Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

SELL

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Paychex’s latest earnings preview shows analysts now expect a 9 % year‑over‑year rise in EPS to $1.33 and a 5.1 % revenue increase to $1.62 billion, after trimming the consensus EPS estimate by 0.3 % in the past month. The modest downward revision signals that analysts are slightly more cautious about the company’s profitability trajectory, even as they remain broadly optimistic. For the next 1–10 trading days, the market will be watching the actual earnings release for any surprise in revenue or margin dynamics, as deviations could trigger a reassessment of Paychex’s cost‑management and client‑growth prospects. Paychex’s earnings guidance remains stable, but any miss on revenue or EPS could prompt a re‑evaluation of its valuation multiples. The company’s performance is also a barometer for the payroll‑processing sector, which is sensitive to changes in small‑business hiring and payroll‑related regulatory updates. Traders should monitor Paychex’s commentary on cost controls and new client acquisition, as these factors will influence the company’s ability to sustain growth in a competitive environment. Additionally, keep an eye on broader payroll‑processing industry trends, such as shifts in remote‑work payroll demands and potential regulatory changes that could affect the sector’s revenue mix. Finally, watch for any guidance updates or forward‑looking statements that could alter expectations for the next quarter.

PAYX|Analyst Targets

LOW TARGET

$105 -9.6%

5 analysts

MEAN TARGET

$121 +4.2%

17 analysts

HIGH TARGET

$150 +29.1%

3 analysts

PRICE RANGE

$105.00 - $150.00

SB / B / H / S / SS

2/1/15/4/3

DAILYIQ EST.

$115.99 (-0.1%)

PAYX|Company Info

Sector

Technology

Industry

Software - Application

Exchange

NMS

Country

United States

Website

paychex.com

Symbol

PAYX

Description

Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management solutions to small and medium-sized businesses across the United States, Europe, and India. The company's core offering centers on payroll processing, including tax administration and employee payment services, ensuring regulatory compliance. Beyond payroll, Paychex provides a suite of services encompassing employee benefits administration, retirement solutions, and HR support, from talent acquisition to management. They also offer workforce management tools, insurance services including workers' compensation, and a digital marketplace for earned wages. Paychex primarily utilizes a direct sales force to market its comprehensive HCM solutions, which have been serving businesses since 1971.

PAYX|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

0 shares

Sold (1Y)

230,711 shares

$25.2M

GOLISANO B THOMAS-

Gift334 shares2026-09-01

Simmons Christopher CVP, Controller & Treasurer

Tax Withholding130 shares2026-08-14

Schrader Robert L.Sr. VP, CFO

Sell2,600 shares2026-07-20

DOODY JOSEPH-

J164 shares2026-07-20

DOODY JOSEPH-

J164 shares2026-07-20

PAYX|Fundamentals

Bullish

Verdict: Bullish

✓Revenue growing year over year

✓Positive net margin

✓Positive operating cash flow

Net Margin

27.9%

Revenue CAGR

6.4%

Current Ratio

1.26x

Debt / Equity

1.22x

Return on Equity

47.1%

PAYX|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management solutions to small and medium‑size businesses across the United States, Europe, and India, with a core focus on payroll processing, tax administration, and employee payment services, while also offering benefits administration, retirement solutions, and HR support. The company operates in the technology sector, specifically within software applications that enable payroll and workforce management for a broad client base. In the most recent quarter, Q4 2026, Paychex reported earnings per share of $1.32 versus an estimate of $1.308, and revenue of $1.605 billion against an estimate of $1.632 billion, marking a slight revenue shortfall but an EPS beat; this contrasts with Q3 2026, where EPS of $1.71 beat the $1.671 estimate and revenue of $1.809 billion exceeded the $1.779 estimate, indicating a stronger performance in the prior quarter. Over the last two quarters, revenue growth slowed from a 12.5% increase in Q3 2026 to a 1.5% decline in Q4 2026, while EPS growth decelerated from 14.5% to 4.2%, suggesting margin pressure. Historically, Paychex has posted consistent revenue growth year over year, with EPS often beating estimates in the majority of quarters, though recent guidance shows a modest slowdown in revenue momentum. The company’s recent news highlights include a Wolfe Research upgrade to Peer Perform and the WISE platform receiving a Top HR Product of the Year award, both signaling positive analyst sentiment and potential acceleration of subscription revenue. Investors should watch for the upcoming Q1 2027 earnings call to confirm revenue trajectory, guidance on subscription growth, and any updates on cloud strategy, as these factors will be key to assessing whether Paychex can sustain its margin profile amid rising costs and maintain the upward momentum suggested by recent analyst upgrades.

