Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

100

BUY

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Zacks Research’s latest report, released just under eight hours ago, names Valero Energy (VLO) as a top pick, citing strong demand, pricing and operational strengths that reinforce its resilience amid volatile commodity prices. This endorsement signals a bullish sentiment that could lift short‑term pricing and market sentiment. A day earlier, analysts lifted consensus earnings estimates for the next quarter and full year, driven by expectations of higher refining margins and stronger product demand; the consensus lift is expected to support VLO’s recent rally and could translate into near‑term share price gains. The same day, Valero’s July 30 earnings report delivered an EPS surprise of $12.54 versus a $9.87 consensus, pushing the stock to a 52‑week high and underscoring efficient operations even as revenue growth slows. These developments collectively suggest that VLO’s profitability is improving, which should keep the stock on an upward trajectory for the next 1–10 trading days. However, analysts caution that a steep earnings decline is projected for 2027, driven by a potential contraction in refining margins, which could temper long‑term upside. Traders should monitor the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of the revised guidance and any commentary on refining volumes and commodity prices. Additionally, keep an eye on the 2027 earnings guidance and any changes in crack spreads that could signal a shift in the company’s valuation cycle.

VLO|Analyst Targets

LOW TARGET

$238 -42.4%

2 analysts

MEAN TARGET

$355 -14.0%

17 analysts

HIGH TARGET

$450 +8.9%

8 analysts

PRICE RANGE

$238.00 - $450.00

SB / B / H / S / SS

4/10/11/1/1

DAILYIQ EST.

$362.52 (-12.3%)

VLO|Company Info

Sector

Energy

Industry

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Exchange

NYQ

Country

United States

Website

valero.com

Symbol

VLO

Description

Valero Energy Corporation is a global leader in the production and distribution of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's core business revolves around refining crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other essential products, which are then sold through various channels under established brand names like Valero and Texaco. Beyond traditional refining, Valero operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, producing sustainable fuels and related byproducts. This strategic diversification allows Valero to offer a comprehensive portfolio of energy solutions, including renewable options, catering to a diverse customer base across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, and Peru. Headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, Valero, originally founded in 1980, has evolved into a prominent player in the energy sector.

VLO|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

0 shares

Sold (1Y)

22,500 shares

$5.7M

Walsh Richard JoeEVP & GC

Gift3,104 shares2026-08-21

Fisher Eric ASVP

Sell7,500 shares2026-06-29

Fisher Eric ASVP

Sell7,500 shares2026-06-18

Fisher Eric ASVP

Sell7,500 shares2026-05-18

VLO|Fundamentals

Neutral / mixed

Verdict: Neutral

✕Revenue declining year over year

✓Positive net margin

✓Positive operating cash flow

Gross Margin

4.4%

Net Margin

1.9%

Revenue CAGR

5.5%

Current Ratio

1.65x

Debt / Equity

0.39x

Return on Equity

9.9%

VLO|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Valero Energy Corporation is a global leader in refining and marketing transportation fuels, operating a diversified portfolio that includes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and renewable diesel and ethanol plants across North America and beyond. The company’s focus on sourcing lower-cost crude from the U.S., Canada, and Venezuela positions it well within the oil & gas refining sector, where margin volatility is a key driver of performance. In the most recent quarters, Valero delivered strong earnings, posting EPS of $0.64 in Q4 2024, $0.89 in Q1 2025, $2.28 in Q2 2025, and $3.66 in Q3 2025, each beating analyst expectations by a wide margin; revenue remained relatively flat, hovering around $30 billion, with a modest uptick to $32.17 billion in Q3 2025. The trend of EPS growth outpacing revenue growth continued into Q4 2025, where EPS rose to $3.82 against revenue of $30.37 billion, and into Q1 2026, where EPS reached $4.22 while revenue dipped to $32.38 billion, indicating a deceleration in top-line growth but sustained profitability. Historically, Valero has maintained a YoY EPS growth trajectory, consistently beating estimates in the last four quarters and achieving revenue growth in three of those periods, underscoring a pattern of robust earnings expansion even when revenue growth slows. Recent news highlights a Zacks Rank upgrade to #1 and analyst target revisions, reflecting confidence in Valero’s refining margins and low-cost crude advantage; the company’s valuation has improved with a PEG ratio well below the industry average, suggesting that investors are optimistic about future cash‑flow generation. Going forward, investors should watch for the next earnings release to confirm whether the upgraded estimates translate into actual margin improvement, monitor crude oil price swings that directly influence refining profitability, and keep an eye on any regulatory updates affecting low‑carbon fuel mandates, as these could further enhance Valero’s growth narrative.

