CIFR·Cipher Mining Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

82.3% 21st pct

Below its peak

-61.3%

vs 200-day average

-38.0%

Up days (1y)

46%

Cipher Mining Inc. is currently running 82.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CIFR's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 21st percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 105.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CIFR is trading -61.3% below its running peak. Across 5 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -66.4%, and the deepest was -90.3% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -38.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 23rd percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year CIFR closed higher on 46% of sessions, and it is currently 6 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 6 years of records, CIFR finished the month higher 3 of 6 times, with a median return of +5.5% and an average of +7.7%. Its strongest month historically has been March at +15.6% on average, its weakest December at -15.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CIFR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 481 of 1,471 sessions (32.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +15.5% and -14.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CIFR moved an average of 4.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.5% and a largest of -8.8%.

All figures computed from 1,472 daily closes between 2020-12-07 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CIFR's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.