DailyIQ
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Sector:EnergyAll sectors
Last updated 3 minutes ago

VLO·Valero Energy Corporation

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$318.22
Open
$315.96
Market Cap
92.68B
52W High
$309.90
Low
$310.01
P. Close
$313.31
P/E
22.04
52W Low
$130.78
Fwd P/E
31.01
DailyIQ Est.
$279.83
Technical Score (1D)
95
BUY
News Sentiment
67
BULLISH
Valero Energy closed 1.18 % higher at $313.31, outpacing the S&P 500, as traders anticipate its July 30 earnings report that projects a $9.81 EPS and $35.95 billion in revenue. The refiner’s 31.04 % monthly gain has positioned it as the top performer in the Oils‑Energy sector, reinforcing the narrative of strong refining margins. This upside is supported by a record crack spread near $70 a barrel, driven by the Hormuz oil bottleneck that has lifted Valero’s throughput and utilization rates to near capacity. However, the company’s 52‑week high raises questions about sustainability, as rising crude prices and tightening environmental regulations could erode future profitability. The earnings outlook remains robust, with consensus full‑year estimates of $32.61 EPS and $135.14 billion in revenue, suggesting continued growth momentum. In the short term, the near‑capacity throughput limits upside potential, making Valero’s ability to adjust production in response to supply disruptions a key factor. Traders should watch for any updates on refinery expansion plans or changes in crude supply that could affect the record crack spread. Additionally, monitoring regulatory developments that could impose new environmental constraints will be important for assessing long‑term risk. The next earnings release on July 30 will be a critical touchstone for confirming whether Valero can sustain its margin gains amid these headwinds.
Earnings Summary
Valero Energy Corporation is a global leader in refining and marketing transportation fuels and petrochemical products, operating through its Valero and Texaco brands and expanding into renewable diesel and ethanol production. The company operates within the energy sector’s oil & gas refining & marketing industry, serving customers across North America, Europe, Latin America, and Peru. In its most recent quarter, Q4 2025, Valero reported earnings per share of $3.82 versus an estimate of $3.30, a beat, while revenue reached $30.37 billion against an estimate of $28.32 billion, also a beat. The preceding quarter, Q1 2026, saw earnings of $4.22 versus an estimate of $7.96, a miss, and revenue of $32.38 billion versus an estimate of $36.31 billion, another miss. Compared to the prior two quarters, Q3 2025 and Q2 2025, both of which were beats, Valero’s recent performance shows a shift from consistent earnings and revenue beats to a miss in the most recent quarter, with revenue growth decelerating after a slight decline in Q4 2025. Historically, Valero has posted strong quarterly earnings growth, with EPS rising from $0.64 in Q4 2024 to $3.66 in Q3 2025, and revenue fluctuating around $30 billion, indicating resilience amid market volatility. Recent news highlights a record crack spread near $70 per barrel driven by the Hormuz oil bottleneck, boosting throughput and utilization rates to near capacity, and a $5 billion expansion of the share‑buyback program that signals management confidence in cash flow. The company also maintains a regular quarterly dividend of $1.20, underscoring its cash‑flow strength. Forward‑looking watch points for investors include monitoring the upcoming earnings release for guidance on refining margins, the pace of the buyback program, and any changes in the crack spread or crude supply dynamics, as well as regulatory developments that could impact environmental compliance costs. These factors will be key to assessing whether Valero can sustain its margin gains and continue to deliver shareholder returns.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.97$2.17$5.31$8.46$11.60Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$10.15 - -
Q1'26$7.96$4.22-47.0%
Q4'25$3.30$3.82+15.8%
Q3'25$3.05$3.66+19.9%
Q2'25$1.77$2.28+29.1%
Q1'25$0.48$0.89+86.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$26.8B$30.1B$33.5B$36.9B$40.3BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$38.7B - -
Q1'26$36.3B$32.4B-10.8%
Q4'25$28.3B$30.4B+7.2%
Q3'25 - $32.2B -
Q2'25 - $29.9B -
Q1'25 - $30.3B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

VLO Stock Snapshot

VLO is currently trading at $314.04, giving Valero Energy Corporation a market cap of 92.68B and a P/E ratio of 22.0. Today's range spans $310.01–$318.22, with shares opening at $315.96 and moving up $0.73 (0.2%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 95/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 67/100.

Over the past year VLO has traded between $130.78 and $309.90 - the current price is +140.1% off the 52-week low and +1.3% from the high. 25 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $276.33 (range $190.00–$340.00), implying downside of -12.0%.

VLO scores 95/100 (BUY) and is at $314.04 - near 52-week highs within its $130.78–$309.90 annual range. Sentiment at 67/100 is bullish. At 92.68B in Energy market cap (P/E: 22.0), this large-cap name benefits from a dynamic that mega-caps don't have: the potential for multiple expansion. When a name at this size with bullish momentum catches the attention of large allocators, the re-rating can be rapid and meaningful.

What makes VLO's BUY setup (95/100) particularly actionable at 92.68B in Energy capitalization is the scale-to-move ratio: large enough to feature on institutional mandates but not so large that the percentage upside is already compressed by index inertia. At $314.04 (near 52-week highs in $130.78–$309.90), with sentiment running bullish at 67/100, the setup rewards conviction-sized positioning more than it does speculative small bets.