HLT·Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

17.1% 17th pct

Below its peak

-6.0%

vs 200-day average

+3.9%

Up days (1y)

53%

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is currently running 17.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against HLT's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 17th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 23.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

HLT is trading -6.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -17.3%, and the deepest was -51.1% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +3.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 31st percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year HLT closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 12 years of records, HLT finished the month higher 10 of 12 times, with a median return of +2.4% and an average of +2.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +6.1% on average, its weakest March at -2.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: HLT has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 128 of 3,226 sessions (4.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.8% and -10.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, HLT moved an average of 1.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.2% and a largest of -3.9%.

All figures computed from 3,227 daily closes between 2013-12-12 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against HLT's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.