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XOM·Exxon Mobil Corporation

$163.18
-0.09 (-0.06%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$163.28+0.10 (+0.06%)
High
$163.62
Open
$162.50
Market Cap
682.54B
52W High
$176.41
Low
$161.31
P. Close
$163.18
P/E
20.84
52W Low
$109.80
Fwd P/E
15.16
DailyIQ Est.
$173.15
Inst. Ownership
37.3%
Short Interest
0.95%
Days to Cover
2.7
Technical Score (1D)
68
BUY
News Sentiment
56
BULLISH
The CFO’s warning that the current oil supply shock may conceal a deeper refining squeeze signals a potential tightening of margins if supply disruptions persist, raising uncertainty about XOM’s earnings over the next week. This risk could compress operating throughput and squeeze profitability, so traders should watch for subsequent supply chain updates or refinery throughput reports that confirm or alleviate the tightening. Meanwhile, XOM is in early talks to re‑enter Venezuela, a move that could diversify its upstream portfolio and provide access to heavy crude that aligns with U.S. refinery demand. If the talks progress, the company could secure new production assets, potentially offsetting the refining squeeze and improving long‑term cash flows. The company’s engagement in U.S.–Vietnam trade agreements also expands its Southeast Asian presence, offering a modest upside to geographic diversification. However, geopolitical and regulatory hurdles remain significant, so any progress will depend on approvals and U.S. policy shifts. In the medium term, XOM’s outlook projects 2050 emissions far exceeding global climate targets, highlighting a long‑term regulatory risk that could influence future policy and investor sentiment. The company is expected to embed low‑carbon initiatives into its 2027 guidance, signaling a strategic shift toward carbon capture and other green technologies that could improve future margins. Watch for any guidance updates or policy announcements that address emissions and low‑carbon commitments, as these could shape the company’s valuation trajectory.
Earnings Summary
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy leader focused on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, operating through upstream, energy products, chemical products, and specialty products segments, and is actively pursuing lower‑emission initiatives such as carbon capture and sustainable aviation fuel. In the last two quarters, Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, the company posted EPS of $1.88 and $1.71, respectively, both beating analyst estimates of $1.82466 and $1.7016, while revenue remained flat at $85.3 billion and $82.3 billion, respectively, indicating a slight decline from the $83.1 billion in Q1 2025 and $81.5 billion in Q2 2025; the company has consistently beat estimates in the last four quarters, with EPS growth accelerating from $1.64 in Q2 2025 to $1.88 in Q3 2025. Historically, Exxon has maintained a steady YoY revenue growth trajectory, with revenue increasing from $81.5 billion in Q2 2025 to $85.3 billion in Q3 2025, and EPS has shown a similar upward trend, though the Q1 2026 EPS of $1.16 fell short of the $3.31 estimate, reflecting a sharp earnings dip amid a broader market downturn; nevertheless, the company’s dividend growth streak of 43 years remains intact, underscoring resilience in the face of earnings volatility. Recent news highlights the pause of a $5.06 billion environmental fine in Kazakhstan, which removes an immediate liability of roughly $851 million and preserves near‑term cash flow, and the launch of cash tender offers for Pioneer Natural Resources’ senior notes, which could tighten the balance sheet and modestly lift EPS if uptake is high; additionally, the operatorship of the Papua LNG project may accelerate LNG development and enhance long‑term cash flows. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to confirm whether the high oil‑price environment and the war premium continue to support the upgraded price target, monitor any new arbitration rulings or settlement talks over Kashagan, and track participation in the debt tender offers, as these factors will be key to assessing Exxon’s near‑term performance.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.79$1.60$2.41$3.22$4.03Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$3.66 - -
Q1'26$3.31$1.16-65.0%
Q4'25$1.70$1.71+0.5%
Q3'25$1.82$1.88+3.0%
Q2'25$1.56$1.64+4.9%
Q1'25$1.74$1.76+1.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$78.8B$84.7B$90.6B$96.5B$102.3BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$99.6B - -
Q1'26$95.4B$85.1B-10.8%
Q4'25$82.2B$82.3B+0.1%
Q3'25 - $85.3B -
Q2'25 - $81.5B -
Q1'25 - $83.1B -

Market Data

XOM Stock Snapshot

BUY68/100
$163.28+$0.10 (0.1%)
Market cap
682.54B
P/E ratio
20.8
Day range
$161.31 – $163.62
News sentiment
56/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$170.91 (+4.7%)
Consensus
Hold · 32 analysts
52-week range+48.7% off low · -7.4% from high
$109.80$176.41
Price $163.28 DailyIQ Est. $173.15

Momentum is working in XOM's favour - the indicator set leans bullish rather than mixed. Coverage is deep enough that new information gets priced quickly, so surprises tend to be macro rather than fundamental.

Behaviour On Record

What XOM's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
25.2% 65th pct
Below its peak
-5.0%
vs 200-day average
+11.5%
Up days (1y)
57%

Exxon Mobil Corporation is currently running 25.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against XOM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 65th percentile a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 20.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

XOM is trading -5.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -18.5%, and the deepest was -54.9% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +11.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 80th percentile a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year XOM closed higher on 57% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, XOM finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.3% and an average of +0.5%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +2.3% on average, its weakest May at -1.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: XOM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 51 of 3,268 sessions (1.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.3% and -9.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against XOM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of XOM's sector?

Exxon Mobil Corporation sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 2nd of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#2 of 11
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
80

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for XOM?

CallsPuts

For Exxon Mobil Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.44), with at-the-money implied volatility around 28.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.8% move by that expiry — a range of about $156.78–$169.30.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.44
ATM implied volatility
28.8%
Total open interest
21,532
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±3.8% ($156.78–$169.30)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on XOM?

Piper Sandler most recently reiterated its rating on Exxon Mobil Corporation to Neutral on Sep 3, 2026 with a price target of $185 (from $158). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 1 downgrade, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Piper SandlerNeutral
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 3, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$158 → $185
Aug 19, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$168 → $177
Aug 17, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$182 → $177
Aug 7, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$155 → $168
Aug 4, 2026Freedom BrokerUpgradeSell → Hold$130 → $142
Jul 28, 2026B of A SecuritiesDowngradeBuy → Neutral$154 → $158
Jul 9, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$175 → $170
Jul 2, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$172 → $155
Jun 29, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$171 → $168
Jun 16, 2026B of A SecuritiesUpgradeNeutral → Buy$154
May 27, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$159 → $175
May 26, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$163 → $182

XOM Competitive Positioning

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas Integrated on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.