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DailyIQ
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PAYX·Paychex, Inc.

$119.54
+0.83 (+0.70%)
After Hours
High
$122.72
Open
$120.52
Market Cap
42.26B
52W High
$127.98
Low
$118.71
P. Close
$119.54
P/E
23.40
52W Low
$85.45
Fwd P/E
18.70
DailyIQ Est.
$114.39
Inst. Own.
69.3%
Short Interest
5.88%
Days to Cover
7.8
Div. Yield
3.90%
Next Ex-Div
~Jan 25
Div. Growth
11+ yrs
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Sep 23, 2026Guidance raised · tone -4.8 vs prior release · 35 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
24
BEARISH
News Sentiment
69
BULLISH
On Nov 3, analysts reported that Paychex (PAYX) may be undervalued by roughly 39 % based on its robust cash flow performance, noting that the company’s recent cash generation has remained strong and that a 16.9 % return over the past month has drawn attention to the firm’s earnings potential. On the same day, Paychex released its Small Business Employment Watch data for October, showing that job growth among U.S. firms with fewer than 50 employees remained flat for the eighth consecutive month and that weekly hours worked increased for the eighth straight month. The data also indicated that hourly earnings growth stayed below three percent for the 26th consecutive month, suggesting that small employers are meeting demand by extending hours rather than hiring new staff. These developments were highlighted as supporting Paychex’s investment narrative and potentially reinforcing investor confidence in its payroll, workforce management, and advisory services.
LOW TARGET
$96 -19.5%
3 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$115 -3.9%
17 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$150 +25.8%
7 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$96.00 - $150.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
4/4/16/2/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$114.39 (-4.1%)
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Website
paychex.com
Symbol
PAYX
Description
Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management solutions to small and medium-sized businesses across the United States, Europe, and India. The company's core offering centers on payroll processing, including tax administration and employee payment services, ensuring regulatory compliance. Beyond payroll, Paychex provides a suite of services encompassing employee benefits administration, retirement solutions, and HR support, from talent acquisition to management. They also offer workforce management tools, insurance services including workers' compensation, and a digital marketplace for earned wages. Paychex primarily utilizes a direct sales force to market its comprehensive HCM solutions, which have been serving businesses since 1971.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
242,268 shares
$26.5M
Gibson John BPresident and CEO
Tax Withholding409 shares2026-10-19
DOODY JOSEPH-
J725 shares2026-10-16
TUCCI JOSEPH M-
Award/Grant4,040 shares2026-10-15
TUCCI JOSEPH M-
Award/Grant970 shares2026-10-15
Price Kevin A-
Award/Grant4,040 shares2026-10-15
View full insider trading history →
74/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
27.9%
Revenue CAGR
6.4%
Current Ratio
1.26x
Debt / Equity
1.22x
Return on Equity
47.1%
View full financials →

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.16$1.31$1.47$1.63$1.78Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$1.30 - -
Q1'27$1.32$1.34+1.6%
Q4'26$1.31$1.32+0.9%
Q3'26$1.67$1.71+2.3%
Q2'26$1.67$1.26-24.5%
Q4'25$1.23$1.26+2.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.5B$1.6B$1.7B$1.8B$1.8BQ4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$1.7B - -
Q1'27$1.7B$1.6B-1.7%
Q4'26$1.6B$1.6B-1.7%
Q3'26$1.8B$1.8B+1.6%
Q2'26$1.8B$1.6B-12.5%
Q4'25 - $1.6B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

PAYX Stock Snapshot

BEARISH24/100
$119.27−$0.27 (0.2%)
Market cap
42.26B
P/E ratio
23.4
Day range
$118.71 – $122.72
News sentiment
69/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$114.57 (-3.9%)
Consensus
Hold · 27 analysts
52-week range+39.6% off low · -6.8% from high
$85.45$127.98
Price $119.27 DailyIQ Est. $114.39

The signals on PAYX lean bearish, and the range position backs that up. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into PAYX?

CHEAP

At today's price, Paychex, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 1.9% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 7.20% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 7.8% a year, so the market is asking for 5.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis PAYX looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
1.9%
Growth trend
7.8%
Growth gap
-5.8 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
7.20%
Beta
0.61

Behaviour On Record

What PAYX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
35.4% 95th pct
Below its peak
-25.7%
vs 200-day average
+14.7%
Up days (1y)
50%

Paychex, Inc. is currently running 35.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PAYX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 95th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 19.1%.

PAYX is trading -25.7% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -14.7%, and the deepest was -42.3% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +14.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 91st percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year PAYX closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, PAYX finished the month higher 11 of 13 times, with a median return of +5.2% and an average of +5.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.2% on average, its weakest September at -1.7%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PAYX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 66 of 3,267 sessions (2.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.1% and -8.5%.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, PAYX moved an average of 2.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 4 times, with a median move of +0.6% and a largest of -3.5%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PAYX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of PAYX's sector?

Paychex, Inc. sits in the Software sector, currently ranked 11th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Software industry group, PAYX ranks 13th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#11 of 12
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
9
Industry rank
#13 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for PAYX?

CallsPuts

For Paychex, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 15 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.01), with at-the-money implied volatility around 47.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±8.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $99.62–$118.98.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
1.01
ATM implied volatility
47.6%
Total open interest
12,667
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±8.9% ($99.62–$118.98)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect PAYX to earn?