Read full report

EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$18.23	-	-
Q2'26	$15.22	$12.54	-17.6%
Q1'26	$7.96	$4.22	-47.0%
Q4'25	$3.30	$3.82	+15.8%
Q3'25	$3.05	$3.66	+19.9%
Q2'25	$1.77	$2.28	+29.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$37.3B	-	-
Q2'26	$39.4B	$44.5B	+12.7%
Q1'26	$36.3B	$32.4B	-10.8%
Q4'25	$28.3B	$30.4B	+7.2%
Q3'25	-	$32.2B	-
Q2'25	-	$29.9B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

VLO|Monthly Returns

Market Data

VLO Stock Snapshot

BUY100/100

$413.15+$0.15 (0.0%)

Market cap: 116.22B
P/E ratio: 16.1
Day range: $409.00 – $416.66
News sentiment: 59/100 · Neutral
Analyst target: $355.47 (-14.0%)
Consensus: Hold · 27 analysts

52-week range+166.4% off low · -0.1% from high

$155.11$413.45

Price $413.15 DailyIQ Est. $362.52

Trend, momentum and range position line up bullish on VLO at the moment. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Energy tend to move together on rotation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into VLO?

RICH

At today's price, Valero Energy Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 25.9% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.32% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 5.8% a year, so the market is asking for 20.1 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis VLO looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth: 25.9%
Historical FCF CAGR: 5.8%
Growth gap: +20.1 pts
Verdict: RICH
Discount rate (WACC): 8.32%
Beta: 0.72

Behaviour On Record

What VLO's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 26.1% 29th pct
Below its peak: 0.0%
vs 200-day average: +63.8%
Up days (1y): 55%

Valero Energy Corporation is currently running 26.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against VLO's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 29th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 31.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

VLO is at its running peak. Across 12 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -29.6%, with the deepest at -65.2% in 2020 — so highs have historically been given back before they were extended.

Price sits +63.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 100th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year VLO closed higher on 55% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, VLO finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +4.6% and an average of +1.6%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +4.4% on average, its weakest June at -0.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: VLO has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 115 of 3,267 sessions (3.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.8% and -5.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, VLO moved an average of 1.6% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.9% and a largest of -2.7%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-18 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against VLO's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of VLO's sector?

Valero Energy Corporation sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 2nd of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank: #2 of 11
Sector state: Weakening
Sector rotation score: 80

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for VLO?

CallsPuts

For Valero Energy Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 0 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.79), with at-the-money implied volatility around 41.1%.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18): 0.79
ATM implied volatility: 41.1%
Total open interest: 26,290

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on VLO?

Raymond James most recently reiterated its rating on Valero Energy Corporation to Strong Buy on Sep 14, 2026 with a price target of $450 (from $350). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action: Raymond James — Strong Buy
90-day upgrades: 0
90-day downgrades: 0
Net rating momentum: 0

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price target
Sep 14, 2026	Raymond James	Maintained	Strong Buy	$350 → $450
Sep 14, 2026	Morgan Stanley	Maintained	Equal-Weight	$255 → $411
Sep 8, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Buy	$355 → $450
Sep 3, 2026	Piper Sandler	Maintained	Overweight	$329 → $435
Sep 1, 2026	Wells Fargo	Maintained	Overweight	$356 → $389
Aug 4, 2026	Mizuho	Maintained	Neutral	$289 → $300
Aug 3, 2026	TD Cowen	Maintained	Hold	$338 → $350
Jul 31, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Buy	$280 → $355
Jul 31, 2026	Wells Fargo	Maintained	Overweight	$292 → $356
Jul 31, 2026	Barclays	Maintained	Overweight	$279 → $323
Jul 22, 2026	Goldman Sachs	Maintained	Buy	$286 → $357
Jul 21, 2026	TD Cowen	Maintained	Hold	$292 → $338

VLO Competitive Positioning

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

VLOyou're hereValero Energy Corporation$116.2B+0.04%
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation$117.8B-0.04%
PSXPhillips 66$105.6B+0.10%

Held by These ETFs

VLO is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

59/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

Valero Energy Corp. has elected Matt Audette, CFO of LPL Financial, to its board and audit committee, broadening the company’s governance expertise. The move signals a focus on strengthening financial oversight and risk management but carries no immediate impact on earnings or operations. Investors should monitor how Audette’s experience may influence Valero’s capital allocation and compliance practices.

