VLO|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $14.95 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $15.22 | $12.54 | -17.6% |
| Q1'26 | $7.96 | $4.22 | -47.0% |
| Q4'25 | $3.30 | $3.82 | +15.8% |
| Q3'25 | $3.05 | $3.66 | +19.9% |
| Q2'25 | $1.77 | $2.28 | +29.1% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $35.8B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $39.4B | $44.5B | +12.7% |
| Q1'26 | $36.3B | $32.4B | -10.8% |
| Q4'25 | $28.3B | $30.4B | +7.2% |
| Q3'25 | - | $32.2B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $29.9B | - |
Market Data
VLO Stock Snapshot
VLO is currently trading at $298.31, giving Valero Energy Corporation a market cap of 86.70B and a P/E ratio of 12.0. Today's range spans $291.45–$303.90, with shares opening at $298.50 and moving up $0.01 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 55/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 84/100.
Over the past year VLO has traded between $130.78 and $320.24 - the current price is +128.1% off the 52-week low and -6.8% from the high.
A HOLD read (55/100) for VLO at $298.31 (near 52-week highs) with bullish sentiment (84/100) tells the story of a large-cap Energy stock between identifiable trends. The current P/E ratio stands at 12.0. The 86.70B market cap keeps institutional interest alive; the 52-week range of $130.78–$320.24 keeps the trade interesting. HOLD signals here aren't an endpoint - they're a setup phase waiting for the right trigger.
Portfolio construction in Energy often uses large-cap names like VLO as tactical swing positions during neutral phases: cheap enough to overweight, liquid enough to exit quickly, and large enough to provide meaningful sector beta. The current 55/100 (HOLD) at $298.31 (near 52-week highs) and bullish sentiment (84/100) frame the position as a catalyst play within the $130.78–$320.24 annual range rather than a directional bet.
Company Insights: Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) stands as a significant player in the global energy landscape, primarily focused on the production and distribution of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's operational footprint spans refining crude oil into essential products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, complemented by a growing portfolio of renewable fuels, including renewable diesel and ethanol. This dual focus positions Valero to capitalize on both traditional energy demand and the accelerating transition towards more sustainable fuel sources. Its extensive distribution network and established brands, such as Valero and Texaco, underscore its market penetration across North America and Europe.
Recent financial performance indicates a robust uptrend in Valero's profitability, with accelerating Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth observed throughout fiscal year 2025. The company reported a substantial increase in EPS from $0.64 in Q4 2024 to $3.66 in Q3 2025, signaling strong operational execution and favorable market conditions. Revenue also demonstrated a positive trajectory, reaching $32.17 billion in Q3 2025 after a period of fluctuation, aligning with the improving EPS trend. Valero has consistently surpassed analyst EPS expectations across the last four reported quarters, highlighting its ability to deliver ahead of market forecasts.
Valero's strategic positioning is further enhanced by its expansion into renewable fuels, a segment benefiting from supportive tax credits and increasing demand for sustainable alternatives. This diversification strategy, coupled with strong performance in its core refining operations, provides a resilient business model. The company's ability to navigate volatile commodity markets, as evidenced by its consistent EPS beats, suggests effective risk management and market adaptation. Investors are keenly observing the sustainability of current refining margins, driven by crude oil prices, and Valero's continued investment in its renewable energy initiatives.
Refining Strength
Valero benefits from widening refining margins, driven by elevated crude oil prices.
The company consistently exceeds analyst EPS expectations, demonstrating operational resilience.
A diversified product mix includes gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, catering to broad transportation needs.
Renewable Fuels
Strategic investments in renewable diesel and ethanol plants position Valero for energy transition.
Supportive tax credits and growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) enhance this segment's outlook.
This diversification complements traditional refining, creating a more robust energy solutions portfolio.
Financial Momentum
Accelerating EPS growth throughout fiscal year 2025 indicates strong financial performance.
Revenue trends show an upward trajectory, aligning with improved profitability metrics.
Consistent EPS beats suggest effective operational management and market responsiveness.
Market Position
Valero operates a global distribution network across North America and Europe.
Established brands like Valero and Texaco ensure strong market recognition and customer loyalty.
The company's scale provides competitive advantages in sourcing and distribution within the oil and gas sector.
Positioning VLO
Valero Energy shares may warrant increased exposure during periods of expanding refining margins and strong demand for transportation fuels. Investors should consider adding to positions when the company demonstrates continued success in its renewable fuels segment and maintains its track record of exceeding earnings expectations. Conversely, a reduction in exposure could be considered if geopolitical events or significant shifts in energy policy lead to sustained compression of refining margins or hinder the growth trajectory of renewable fuel initiatives.
