TM·Toyota Motor Corp

Realized volatility (21d)

18.7% 43rd pct

Below its peak

-26.0%

vs 200-day average

-5.9%

Up days (1y)

51%

Toyota Motor Corp is currently running 18.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 43rd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 20.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TM is trading -26.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -19.5%, and the deepest was -37.9% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -5.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 25th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TM closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, TM finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.3% and an average of +0.9%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +3.1% on average, its weakest March at -2.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 237 of 3,267 sessions (7.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.7% and -6.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.