Read full report

EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q1'27	$1.32	-	-
Q4'26	$1.31	$1.32	+0.9%
Q3'26	$1.67	$1.71	+2.3%
Q2'26	$1.67	$1.26	-24.5%
Q4'25	$1.23	$1.26	+2.4%
Q3'25	$1.20	$1.22	+1.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q1'27	$1.7B	-	-
Q4'26	$1.6B	$1.6B	-1.7%
Q3'26	$1.8B	$1.8B	+1.6%
Q2'26	$1.8B	$1.6B	-12.5%
Q4'25	-	$1.6B	-
Q3'25	-	$1.5B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

PAYX|Monthly Returns

Market Data

PAYX Stock Snapshot

HOLD41/100

$116.50+$0.37 (0.3%)

Market cap: 41.18B
P/E ratio: 23.4
Day range: $114.79 – $116.68
News sentiment: 66/100 · Bullish
Analyst target: $121.00 (+3.9%)
Consensus: Hold · 25 analysts

52-week range+36.3% off low · -11.0% from high

$85.45$130.88

Price $116.50 DailyIQ Est. $115.99

The technical read on PAYX is balanced, which usually means the market is waiting on a catalyst. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into PAYX?

CHEAP

At today's price, Paychex, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 2.2% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.74% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 7.7% a year, so the market is asking for 5.5 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis PAYX looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth: 2.2%
Historical FCF CAGR: 7.7%
Growth gap: -5.5 pts
Verdict: CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC): 7.74%
Beta: 0.63

Behaviour On Record

What PAYX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 23.7% 71st pct
Below its peak: -27.3%
vs 200-day average: +11.4%
Up days (1y): 47%

Paychex, Inc. is currently running 23.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PAYX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 71st percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 18.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PAYX is trading -27.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -14.2%, and the deepest was -42.3% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +11.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 80th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year PAYX closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, PAYX finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.8% and an average of -0.6%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.2% on average, its weakest January at -1.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PAYX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 65 of 3,267 sessions (2.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.1% and -8.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, PAYX moved an average of 1.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +1.7% and a largest of +2.0%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PAYX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of PAYX's sector?

Paychex, Inc. sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 1st of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Software industry group, PAYX ranks 3rd of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank: #1 of 11
Sector state: Leading
Sector rotation score: 90
Industry rank: #3 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for PAYX?

CallsPuts

For Paychex, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 26 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.28), with at-the-money implied volatility around 48.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±12.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $102.10–$131.34.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16): 0.28
ATM implied volatility: 48.8%
Total open interest: 3,530
Expected move by 2026-10-16: ±12.5% ($102.10–$131.34)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PAYX?

Wolfe Research most recently upgraded Paychex, Inc. to Peer Perform on Sep 16, 2026. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action: Wolfe Research — Peer Perform
90-day upgrades: 1
90-day downgrades: 0
Net rating momentum: +1

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price target
Sep 16, 2026	Wolfe Research	Upgrade	Underperform → Peer Perform	-
Sep 11, 2026	TD Cowen	Maintained	Hold	$98 → $117
Sep 9, 2026	Stifel	Maintained	Hold	$110 → $130
Sep 9, 2026	Wells Fargo	Maintained	Underweight	$95 → $111
Aug 13, 2026	Jefferies	Maintained	Hold	$105 → $120
Jul 30, 2026	Citigroup	Maintained	Buy	$140 → $150
Jul 22, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Neutral	$105 → $115
Jun 30, 2026	Morgan Stanley	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$107 → $109
Jun 25, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Neutral	$100 → $98
Jun 25, 2026	JP Morgan	Maintained	Underweight	$100 → $105
Jun 17, 2026	Stifel	Maintained	Hold	$105 → $110
Jun 15, 2026	Citigroup	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$99 → $140

PAYX Competitive Positioning

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is tracked alongside these names in Software - Application on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