Key Metrics for VLO
Valero Energy's performance hinges on refining margins and its growing renewable fuels segment. Investors should monitor these key indicators to gauge operational success and future growth potential.
Refining Margin: Measures the difference between the cost of crude oil and the selling price of refined products. Widening margins benefit Valero; narrowing margins hurt profitability. This is a primary driver of Valero's earnings and stock performance.
Renewable Diesel Volume: Tracks the production and sales volume of Valero's renewable diesel. Increasing volumes indicate success in the growing sustainable fuels market. This segment is crucial for Valero's long-term growth and diversification strategy.
Throughput Volume: Represents the total amount of crude oil processed by Valero's refineries. Higher throughput generally means higher product sales and revenue. Consistent or growing throughput is a positive sign for Valero's core refining operations.
Ethanol Production: Measures the volume of ethanol produced by Valero's plants. Growth here indicates expansion in the biofuels market. This metric is important for Valero's renewable energy portfolio and its contribution to overall financial results.
Capital Expenditures: Tracks Valero's investment in property, plant, and equipment. Higher capex can signal growth initiatives like refinery upgrades or renewable fuel plant expansions. Investors watch capex to understand Valero's commitment to future growth and operational efficiency.
Risk Factors
Valero Energy's stock faces risks tied to volatile commodity prices, regulatory shifts in the energy sector, and the execution of its renewable fuel strategy.
- Crude Oil Prices
Valero's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in crude oil prices, which directly impact refining margins. A sharp decline in crude oil prices could compress margins and reduce earnings. Conversely, extreme price volatility can create uncertainty and impact demand.
- Refining Margins
The spread between the cost of crude oil and the selling price of refined products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) dictates Valero's refining margins. Narrowing margins due to oversupply or weak demand would hurt profitability. This risk materializes when refinery utilization rates are high or demand falters.
- Renewable Fuel Execution
Valero is investing in renewable diesel and ethanol, but success depends on market adoption, regulatory support, and operational efficiency. Delays or cost overruns in these projects could negatively impact future growth. Changes in tax credits or mandates could also affect profitability.
- Geopolitical Events
Global supply disruptions, political instability in oil-producing regions, or international conflicts can lead to sudden spikes in crude oil prices. Such events can increase Valero's input costs and potentially disrupt supply chains, impacting operational stability and profitability.
- Regulatory Changes
The energy sector is subject to evolving environmental regulations and fuel standards. Stricter regulations or changes in government incentives for renewable fuels could increase compliance costs or alter market dynamics. This risk is ongoing as policies adapt to climate change concerns.
VLO Competitive Positioning
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing on DailyIQ.
What Moves VLO Stock?
Valero Energy's stock performance is primarily driven by refining margins, influenced by crude oil prices and product demand. Its growing renewable fuels segment also plays an increasingly important role.
Refining Margins
Valero's core business is refining crude oil into transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel. The difference between the cost of crude oil and the selling price of refined products, known as the crack spread or refining margin, is a key profitability driver.
When crude oil prices are stable or falling while demand for fuels remains strong, Valero's refining margins expand, directly boosting earnings and supporting its stock price. Conversely, volatile or rising crude costs can compress margins and pressure the stock.
Renewable Fuels Growth
The company is strategically expanding its renewable diesel and ethanol production capacity. This segment benefits from government incentives and growing demand for sustainable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel.
Success in the renewable fuels sector enhances Valero's diversification and future growth prospects, potentially leading to higher valuations. Any setbacks or changes in policy impacting these initiatives could negatively affect investor sentiment.
Product Demand
Demand for Valero's refined products, particularly gasoline and diesel, is closely tied to economic activity and seasonal driving patterns across its operating regions in North America and Europe.
Robust consumer and industrial demand supports higher throughput at Valero's refineries and stronger pricing for its products, leading to improved financial results and stock performance. Weak economic conditions or reduced travel can dampen demand and hurt profitability.
Key insight: Valero's stock is a play on the refining spread and the energy transition. Investors should monitor crude oil dynamics and the growth trajectory of its renewable fuels business.
Analyst Price Targets for VLO
Wall Street's current consensus view on Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), based on the most recently tracked analyst coverage.
Reflects the most recently tracked analyst ratings for VLO and may lag real-time updates. Not a recommendation to buy or sell.
VLO Recent Earnings History
- Q4 2025
EPS: $3.82 actual vs $3.3 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $30,372M actual vs $28,322M estimate
- Q3 2025
EPS: $3.66 actual vs $3.05 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $32,168M actual
- Q2 2025
EPS: $2.28 actual vs $1.77 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $29,889M actual
- Q1 2025
EPS: $0.89 actual vs $0.48 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $30,258M actual
- Q4 2024
EPS: $0.64 actual vs $0.06 estimate (beat) · Revenue: $30,756M actual
Frequently Asked Questions About VLO
Is Valero Energy (VLO) stock a good investment right now?
