DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated 3 minutes ago

TSCO·Tractor Supply Company

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$30.58
Open
$30.30
Market Cap
15.95B
52W High
$63.99
Low
$29.85
P. Close
$30.44
P/E
14.75
52W Low
$28.36
Fwd P/E
13.28
DailyIQ Est.
$45.62
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
49
MIXED
TSCO’s shares have recently been reclassified into value‑oriented Russell indices while removed from growth‑focused ones, a move that could shift the investor base toward dividend‑seeking investors and alter the stock’s beta relative to new benchmarks. This reclassification comes amid a 45.3 % decline in the past year, raising questions about whether the current price already reflects analyst downgrades and softer operating trends. Analysts note that while market multiples suggest a fair valuation, discounted‑cash‑flow models still imply a premium, indicating lingering valuation risk that could influence short‑term sentiment. TSCO is simultaneously investing in digital capabilities and pet services to drive future cash flows, a strategy that may mitigate the impact of the recent downturn if execution is successful. In June, the company announced a partnership with Starlink and 4‑H to deploy 100 broadband kits and contribute $500,000 to STEM initiatives, positioning TSCO as a community partner that could boost rural foot traffic and ESG credentials. However, the broadband push is unlikely to produce immediate changes in comparable sales or big‑ticket demand, so its near‑term effect on earnings remains uncertain. Traders should monitor the rollout timeline and adoption rates of the broadband initiative, as any acceleration could translate into incremental foot traffic and sales lift. Additionally, watch for any revisions to earnings guidance that could offset the negative momentum from the reclassification and valuation concerns. Finally, keep an eye on trading volume and beta adjustments following the index shift, as increased value‑investor participation could alter volatility dynamics over the next 1–10 trading days.
Earnings Summary
Tractor Supply Company is a leading U.S. retailer that serves rural and recreational lifestyles, offering livestock supplies, pet care, seasonal equipment, and hardware through its Tractor Supply, Petsense, and Orscheln Farm and Home banners. As a specialty retailer in the consumer cyclical sector, the company focuses on a niche customer base that drives its sales mix. In the most recent two quarters, Q1 2026 and the pending Q2 2026, the retailer posted EPS of $0.31 and a projected $? for Q2, compared with $0.43 in Q4 2025 and $0.49 in Q3 2025, indicating a decline in earnings momentum. Revenue fell from $3.898 B in Q4 2025 to $3.592 B in Q1 2026 but is expected to rise to $4.738 B in Q2 2026, suggesting a modest rebound after a contraction. Across the last six quarters, the company has beaten analyst estimates only twice, with EPS surpassing expectations in Q2 2025 and Q3 2025, while missing in the other periods. Year‑over‑year, revenue grew from $3.7735 B in Q4 2024 to $3.898 B in Q4 2025, but fell to $3.592 B in Q1 2026, reflecting a mixed trajectory. EPS followed a similar pattern, declining from $0.44 in Q4 2025 to $0.31 in Q1 2026, underscoring pressure on profitability. The pattern of frequent misses suggests that margin compression and competitive dynamics are weighing on earnings. Recent developments include a partnership with Starlink and 4‑H to deploy 100 Starlink kits and donate $500,000, a move that enhances the company’s ESG profile but is unlikely to materially alter near‑term sales. Analyst sentiment has been cautious, with Mizuho downgrading the stock to neutral and cutting its target to $32, citing weaker earnings outlook and competitive pressure. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings release for guidance on comparable sales, margin trends, and the impact of the Starlink partnership, as these metrics will be key to determining whether the company can reverse its earnings misses and support a higher valuation.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.23$0.41$0.59$0.77$0.95Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$0.85 - -
Q1'26$0.87$0.31-64.2%
Q4'25$0.47$0.43-8.9%
Q3'25$0.48$0.49+1.7%
Q2'25$0.80$0.81+0.9%
Q1'25$0.37$0.34-7.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.3B$3.7B$4.1B$4.5B$4.9BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$4.7B - -
Q1'26$4.7B$3.6B-23.3%
Q4'25$4.1B$3.9B-4.4%
Q3'25 - $3.7B -
Q2'25 - $4.4B -
Q1'25 - $3.5B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

TSCO Stock Snapshot

TSCO is currently trading at $30.59, giving Tractor Supply Company a market cap of 15.95B and a P/E ratio of 14.8. Today's range spans $29.85–$30.58, with shares opening at $30.30 and moving up $0.15 (0.5%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 32/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 49/100.

Over the past year TSCO has traded between $28.36 and $63.99 - the current price is +7.9% off the 52-week low and -52.2% from the high. 39 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $43.93 (range $32.00–$60.00), implying upside of +43.6%.

TSCO: large-cap, Consumer Cyclical, 15.95B market cap. (P/E: 14.8) Technical score 32/100 (SELL). Sentiment: neutral (49/100). Price: $30.59 (near 52-week lows). Range: $28.36–$63.99. The SELL designation at this capitalization tier doesn't mean the stock is uninvestable - it means the risk/reward of buying dips hasn't been restored yet, and patience or an outright hedge is often the better posture until technical conditions improve.

When a large-cap Consumer Cyclical name with 15.95B in capitalization prints a SELL signal (32/100) alongside neutral news sentiment (49/100), the risk isn't just price depreciation — it's the loss of institutional sponsorship that makes recovery harder. At $30.59 (near 52-week lows in the $28.36–$63.99 range), the structural support levels are where that sponsorship question gets answered.