PAYXyou're herePaychex, Inc.$41.2B+0.32%
SHOP.TOShopify Inc.$230.7B-0.37%
UBERUber Technologies, Inc.$144.8B+0.14%
NOWServiceNow, Inc.$141.4B+0.64%
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.$37.2B-0.08%
PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.$10.0B-0.03%

Held by These ETFs

PAYX is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

66/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

Paychex (PAYX) anticipates higher revenues and earnings per share for fiscal Q1, driven by strong bookings, pricing power, continued momentum in its Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segment, synergies from the Paycor acquisition, and AI‑enabled productivity tools. The company’s guidance signals a solid top‑line expansion and improved profitability, suggesting a positive earnings beat relative to market expectations. Traders should monitor the actual earnings release for confirmation of the projected upside and assess how the AI initiatives translate into cost savings and margin improvement.

What did this article say?

Wall Street analysts project Paychex (PAYX) to report earnings per share of $1.33, a 9% year‑over‑year rise, while revenue is expected to climb 5.1% to $1.62 billion. The consensus EPS estimate has been trimmed slightly by 0.3% over the past month, reflecting a modest recalibration of expectations. These revisions suggest analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the company’s quarterly performance. Investors should monitor the actual earnings release for any deviation from the forecasted figures, as well as any commentary on cost management and client growth. The guidance indicates a stable trajectory, but the market will be sensitive to any surprise in revenue or margin dynamics.

What did this article say?

Wolfe Research has upgraded Paychex (PAYX) from an Underperform to a Peer Perform rating, signaling a more favorable view of the company’s prospects. The upgrade reflects confidence in Paychex’s ability to generate steady cash flow and maintain its market position in the payroll services sector. Analysts noted that the company’s recent earnings beat expectations and that its strategic initiatives to expand digital offerings are progressing well. This rating change may influence investor sentiment and could lead to increased buying interest in PAYX shares.

What did this article say?

Paychex will report Q1 earnings on Sept. 23, with consensus estimates of $1.32 EPS and $1.63B revenue. Analysts have recently increased price targets, reflecting optimism about the company’s revenue growth trajectory. The upcoming earnings call will be key to confirm whether the company can sustain its earnings momentum and meet the revised forecasts.

What did this article say?

Wolfe Research’s Darrin Peller upgraded Paychex from Underperform to Peer Perform, citing stronger earnings prospects and a solid balance sheet. The upgrade reflects confidence in Paychex’s ability to deliver consistent revenue growth and maintain competitive positioning in the payroll services market. This positive rating change may influence investor sentiment and could support the stock’s valuation.

What did this article say?

TD Cowen’s analyst Jared Levine has upgraded Paychex to a Hold rating while raising the price target from $98 to $117. The upgrade reflects confidence in the company’s earnings outlook and its ability to sustain revenue growth. The new target suggests a potential upside for investors if Paychex continues to meet or exceed earnings expectations. Traders should monitor upcoming earnings releases and any guidance updates that could validate or challenge the new target.

What did this article say?

BMO Capital has lifted its price target for Paychex (PAYX) to $118 from $103 while keeping a market‑perform rating. The upgrade reflects confidence in Paychex’s earnings trajectory and its ability to sustain growth in the payroll‑processing sector. Analysts note that the higher target aligns with expectations of improved profitability and continued market share gains. The move suggests that the market views Paychex’s fundamentals favorably, potentially supporting a bullish stance for investors.

What did this article say?

Paychex announced that it will release its fiscal 2027 first‑quarter results on September 23, 2026, and host a conference call to discuss the numbers. The call will feature CEO John Gibson and CFO Bob Schrader and will be webcast before market open. The announcement provides a schedule but no new financial guidance or operational updates. Investors should note the call date and prepare to review the earnings release for any changes to revenue, earnings, or guidance. No material changes to expectations are implied at this time.

What did this article say?

Paychex has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year. Despite a recent rebound, analysts remain cautious about its long‑term growth prospects. The market has not yet priced in any upside, leaving the stock vulnerable to further downside if earnings miss expectations.

