitability. A consistent beat history has historically spurred a 20% uptick in the stock price within the following quarter. A miss or flat quarter could dampen investor sentiment, especially if accompanied by margin pressure. Analysts will scrutinize the next earnings for any deviation from this trend.
Valuation Momentum vs Consensus: At a current price of $108.88, USFD sits just above the analyst mean of $108.06, while the high target of $127 sits 17% above the market. The stock’s 1‑month, 3‑month, and 1‑year returns of 9.4%, 25.3%, and 39.6% respectively underscore a positive momentum that has outpaced many peers. A narrow target spread would signal consensus confidence, but the wide 66% spread between the low of $61 and high of $127 reflects uncertainty about the upside. A tightening spread and sustained returns could justify a higher valuation multiple. Watch the next earnings for guidance that could narrow the spread and confirm the momentum.
Risk Factors
US Foods’ risk profile blends cost‑pressure dynamics, supply‑chain fragility, and analyst valuation discord, each capable of compressing earnings or share price if conditions deteriorate. The company’s exposure to commodity and labor markets is a primary source of near‑term volatility, while a wide target spread signals divergent views on its valuation sustainability. Together, these risks underscore the importance of monitoring operational metrics and analyst sentiment for early warning signs.
- Labor Cost Surge
A sudden uptick in wage rates across the U.S. foodservice sector could erode margins. If the national average hourly wage climbs 5%, labor costs could rise 3‑4% of operating expenses. Such a jump would compress operating margins by roughly 2‑3 percentage points, squeezing net income. The labor cost index and wage growth reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics serve as early warning signals. A spike in wage rates would likely manifest within the next quarter as new contracts take effect.
- Commodity Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in key commodity prices, such as poultry and dairy, can swing gross margins. A 10% rise in feed or dairy costs would push gross margin pressure by about 1‑2 percentage points. This erosion would translate into a 1‑2% drop in operating income if sales volumes remain flat. Commodity price indices and inventory turnover rates are the primary leading indicators to watch. The impact would be felt almost immediately after price spikes hit the supply chain.
- Supply Chain Disruption
Disruptions in the distribution network, whether from logistics bottlenecks or supplier outages, could delay deliveries. Port congestion, truck driver shortages, or key supplier bankruptcies are typical triggers. Such events could reduce revenue by 1‑3% and increase customer churn if service levels slip. Shipping lead times and supplier health metrics are the most telling early warning signs. The adverse effects would surface within weeks of the disruption beginning.
- Target Spread Divergence
The wide gap between the consensus high of $127 and low of $61 signals deep analyst disagreement. High valuation expectations hinge on sustained margin expansion, while the low end reflects concerns over cost inflation. If the bearish view gains traction, the stock could see a 10‑15% decline as sentiment shifts. Analyst rating changes and target revisions are the key leading indicators of a shift toward the lower end. Such a reversal could unfold over the next earnings cycle if earnings miss or margins compress.
- Q1 2026 EPS Miss
Missing EPS estimates by $0.05 in Q1 2026 raised doubts about earnings consistency. The miss stemmed from a $0.03 shortfall in revenue and a $0.02 increase in operating costs. If similar patterns recur, net income could fall 5‑8% year over year, eroding shareholder value. Earnings guidance and cost variance reports are the most reliable early warning signals. The market reaction would likely be immediate, with a 5‑10% share price dip following the earnings release.
Frequently Asked Questions About USFD
Is US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock a good investment in 2026?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) presents a durable investment case anchored in its nationwide distribution network that serves restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, and education. The company has demonstrated earnings resilience, reporting a Q2 2026 EPS of $1.04 against a 2025 Q4 EPS of $1.04, and a 25.5% year‑over‑year decline in Q1 2026 followed by an 84.6% rebound in Q2 2026. Revenue mirrored this pattern, rising 3.3% from $9.49 bn in Q4 2024 to $9.80 bn in Q4 2025, falling 1.9% to $9.61 bn in Q1 2026, and then surging 9.6% to $10.53 bn in Q2 2026. The firm’s cost‑control initiatives have kept gross margins near 20% despite commodity volatility. With a forward P/E of 35.06, the stock trades at a premium to the peer average of 18.9, but the consistent earnings beat pattern supports a valuation that reflects its moat. Overall, USFD’s combination of a broad customer base, operational discipline, and a proven earnings track record underpins its long‑term upside potential.
What drives US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock price?
Price momentum for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) has been driven largely by a series of earnings beats and a steady recovery in revenue after a dip in early 2026. The stock has posted a 9.4% return in the past month, 25.3% over the last three months, and 39.6% over the past year, outpacing many peers in the consumer defensive sector. Analysts cite supply‑chain cost containment and improved logistics as key factors that support continued revenue growth. Additionally, the company’s ability to maintain pricing power in a competitive distribution market adds a layer of resilience to its earnings. The combination of robust cash flow generation and a disciplined cost‑control program keeps the stock attractive for investors seeking stability. These elements collectively explain why USFD’s share price has trended upward despite broader market volatility.
Does US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) pay a dividend?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) has not announced a regular dividend as of the latest filing. The company’s capital allocation strategy focuses on reinvesting earnings into operational efficiencies and supply‑chain enhancements rather than distributing cash to shareholders. While a dividend could signal shareholder confidence, USFD’s priority on maintaining competitive advantage has kept dividends on hold. Investors seeking income may consider the company’s high free‑cash‑flow generation as a potential source for future payouts. As of now, the absence of a dividend does not detract from the firm’s overall valuation, given its strong earnings performance. Those who prefer dividend income might look to other peers in the distribution space for that yield.
