DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer DefensiveAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

DLTR·Dollar Tree, Inc.

$121.74
+5.46 (+4.70%)
After Hours
High
$122.05
Open
$116.32
Market Cap
22.26B
52W High
$142.40
Low
$115.96
P. Close
$121.74
P/E
13.80
52W Low
$85.88
Fwd P/E
14.70
DailyIQ Est.
$135.65
Inst. Ownership
51.1%
Short Interest
3.79%
Days to Cover
2.5
Technical Score (1D)
55
BULLISH
News Sentiment
47
MIXED
DLTR is building toward a key test on the 1D chart, scoring 55 with a NEUTRAL lean and mixed momentum. The bullish bias is strengthening, and price is pushing toward $121.98 - the level that needs to break on a closing basis for this setup to shift from potential to confirmed. Sentiment at 47 is diverging from the improving technical read, which removes one of the common headwinds that derail breakout attempts. Price action is in a neutral range and there's no obvious overhead resistance that would invalidate the setup before $121.98. Traders who prefer confirmed entries will wait for a close and follow-through above that level. Those entering in anticipation are sizing light, with $112.60 as the defined risk level if the breakout fails. Momentum-driven buyers tend to show up only after $121.98 actually breaks, which means the setup can look identical for days before anything changes on the tape. That's the nature of breakout-watch conditions: the NEUTRAL read and mixed momentum describe the pressure building, not the timing of when it releases.
LOW TARGET
$98 -19.4%
3 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$135 +11.3%
24 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$170 +39.8%
9 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$98.00 - $170.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
3/12/16/4/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$135.65 (+11.6%)
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Discount Stores
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Website
dollartree.com
Symbol
DLTR
Description
Dollar Tree, Inc. is a leading North American discount retailer operating under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada banners. The company's core business revolves around providing a broad assortment of merchandise at a single price point, primarily targeting value-conscious consumers. Its product offerings encompass a diverse range of categories, including everyday consumables like food and household essentials, along with a wide selection of variety goods such as toys and gifts. Dollar Tree also capitalizes on seasonal demand through dedicated merchandise for holidays throughout the year. Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia, the company's value proposition centers on affordability and convenience, making it a prominent player in the discount retail sector.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
12,824,494 shares
$248.8M
Stahl Stephanie-
Award/Grant393.25 shares2026-10-01
KELLY EDWARD J III-
Award/Grant327.71 shares2026-10-01
Stahl Stephanie-
Sell1,185 shares2026-09-04
Aflatooni RobertChief Information Officer
Sell2,500 shares2026-08-31
Maheshwari AdityaChief Accounting Officer
Tax Withholding127 shares2026-08-02
View full insider trading history →
69/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
36.4%
Net Margin
6.6%
Revenue CAGR
8.8%
Current Ratio
1.07x
Debt / Equity
0.65x
Return on Equity
34.2%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates as a leading North American discount retailer under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada banners, offering a wide assortment of merchandise at a single price point to value‑conscious consumers. The company’s business model focuses on everyday consumables, household essentials, and seasonal variety goods, positioning it firmly within the consumer defensive discount stores sector. In its most recent quarter, Q2 2027, Dollar Tree reported earnings per share of $2.70 versus an estimate of $1.39, and revenue of $4.891 billion against an estimate of $4.956 billion, marking a 7 % year‑over‑year sales lift and a 3.7 % rise in comparable‑store sales. Compared to Q1 2027, where EPS was $1.74 and revenue $4.970 billion, the company accelerated EPS growth by roughly 55 % while revenue dipped slightly, reflecting a shift toward higher average tickets and a broader price mix. The firm has consistently beat estimates in recent quarters, with EPS beats in Q2 2025, Q3 2025, Q1 2027, and Q2 2027, underscoring robust profitability despite modest revenue volatility. Historically, Dollar Tree has maintained steady year‑over‑year revenue growth, with notable EPS beats even when revenue growth slowed, indicating effective cost control and margin expansion. Recent news highlights management’s decision to lift its full‑year earnings outlook following the Q2 2027 beat, prompting analysts to raise price targets and signal confidence in continued profitability; the company also noted higher fuel costs as a “very, very meaningful” headwind that could erode margins.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.07$0.81$1.56$2.30$3.04Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$1.39$2.70+94.0%
Q1'27$0.99$1.74+75.0%
Q3'25$1.08$1.21+11.8%
Q2'25$0.41$0.77+87.6%
Q1'25$1.21$1.26+4.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$4.5B$4.7B$4.8B$5.0B$5.1BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$5.0B$4.9B-1.3%
Q1'27$5.1B$5.0B-1.9%
Q3'25 - $4.8B -
Q2'25 - $4.6B -
Q1'25 - $4.6B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

DLTR Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL55/100
$121.60−$0.14 (0.1%)
Market cap
22.26B
P/E ratio
13.8
Day range
$115.96 – $122.05
News sentiment
47/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$135.38 (+11.3%)
Consensus
Hold · 36 analysts
52-week range+41.6% off low · -14.6% from high
$85.88$142.40
Price $121.60 DailyIQ Est. $135.65

Neither side has the upper hand on DLTR right now, and its momentum ranks near the middle of DailyIQ's universe. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into DLTR?

