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YUMC·Yum China Holdings, Inc.

$41.77
-1.04 (-2.43%)
High
$42.61
Open
$42.41
Market Cap
14.49B
52W High
$58.39
Low
$41.76
P. Close
$41.77
P/E
14.86
52W Low
$40.10
Fwd P/E
12.67
DailyIQ Est.
$64.77
Inst. Ownership
1.3%
Short Interest
1.49%
Days to Cover
3.1
Technical Score (1D)
23
SELL
News Sentiment
54
MIXED
Analysts have just lifted Yum China’s earnings estimates, a move that comes after the stock’s recent heavy selling pushed it into oversold territory; the upgrade suggests the market may now view the company’s long‑term prospects more favorably despite short‑term volatility. The technical weakness—RSI below 30—indicates that the price may still be depressed, but the upgraded guidance could shift the risk‑reward balance toward upside in the next 1–10 trading days. The earnings upgrade is driven by expectations that Yum China’s expansion into lower‑tier cities will accelerate revenue growth, a strategy that has been under scrutiny after an 11% decline over the past month. If the company can execute on this plan, the upside potential could materialize, providing a catalyst for a trend reversal. Traders should monitor the company’s next earnings release for any confirmation of the upgraded forecasts and watch for any signs of improved execution in those cities. Additionally, keep an eye on broader consumer‑spending trends in China, as weaker retail demand could temper the upside. Finally, watch for any changes in the macro environment—such as shifts in China’s retail regulations or consumer confidence—that could impact Yum China’s growth trajectory.
Earnings Summary
Yum China Holdings is a leading restaurant operator in China, managing KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and other brands while leveraging online delivery services. In the last two quarters, EPS declined from $0.87 in Q1 2026 to $0.70 in Q2 2026, and revenue fell from $3.27 billion to $3.14 billion, indicating a 4% YoY revenue decline and a 19% EPS contraction; the company beat estimates in Q1 2026 but missed in Q2 2026. Historically, Yum China has shown a modest revenue growth trajectory, with EPS hovering near estimates, but recent earnings have been volatile, reflecting challenges in cost control and expansion execution. Recent analyst upgrades and a 28% undervaluation gap are tied to the rapid rollout of Pizza Hut Burger Bars and renewed franchise agreements, which could lift revenue and margins if new outlets hit breakeven quickly; however, execution risk remains high. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to gauge the profitability of new Burger Bars, the pace of franchise fee collection under renewed licenses, and any changes to the bridge loan covenant structure, as these factors will determine whether the company sustains its earnings momentum.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.67$0.74$0.80$0.87$0.94Q1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.91 - -
Q2'26$0.90$0.70-22.2%
Q1'26$0.87$0.87-0.4%
Q1'25$0.78$0.77-1.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.9B$3.1B$3.3B$3.5B$3.7BQ1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.6B - -
Q2'26$3.1B$3.1B+0.7%
Q1'26$3.3B$3.3B-0.9%
Q1'25 - $3.0B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

YUMC Stock Snapshot

SELL23/100
$41.77−$1.04 (2.4%)
Market cap
14.49B
P/E ratio
14.9
Day range
$41.76 – $42.61
News sentiment
54/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$61.91 (+48.2%)
Consensus
Buy · 31 analysts
52-week range+4.2% off low · -28.5% from high
$40.10$58.39
Price $41.77 DailyIQ Est. $64.77

Yum China Holdings, Inc. is trading near its 52-week low with momentum still pointing lower. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into YUMC?

CHEAP

At today's price, Yum China Holdings, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 2.4% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.34% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 8.3% a year, so the market is asking for 5.9 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis YUMC looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
2.4%
Historical FCF CAGR
8.3%
Growth gap
-5.9 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
8.34%
Beta
0.68

Behaviour On Record

What YUMC's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
28.4% 44th pct
Below its peak
-39.9%
vs 200-day average
-12.0%
Up days (1y)
44%

Yum China Holdings, Inc. is currently running 28.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against YUMC's own 10 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 44th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 29.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

YUMC is trading -39.9% below its running peak. Across 9 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -32.2%, and the deepest was -38.3% in 2023. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -12.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 17th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year YUMC closed higher on 44% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 10 years of records, YUMC finished the month higher 4 of 10 times, with a median return of -2.2% and an average of +1.7%. Its strongest month historically has been February at +4.2% on average, its weakest October at -4.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: YUMC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 216 of 2,490 sessions (8.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.4% and -9.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,491 daily closes between 2016-10-17 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against YUMC's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of YUMC's sector?

Yum China Holdings, Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 5th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#5 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for YUMC?

CallsPuts

For Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.02), with at-the-money implied volatility around 32.2%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±2.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $40.63–$43.07.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
1.02
ATM implied volatility
32.2%
Total open interest
2,319
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±2.9% ($40.63–$43.07)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on YUMC?

BWG Global most recently upgraded Yum China Holdings, Inc. to Positive on Jan 16, 2026. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BWG Global — Positive
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jan 16, 2026BWG GlobalUpgradeMixed → Positive-
Nov 5, 2024JP MorganUpgradeNeutral → Overweight$36 → $60
Aug 6, 2024MacquarieUpgradeUnderperform → Outperform$30 → $37
Mar 6, 2024HSBCMaintainedBuy$67 → $51
Jan 4, 2024JP MorganDowngradeOverweight → Neutral$65 → $38
Dec 19, 2023Deutsche BankInitiatedBuy$58
Sep 19, 2023HSBCMaintainedBuy$78 → $79
Apr 12, 2023OTR GlobalUpgradeMixed → Positive-
Feb 1, 2023JefferiesDowngradeBuy → Hold-
Jan 24, 2022OTR GlobalDowngradePositive → Mixed-
Sep 15, 2021MacquarieDowngradeNeutral → Underperform$56 → $53
Apr 6, 2021Atlantic EquitiesInitiatedOverweight$72

YUMC Competitive Positioning

Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) is tracked alongside these names in Restaurants on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

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YUMC is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.