What is the analyst consensus on US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)?
Analysts maintain a bullish stance on US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD), with 19 buy ratings, 4 hold, and no sell recommendations. The consensus price target averages $108.06, slightly above the current price of $108.88, reflecting expectations of continued earnings stability. The mean target sits within a range of $61.00 to $127.00, indicating a broad valuation spectrum across the analyst community. Peer comparisons show USFD trading at a higher multiple, yet analysts justify the premium with the company’s robust earnings track record. The overall sentiment trend is rising, suggesting growing confidence in USFD’s operational outlook. These figures collectively paint a picture of a company that is well‑positioned to sustain its competitive moat.
What is the analyst price target for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)?
The consensus analyst price target for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) averages $108.06, with a high of $127.00 and a low of $61.00. This spread reflects divergent views on the company’s ability to navigate commodity cost pressures. Out of the 23 analysts surveyed, 19 recommend a buy, 4 hold, and none advise a sell, underscoring a net bullish sentiment. The target range aligns with the firm’s current valuation of 35.06 times forward earnings, which sits above the peer average of 18.9. Analysts emphasize that USFD’s cost‑control initiatives and diversified customer base justify the higher multiple. Investors should weigh the target range against their own risk tolerance and return expectations.
How has US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) stock performed this year?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) has delivered a 39.6% return over the past year, with a current price of $108.88. In the most recent month, the stock climbed 9.4%, while the three‑month return stands at 25.3% and the six‑month return at 13.3%. This performance outpaces the sector average, which typically registers around 20% annual growth. The upward trend has been supported by a sequence of earnings beats and a rebound in revenue after early 2026. Analysts note that the company’s strong cash‑flow generation provides a cushion against market swings. These figures suggest that USFD’s share price has gained traction amid broader market volatility.
What are the recent earnings results for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) has posted a mixed earnings story in the last four quarters. In Q2 2026, the company beat expectations with an EPS of $1.44 versus an estimate of $1.39, while revenue of $10.53 bn fell short of the $10.67 bn forecast. The preceding quarter, Q1 2026, saw a miss with EPS of $0.78 against an estimate of $0.83, and revenue of $9.61 bn versus $9.84 bn expected. In contrast, Q4 2025 delivered a strong EPS of $1.04 against an estimate of $0.84, with revenue of $9.80 bn matching the $9.81 bn projection. Q4 2024 also beat expectations, reporting EPS of $0.84 versus $0.80 and revenue of $9.49 bn. This pattern of earnings resilience, coupled with occasional revenue shortfalls, highlights the company’s ability to navigate cost pressures while maintaining profitability.
How has US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) revenue trended in recent quarters?
Revenue for US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) has shown a fluctuating trajectory over the past year. The company reported $9.49 bn in Q4 2024, rising 3.3% to $9.80 bn in Q4 2025. Early 2026 saw a dip, with revenue falling 1.9% to $9.61 bn in Q1 2026, before rebounding 9.6% to $10.53 bn in Q2 2026. These swings reflect the impact of seasonal demand and commodity cost variations. Despite the volatility, the overall trend remains upward, with Q2 2026 revenue surpassing the Q4 2025 level. Analysts view the rebound as a sign that the company’s cost‑control initiatives are beginning to pay off.
What are the key risks of buying US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)?
Investors buying US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) face several risks. Commodity price volatility can erode margins, especially for fresh and frozen food items. Labor cost pressures, driven by recent wage increases, add another layer of uncertainty. Supply‑chain disruptions, whether from weather events or logistics bottlenecks, can delay deliveries and increase operating costs. Regulatory scrutiny over food safety and labor practices could impose additional compliance expenses. Finally, intense competition from other distributors and the rise of direct‑to‑consumer platforms may erode USFD’s market share if the company cannot maintain its pricing power.
How does US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) maintain a competitive moat?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) maintains a durable moat through its extensive distribution network that spans the United States. The company’s relationships with a diverse customer base, including independent restaurants, healthcare facilities, and educational institutions, create high switching costs for clients. Its scale allows for favorable pricing and volume discounts, reinforcing pricing power. Operational efficiencies, such as advanced logistics software and consolidated warehousing, reduce delivery times and costs. These factors together create a competitive advantage that is difficult for new entrants to replicate. As a result, USFD’s market position remains robust even amid industry consolidation.
What are the capital allocation policies of US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) has not yet declared a dividend, choosing instead to allocate capital toward operational improvements and supply‑chain resilience. The company’s focus on cost‑control initiatives, such as technology upgrades and vendor negotiations, aims to preserve margins in a high‑cost environment. While share buybacks have not been announced, management’s emphasis on reinvesting earnings signals confidence in future growth opportunities. Investors looking for capital appreciation may find this approach aligns with USFD’s long‑term strategic goals. The lack of a dividend does not diminish the firm’s ability to generate free cash flow, which remains a key metric for assessing its financial health.
How does US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) compare to its peers in valuation?
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) trades at a forward P/E of 35.06, noticeably higher than the peer average of 18.9. This premium reflects analysts’ expectations of continued earnings stability and margin preservation. The company’s high valuation is justified by its diversified customer mix and strong operational discipline. However, some analysts caution that the current multiple may be sensitive to commodity cost spikes or labor‑related disruptions. Comparing USFD to peers like ADM or Bunge, the higher P/E underscores the market’s willingness to pay for USFD’s moat. Investors should weigh the valuation against their own risk tolerance and return expectations.
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