TDG|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $8.12 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $10.40 | $10.87 | +4.5% |
| Q2'26 | $9.96 | $9.85 | -1.1% |
| Q3'25 | $10.05 | $10.82 | +7.6% |
| Q2'25 | $9.90 | $9.60 | -3.0% |
| Q1'25 | $8.95 | $9.11 | +1.8% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $2.3B | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $2.7B | $2.7B | +1.4% |
| Q2'26 | $2.6B | $2.5B | -2.3% |
| Q3'25 | - | $2.4B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $2.2B | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $2.1B | - |
TDG|Monthly Returns
Market Data
TDG Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 61.46B
- P/E ratio
- 28.9
- Day range
- $1082.40 – $1123.44
- News sentiment
- 49/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $1522.79 (+37.7%)
- Consensus
- Hold · 28 analysts
Price action on TDG is defensive - rallies are being sold rather than extended. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into TDG?
At today's price, TransDigm Group Incorporated needs to grow free cash flow about 24.2% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.60% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 14.5% a year, so the market is asking for 9.8 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis TDG looks priced above what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 24.2%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 14.5%
- Growth gap
- +9.8 pts
- Verdict
- RICH
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 7.60%
- Beta
- 0.76
Behaviour On Record
What TDG's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 20.4% 40th pct
- Below its peak
- -32.3%
- vs 200-day average
- -13.2%
- Up days (1y)
- 51%
TransDigm Group Incorporated is currently running 20.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TDG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 40th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 22.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
TDG is trading -32.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -17.5%, and the deepest was -62.2% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.
Price sits -13.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 4th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TDG closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.
On September specifically: over 14 years of records, TDG finished the month higher 5 of 14 times, with a median return of -2.3% and an average of -2.1%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +6.2% on average, its weakest March at -3.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: TDG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 147 of 3,268 sessions (4.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.0% and -12.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
Across the last 3 dated reports on file, TDG moved an average of 1.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +1.1% and a largest of +1.8%.
All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TDG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of TDG's sector?
TransDigm Group Incorporated sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Aerospace & Defense industry group, TDG ranks 15th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.
- Sector rank
- #11 of 11
- Sector state
- Lagging
- Sector rotation score
- 10
- Industry rank
- #15 of 15
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TDG?
UBS most recently reiterated its rating on TransDigm Group Incorporated to Buy on Aug 5, 2026 with a price target of $1695 (from $1585). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 2 downgrades, a net bearish lean.
- Latest action
- UBS — Buy
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 2
- Net rating momentum
- -2
TDG Competitive Positioning
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