RICH

At today's price, Dollar Tree, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 10.1% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.47% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 5.8% a year, so the market is asking for 4.2 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis DLTR looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
10.1%
Historical FCF CAGR
5.8%
Growth gap
+4.2 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
8.47%
Beta
0.72

Behaviour On Record

What DLTR's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
29.5% 60th pct
Below its peak
-30.4%
vs 200-day average
+4.1%
Up days (1y)
51%

Dollar Tree, Inc. is currently running 29.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against DLTR's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 60th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 26.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

DLTR is trading -30.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -27.4%, and the deepest was -59.1% in 2024. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +4.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 54th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year DLTR closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, DLTR finished the month higher 8 of 14 times, with a median return of +3.9% and an average of +2.7%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +7.8% on average, its weakest August at -6.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: DLTR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 75 of 3,268 sessions (2.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.6% and -6.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against DLTR's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of DLTR's sector?

Dollar Tree, Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 3rd of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading).

Sector rank
#3 of 12
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
91

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for DLTR?

CallsPuts

For Dollar Tree, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.75), with at-the-money implied volatility around 93.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $106.90–$119.78.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.75
ATM implied volatility
93.8%
Total open interest
5,877
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±5.7% ($106.90–$119.78)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on DLTR?

Loop Capital most recently upgraded Dollar Tree, Inc. to Buy on Oct 1, 2026 with a price target of $140 (from $130). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 2 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
Loop Capital — Buy
90-day upgrades
2
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+2
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 1, 2026Loop CapitalUpgradeHold → Buy$130 → $140
Sep 29, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$140 → $135
Sep 4, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$140 → $160
Aug 31, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$114 → $121
Aug 28, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$145 → $150
Aug 28, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$130 → $145
Aug 25, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$136 → $138
Aug 25, 2026GuggenheimMaintainedBuy$135 → $145
Aug 19, 2026JefferiesUpgradeUnderperform → Hold$85 → $135
Aug 17, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$145 → $155
Aug 11, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedUnderperform$90 → $98
Jul 31, 2026BernsteinMaintainedMarket Perform$124 → $127

