CG·The Carlyle Group Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

21.0% 11th pct

Below its peak

-46.3%

vs 200-day average

-23.9%

Up days (1y)

49%

The Carlyle Group Inc. is currently running 21.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 11th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 32.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CG is trading -46.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -32.6%, and the deepest was -54.3% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -23.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 8th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year CG closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, CG finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.3% and an average of +1.0%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +8.2% on average, its weakest August at -5.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 296 of 3,266 sessions (9.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.3% and -15.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.