What did this article say?

Zacks Research highlighted Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) in its latest analyst report, noting strong demand, pricing, and operational strengths. The inclusion signals a positive outlook for VLO, suggesting potential upside for investors. The report positions VLO alongside other high-profile stocks, indicating that analysts view it as a solid play in the energy sector. Traders should consider how this endorsement may influence short‑term pricing and market sentiment. The analysis also underscores VLO’s resilience amid volatile commodity prices, reinforcing its strategic positioning.

What did this article say?

Valero Energy (VLO) has seen a sharp uptick in earnings estimates from analysts, reflecting a consensus view that the company’s profitability will improve in the coming quarter. The revisions are driven by expectations of higher refining margins and stronger demand for refined products. With the consensus estimates now above prior guidance, the market anticipates a positive impact on VLO’s earnings per share and cash flow generation. This upward revision is expected to support the stock’s recent rally and could lead to further price appreciation if the company meets or exceeds the new targets. Traders should monitor actual earnings releases and any subsequent analyst adjustments for confirmation of the revised outlook.

What did this article say?

Valero Energy’s share price has surged year‑to‑date, but analysts warn that a steep earnings decline is expected in 2027, making the current valuation a potential peak‑cycle trap. The company’s high crack spreads, driven by reduced Russian refining capacity, have boosted short‑term profits, yet the long‑term outlook is dampened by projected earnings contraction. Investors should monitor the 2027 earnings guidance and any changes in refining margins.

What did this article say?

Valero Energy posted a robust earnings surprise in its July 30, 2026 report, with EPS of $12.54 versus a consensus of $9.87, propelling the stock to a 52‑week high. The company’s EPS growth outpaces revenue growth, signaling efficient operations. While the next fiscal year shows a modest revenue decline, the current year’s earnings momentum supports a bullish outlook. Traders should watch the upcoming earnings release and any guidance revisions.

What did this article say?

Valero Energy (VLO) closed up 1.57% on the day, outperforming major indices and showing a 13.42% monthly gain. The company is slated to report earnings on October 22, 2026, with analysts projecting a 394.26% year‑over‑year earnings jump to $18.09 per share and revenue growth of 19.81% to $38.54 billion for the quarter. Consensus estimates for the full year anticipate earnings of $46.41 per share and revenue of $150.52 billion, marking substantial year‑on‑year increases. The rally reflects market optimism about Valero’s profitability outlook and its positioning in the energy sector.

What did this article say?

Valero Energy (VLO) is highlighted as a strong candidate for momentum traders, with a current Zacks Momentum Style Score of A. The analysis emphasizes the importance of price movement and earnings estimate revisions in driving the stock’s momentum profile. While the piece outlines the potential for continued upward movement, it does not provide new earnings data or guidance changes, suggesting the upside is based on recent trend rather than a fundamental shift. Traders should monitor VLO’s short‑term price action and any forthcoming earnings releases for confirmation of the momentum thesis.

What did this article say?

Valero Energy’s Gulf Coast refining network and crude flexibility are poised to sustain high refining margins through 2027, driven by tighter product inventories and geopolitical tensions that restrict supply. The company’s ability to source diverse crude grades, including Venezuelan and Canadian, and export to constrained markets gives it a competitive advantage in a tightening market. These factors suggest a continued upside to VLO’s earnings outlook, with margin expansion likely to persist as global supply disruptions persist.

What did this article say?

UBS has increased its price objective for Valero Energy (VLO) from $355 to $450, citing a belief that refining margins will remain elevated for an extended period. The upgrade reflects a potential upside of nearly 17% from current levels and surpasses VLO’s all‑time high of $393. Analysts highlight Valero’s disciplined capital allocation and strong shareholder returns as key drivers of continued value creation. The rally is supported by global refining capacity constraints that have tightened fuel supplies. Investors should monitor margin trends and any changes in refining capacity that could impact VLO’s earnings outlook.