Analysts expect Paychex, Inc. to earn $5.96 per share in the fiscal year ending May 2027 and $6.71 in the fiscal year ending May 2029, from 3 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Nov 2026$1.28$1.24 to $1.3118$1.62B16
Feb 2027$1.87$1.85 to $1.9218$1.91B16
Aug 2027$1.44$1.41 to $1.485~$1.65B-
Nov 2027$1.43$1.37 to $1.495~$1.64B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
May 2027$5.96$5.93 to $6.0019$6.86B18
May 2028$6.39$6.00 to $6.5019$7.24B18
May 2029$6.71$6.59 to $6.863~$7.67B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PAYX?

Baird most recently reiterated its rating on Paychex, Inc. to Neutral on Sep 28, 2026 with a price target of $110 (from $125). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 2 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
Baird: Neutral
90-day upgrades
2
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+2
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 28, 2026BairdMaintainedNeutral$125 → $110
Sep 28, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedUnderweight$112 → $96
Sep 24, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$125 → $115
Sep 24, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedMarket Perform$118 → $113
Sep 24, 2026StifelMaintainedHold$130 → $112
Sep 24, 2026RBC CapitalReiteratedSector Perform$130
Sep 24, 2026JP MorganUpgradeUnderweight → Neutral$105 → $115
Sep 16, 2026Wolfe ResearchUpgradeUnderperform → Peer Perform-
Sep 11, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$98 → $117
Sep 9, 2026StifelMaintainedHold$110 → $130
Sep 9, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedUnderweight$95 → $111
Aug 13, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$105 → $120

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Paychex, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Sep 23, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Guidance raised
Tone76.4/ 100-4.8 vs prior release
Hedging words0.63per 100 words-0.29 vs prior release
Tone, last 2 releasesScale 50–87

Most important lines

  1. 1

    PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue growth7% to 8%Previously 6% to 7%

    Guidance raised
  2. 2

    Operating income grew 14% to $619.2 million, primarily reflecting revenue growth and lower acquisition-related costs, and adjusted operating income grew 9% to $684.7 million.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    Total revenue growth5% to 6%No change

    Guidance reaffirmedNew this quarter

Scores describe the release's wording. They are not a forecast.

Read all 35 scored lines →

Peers & ETF holders

PAYX peers & ETF holders

Software - ApplicationMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about PAYX?

PAYX rose 19.8% over the month to Nov 5. News tone held between 11 and 80 from Oct 5 to Oct 29, then jumped to 82 on Oct 30.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 5 to Nov 5
$100$110$120Oct 5: tone 77Oct 6Oct 7: tone 27Oct 8: tone 78Oct 9: tone 50Oct 12: tone 62Oct 13: tone 54Oct 14Oct 15: tone 52Oct 16: tone 44Oct 19: tone 80Oct 20: tone 30Oct 21: tone 27Oct 22: tone 25Oct 23: tone 74Oct 26: tone 62Oct 27: tone 50Oct 28: tone 47Oct 29: tone 11Oct 30: tone 82Nov 2Nov 3: tone 62Nov 4: tone 82Nov 5Oct 5News toneNov 5123
  1. Oct 22 +5.8%
  2. Oct 27 -5.4%
  3. Nov 2 +4.5%
Latest stories naming Paychex

Technical analysis

How strong is PAYX's momentum right now?

On the daily chart PAYX ranks at the 24th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling PAYX?

90 of the 196 tracked managers added to PAYX in their latest 13F and 104 trimmed. Together they own 69.3% of the company, worth $24.2B. Capital International Investors and BlackRock alone hold 16.0%.

90adding104trimming2unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of PAYX
  1. 1Capital International Investors8.14%
    $2.8B positionTrimmed 3.7% last quarter
  2. 2BlackRock, Inc.7.83%
    $2.7B positionTrimmed 2.3% last quarter
  3. 3Vanguard Capital Management LLC5.94%
    $2.1B positionAdded 0.4% last quarter
  4. 4Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC4.31%
    $1.5B positionAdded 0.2% last quarter
  5. 5State Street Corp4.07%
    $1.4B positionAdded 2.6% last quarter
  6. 6Invesco Ltd.3.68%
    $1.3B positionAdded 73.1% last quarter
  7. 7Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc2.94%
    $1.0B positionAdded 11.0% last quarter
  8. 8Geode Capital Management, LLC2.89%
    $1.0B positionTrimmed 0.2% last quarter
  9. 9Morgan Stanley1.85%
    $643.2M positionAdded 23.5% last quarter
  10. 10Federated Hermes, Inc.1.66%
    $578.4M positionTrimmed 0.1% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading PAYX?

11 members of Congress disclosed 25 PAYX trades between Mar 19, 2025 and Aug 25, 2026: 9 buys and 16 sells, about $440.5K in estimated value.

BuysSellsAprJulOctJan ’26AprJul
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart
Full trading history

Discover more

How has PAYX done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 5, PAYX returned +29.0%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 5 did better, led by CRWD at +82.6%.

Change since May 5, through Nov 5
−50%0%+50%+100%+150%May 5JunJulAugSepOctNov 5CRWD +82.6%PAYX +29.0%ORCL −38.2%