Peers & ETF holders

DLTR peers & ETF holders

Discount StoresMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

47/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MIXED

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
On October 9, analyst Gordon Haskett revised Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) price target downward to $100 from $120, signaling a shift in expectations. The adjustment came amid broader market scrutiny of the retailer’s growth prospects and competitive pressures. The new target aligns with a hold rating and a mean price target of $136.35 reported by FactSet. This downgrade suggests investors anticipate slower earnings growth and tighter margins for the company.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree (DLTR) recorded a one‑time $383 million tariff refund that lifted its GAAP earnings per share to $2.70, surpassing analyst forecasts. The refund came amid concerns over traffic trends and a higher average ticket, prompting questions about short‑term momentum. Despite a modest decline in the last 30 and 90 days, the company’s 12‑month total shareholder return remained strong at 33.25%. The move suggests a modest upside potential, though the most significant gains may already be reflected in the current share price.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree amended its corporate by‑laws on October 8 to revise procedures for calling special shareholder meetings and to refresh board election mechanics. The changes clarify how investors can request special meetings and outline new processes for director nominations, voting, and disclosures. The amendments are a governance update that does not materially alter the company’s financial outlook or operational strategy.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree received a nine‑figure tariff refund from Washington after courts mandated reimbursements for import duties. The $400 million check represents a significant cost recovery for the retailer, offsetting higher shelf prices paid by consumers. The refund is expected to improve margins and support future pricing strategies. This material upside reflects a confirmed, positive catalyst for DLTR’s financial performance.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) was trading near $116 on October 6, with a 33.10% year‑to‑date gain. Analysts noted the company’s trailing earnings multiple of 14.14x is based on a recent quarter where earnings surged 173.10% on only 7.00% revenue growth, suggesting a one‑off boost. The article highlighted that the forward multiple of 14.67x exceeds the trailing figure, implying future earnings may not sustain the current level. It cautioned that the high valuation may be misleading, as the profit growth is unlikely to repeat.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree, Inc. reported that its second‑quarter comparable‑store sales rose 3.7%, driven by a 3.3% increase in average ticket and a 0.4% rise in traffic. The retailer now projects full‑year comparable sales growth of 3%‑4%, reflecting a broader assortment and improved store execution. Multi‑price penetration climbed 400 basis points to 17% of sales, while consumables and discretionary categories also showed gains. The company expects traffic to play a larger role in the back half of the year as pricing benefits moderate.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree announced a national partnership with Keep America Beautiful to support volunteer clean‑up events and funding for litter‑reduction initiatives. The collaboration includes participation in the Greatest American Cleanup campaign and volunteer projects in 25 U.S. cities through 2026. Dollar Tree will also finance programs such as the Litter Solution Grant Program and a community recognition award. The deal is positioned as a corporate social responsibility effort rather than a financial catalyst for the retailer.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree (DLTR) saw traffic rebound, supporting a defensive stance in a high‑rate environment. Sales trends improved, and the company raised its FY26 revenue guidance to $20.5‑$20.7 B with comparable sales growth of 3.0‑4.0%. EPS guidance was increased to $7.70‑$8.05, reflecting tariff refunds and operational gains. The outlook suggests a modest upside for DLTR, positioning it as an attractive defensive consumer‑staples pick.
What did this article say?
Dollar Tree (DLTR) reported continued sales per square foot growth driven by its multi‑price strategy, yet the company faces risks that could dilute its core value proposition. The retailer operates over 9,300 stores across the U.S. and Canada, focusing on efficient operations and expanding its product mix. Analysts view the stock as a hold, citing modest upside prospects and potential margin pressures. The company’s strategy aims to balance discount pricing with higher‑margin items, but market sentiment remains cautious.
What did this article say?
Zacks.com listed Dollar Tree (DLTR) among five stocks with attractive EV-to-EBITDA ratios, positioning it as a potential bargain for investors. The article noted that DLTR was included alongside other companies such as Lifetime Brands and Cenovus Energy. No specific guidance changes or earnings surprises were mentioned, and the piece focused on valuation metrics rather than operational updates. The inclusion suggests a mild positive view of DLTR’s valuation relative to peers, but no material catalyst was identified.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

55
NEUTRAL
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $11.69B combined position · 17 adding, 8 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▲ Buy24,960,30513.06%$3.02B2026-08-13
Vanguard Group Inc▼ Sell22,913,81911.99%$2.82B2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.▲ Buy15,926,9068.34%$1.93B2026-08-07
Geode Capital Management, LLC▼ Sell4,997,4702.62%$602.07M2026-08-12
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy4,282,1562.24%$517.93M2026-08-14
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy3,514,2901.84%$425.05M2026-08-14
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy2,820,3901.48%$341.13M2026-08-13
Citadel Advisors LLC▲ Buy2,512,6821.32%$303.91M2026-09-02
Norges Bank▲ Buy2,284,5851.20%$276.32M2026-08-12
Northern Trust Corp▲ Buy1,893,3830.99%$229.00M2026-08-13
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell2,007,6021.05%$219.85M2026-08-14
AQR Capital Management LLC▼ Sell1,305,4550.68%$156.62M2026-08-14
Janus Henderson Group plc▼ Sell1,290,5070.68%$141.32M2026-05-18
Bank of America Corp▼ Sell905,1200.47%$109.47M2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc▼ Sell838,9630.44%$101.47M2026-08-03
JPMorgan Chase & Co▼ Sell725,6490.38%$88.98M2026-08-12
Millennium Management LLC▲ Buy681,3660.36%$82.41M2026-08-14
Adage Capital Partners GP, L.L.C.▲ Buy499,4380.26%$60.41M2026-08-14
Gotham Asset Management, LLC▲ Buy489,7960.26%$59.24M2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company▲ Buy376,9470.20%$45.59M2026-08-14
Squarepoint Ops LLC▲ Buy327,7380.17%$39.64M2026-08-14
Bridgewater Associates, LP▲ Buy315,8550.17%$38.20M2026-08-14
Prudential Financial Inc▲ Buy289,8680.15%$35.06M2026-08-12
Sculptor Capital LP▲ New200,0000.10%$24.19M2026-08-14
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.▲ Buy196,3310.10%$23.75M2026-08-14
Q2 2026 flow:10.95M sh bought ($1.32B)1.58M sh sold ($180.64M)net +9.37M sh (+$1.14B)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
6 disclosed trades · ~$72.5K est. traded value · 2 buys, 4 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▼ Sell$15K - $50K2026-08-192026-09-10
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-04-092026-05-19
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-01-282026-02-13
Julia LetlowHouseLA05▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-09-172026-01-13
Julie JohnsonHouseTX32▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-04-012025-05-14
Julie JohnsonHouseTX32▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-01-152025-02-12
View full congressional trading history →

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