CIFR·Cipher Mining Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

81.2% 19th pct

Below its peak

-47.1%

vs 200-day average

-15.6%

Up days (1y)

47%

Cipher Mining Inc. is currently running 81.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CIFR's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 19th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 105.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CIFR is trading -47.1% below its running peak. Across 5 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -66.4%, and the deepest was -90.3% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -15.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 33rd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year CIFR closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 5 years of records, CIFR finished the month higher 3 of 5 times, with a median return of +26.9% and an average of +14.6%. Its strongest month historically has been March at +15.6% on average, its weakest December at -15.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CIFR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 481 of 1,464 sessions (32.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +15.5% and -14.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CIFR moved an average of 4.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.5% and a largest of -8.8%.

All figures computed from 1,465 daily closes between 2020-12-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CIFR's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.