What did this article say?

Rising crude prices have increased input costs for refiners, but Valero Energy (VLO) benefits from a heavy‑crude advantage and flexible sourcing that keeps costs low. The company’s Gulf Coast refineries can purchase low‑cost crude from the U.S., Canada, and Venezuela, mitigating the impact of higher WTI prices. Demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel remains resilient, supporting robust refining margins. Overall, VLO is positioned to maintain strong profitability despite the higher crude price environment.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

100

BUY

Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.

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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

25 tracked managers · $27.84B combined position · 12 adding, 12 trimming, 1 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
BlackRock, Inc.	▼ Sell	25,143,225	8.94%	$6.55B	2026-08-07
Vanguard Group Inc	▼ Sell	37,647,983	13.38%	$6.13B	2026-01-29
FMR LLC (Fidelity)	▲ Buy	8,504,389	3.02%	$2.21B	2026-08-13
Morgan Stanley	▲ Buy	8,039,331	2.86%	$2.09B	2026-08-13
Geode Capital Management, LLC	▼ Sell	7,269,612	2.58%	$1.90B	2026-08-12
Norges Bank	▼ Sell	6,402,941	2.28%	$1.67B	2026-08-12
Bank of America Corp	▼ Sell	4,592,012	1.63%	$1.20B	2026-08-14
Northern Trust Corp	▲ Buy	3,269,044	1.16%	$851.39M	2026-08-13
Invesco Ltd.	▲ Buy	2,845,727	1.01%	$741.14M	2026-08-14
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	▼ Sell	2,639,835	0.94%	$687.52M	2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co	▼ Sell	2,273,090	0.81%	$605.37M	2026-08-12
AQR Capital Management LLC	▲ Buy	2,020,410	0.72%	$526.20M	2026-08-14
Susquehanna International Group, LLP	▼ Sell	1,797,506	0.64%	$468.14M	2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company	▲ Buy	1,564,861	0.56%	$407.55M	2026-08-14
Two Sigma Investments, LP	▲ Buy	1,381,085	0.49%	$359.69M	2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC	• Hold	1,219,064	0.43%	$317.49M	2026-09-02
Millennium Management LLC	▼ Sell	1,115,283	0.40%	$290.46M	2026-08-14
Wellington Management Group LLP	▼ Sell	694,975	0.25%	$181.00M	2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc	▲ Buy	675,822	0.24%	$176.01M	2026-08-03
Squarepoint Ops LLC	▲ Buy	412,512	0.15%	$107.43M	2026-08-14
AllianceBernstein L.P.	▼ Sell	355,884	0.13%	$87.93M	2026-08-14
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	▼ Sell	291,724	0.10%	$75.98M	2026-08-14
Bridgewater Associates, LP	▲ Buy	285,001	0.10%	$74.23M	2026-08-14
Gotham Asset Management, LLC	▲ Buy	260,471	0.09%	$67.84M	2026-08-14
Adage Capital Partners GP, L.L.C.	▲ Buy	249,600	0.09%	$65.01M	2026-08-14

Q2 2026 flow:4.06M sh bought ($1.06B)5.37M sh sold ($1.41B)net -1.31M sh (−$348.51M)

Congressional Trading Activity

4 disclosed trades · ~$32.0K est. traded value · 1 buys, 3 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
Gilbert Cisneros	House	CA31	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2026-01-09	2026-02-13
Gilbert Cisneros	House	CA31	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-08-06	2025-09-12
Rob Bresnahan	House	PA08	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-05-15	2025-06-09
Rob Bresnahan	House	PA08	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-04-08	2025-04-28

VLO·Valero Energy Corporation

EPS

Revenue

VLO Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into VLO?

What VLO's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of VLO's sector?

What is the options market pricing for VLO?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on VLO?

VLO Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

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News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Market Status

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Earnings Events

Economic News

VLO·Valero Energy Corporation

EPS

Revenue

VLO Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into VLO?

What VLO's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of VLO's sector?

What is the options market pricing for VLO?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on VLO?

VLO Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News