Technical Analysis

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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

25 tracked managers · $14.04B combined position · 14 adding, 8 trimming, 3 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
Vanguard Group Inc	▲ Buy	42,348,625	11.98%	$4.75B	2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.	▼ Sell	27,753,178	7.85%	$2.73B	2026-08-07
Invesco Ltd.	▲ Buy	13,040,655	3.69%	$1.28B	2026-08-14
Geode Capital Management, LLC	▼ Sell	10,250,030	2.90%	$1.01B	2026-08-12
Morgan Stanley	▲ Buy	6,540,823	1.85%	$643.16M	2026-08-13
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	▲ Buy	4,763,671	1.35%	$468.41M	2026-08-14
Bank of America Corp	▲ Buy	4,414,326	1.25%	$434.06M	2026-08-14
Northern Trust Corp	▲ Buy	4,006,462	1.13%	$393.96M	2026-08-13
Wells Fargo & Company	▼ Sell	3,852,234	1.09%	$378.79M	2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co	▲ Buy	2,838,927	0.80%	$283.35M	2026-08-12
Millennium Management LLC	▲ Buy	2,474,624	0.70%	$243.33M	2026-08-14
Norges Bank	▼ Sell	2,131,253	0.60%	$209.57M	2026-08-12
AQR Capital Management LLC	▲ Buy	2,040,389	0.58%	$200.63M	2026-08-14
Capital Research Global Investors	▲ Buy	2,098,312	0.59%	$193.38M	2026-05-13
FMR LLC (Fidelity)	▲ Buy	1,655,897	0.47%	$162.82M	2026-08-13
Susquehanna International Group, LLP	▼ Sell	1,136,818	0.32%	$111.78M	2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC	• Hold	1,125,134	0.32%	$110.63M	2026-09-02
Marshall Wace, LLP	▲ Buy	970,878	0.27%	$95.47M	2026-08-13
Gotham Asset Management, LLC	▲ Buy	757,118	0.21%	$74.45M	2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc	▼ Sell	598,650	0.17%	$58.87M	2026-08-03
AllianceBernstein L.P.	▼ Sell	520,422	0.15%	$47.94M	2026-08-14
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	• Hold	377,137	0.11%	$47.81M	2025-11-14
Capital World Investors	• Hold	440,000	0.12%	$40.53M	2026-05-13
Baillie Gifford & Co	▲ Buy	348,859	0.10%	$34.30M	2026-08-06
Adage Capital Partners GP, L.L.C.	▼ Sell	287,346	0.08%	$28.25M	2026-08-14

Q2 2026 flow:11.90M sh bought ($1.17B)1.63M sh sold ($159.25M)net +10.27M sh (+$1.01B)

Congressional Trading Activity

25 disclosed trades · ~$440.5K est. traded value · 12 buys, 13 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▼ Sell	$100K - $250K	2026-08-25	2026-09-09
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-04-21	2026-05-06
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-04-16	2026-05-06
Gilbert Cisneros	House	CA31	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-04-14	2026-05-08
Rick Larsen	House	WA02	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-04-07	2026-04-15
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-02-24	2026-03-10
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-02-23	2026-03-10
Richard W. Allen	House	GA12	▼ Sell	$15K - $50K	2026-01-14	2026-02-17
Marjorie Taylor Greene	House	GA14	▲ Buy	$15K - $50K	2025-11-12	2025-11-13
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-10-01	2025-11-04
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-09-25	2025-10-07
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-09-23	2026-08-05
Julie Johnson	House	TX32	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-09-23	2026-08-05
Lisa McClain	House	MI09	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-08-04	2025-09-12
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-07-23	2025-08-05
Lisa McClain	House	MI09	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-07-16	2025-08-13
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-06-26	2025-07-02
Marjorie Taylor Greene	House	GA14	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-05-05	2025-05-06
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-04-09	2025-05-02
Josh Gottheimer	House	NJ05	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-04-09	2025-05-14
Sheri Biggs	House	SC03	▼ Sell	$15K - $50K	2025-03-19	2025-10-05
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-02-27	2025-03-20
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-02-21	2025-03-20
Josh Gottheimer	House	NJ05	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-02-21	2025-03-06
April McClain Delaney	House	MD06	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-02-09	2025-03-20

PAYX·Paychex, Inc.

EPS

Revenue

PAYX Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into PAYX?

What PAYX's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of PAYX's sector?

What is the options market pricing for PAYX?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PAYX?

PAYX Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

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News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

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Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

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Earnings Events

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PAYX·Paychex, Inc.

EPS

Revenue

PAYX Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into PAYX?

What PAYX's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of PAYX's sector?

What is the options market pricing for PAYX?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PAYX?

PAYX Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News