Valero Energy (VLO) stock's attractiveness as an investment hinges on the outlook for refining margins and the company's strategic positioning in both traditional fuels and renewable energy. The company benefits from its scale and diversified product mix, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals, alongside a growing renewable diesel segment. Investors should consider the cyclical nature of the refining industry and Valero's ability to navigate volatile energy markets.
What drives Valero Energy (VLO) stock price?
The stock price of Valero Energy (VLO) is primarily influenced by global crude oil prices, refining margins, and demand for transportation fuels. Geopolitical events, seasonal demand patterns, and regulatory changes impacting the energy sector also play a significant role. Furthermore, the company's performance in its renewable fuels segment and its capital allocation strategies, such as share buybacks or dividend payments, can affect investor sentiment.
Does Valero Energy (VLO) pay a dividend?
Yes, Valero Energy (VLO) typically pays a quarterly dividend to its shareholders. The company has a history of returning capital to investors, and its dividend policy is often reviewed in light of its financial performance and market conditions. Investors seeking income should review the current dividend yield and payout history.
What are the risks of investing in Valero Energy (VLO) stock?
Investing in Valero Energy (VLO) carries several risks inherent to the oil and gas refining industry. These include significant price volatility of crude oil and refined products, potential for lower demand due to economic downturns or shifts towards alternative energy sources, and regulatory risks associated with environmental policies. Operational risks, such as refinery disruptions or accidents, can also impact performance.
What is Valero Energy's (VLO) investment thesis?
The investment thesis for Valero Energy (VLO) often centers on its position as a leading independent refiner with a diversified portfolio that includes a growing renewable diesel business. Its strategic locations, operational efficiency, and ability to capitalize on favorable refining spreads are key strengths. The company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks also forms part of its appeal.
How does Valero Energy (VLO) perform in different economic cycles?
Valero Energy (VLO) performance can be cyclical, often benefiting from periods of high demand and widening refining margins, which can occur during economic expansions. Conversely, during economic downturns, reduced demand for transportation fuels can pressure margins and profitability. The company's diversified operations, including renewable fuels, may offer some resilience against pure commodity price swings.
What is the valuation of Valero Energy (VLO) stock?
Valero Energy's (VLO) valuation is typically assessed using metrics like the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, enterprise value to EBITDA, and dividend yield, compared to industry peers and historical averages. Its current P/E ratio of approximately 27.64 suggests investors are paying a premium, potentially reflecting strong recent performance or future growth expectations. Analyzing these multiples in conjunction with refining margins and future earnings potential is crucial.
How is Valero Energy (VLO) positioned for the energy transition?
Valero Energy (VLO) is actively participating in the energy transition through its significant investments in renewable diesel and ethanol production. These renewable fuels offer lower carbon intensity alternatives to traditional transportation fuels. The company's strategy aims to leverage its existing infrastructure and expertise to capture growth in sustainable energy markets, complementing its core refining business.
What is the market sentiment surrounding Valero Energy (VLO) stock?
Market sentiment for Valero Energy (VLO) can fluctuate based on refining margins, crude oil prices, and broader economic outlooks. Recent news highlights suggest periods of strong share price momentum, but also instances where the stock has slid despite market gains. Investors often watch for analyst ratings and the company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates.
How does Valero Energy (VLO) manage its debt and capital expenditures?
Valero Energy (VLO) manages its debt through strategic issuance and repayment, as evidenced by recent senior notes issuances for general corporate purposes. The company balances capital expenditures between maintaining and improving its refining assets, expanding its renewable fuels capacity, and returning capital to shareholders. Its financial strategy aims to maintain a strong balance sheet while investing in growth opportunities.
Learn More
Advanced Chart Analysis: Scaling, Volume, and Comparative Charting Explained A comprehensive guide to advanced chart construction including arithmetic vs logarithmic scales, dual y-axes, multi-line comparisons, and volume-based charting techniques.
Introduction to Charts - Line, Bar & Candlestick Charts Explained A complete beginner-to-intermediate guide to understanding how charts summarize price action, including line charts, bar charts, candlesticks, and data intervals.
Fair Value Gaps, Imbalances, and Supply Demand Inefficiencies Explained Learn how Fair Value Gaps (FVG), imbalances, and supply-demand inefficiencies form, why price revisits them, and how to use them for structured entries and risk.
What Are Bollinger Bands and How to Read Them Learn how Bollinger Bands measure volatility, identify breakouts, and highlight overextended price conditions.
What Are Order Blocks? Smart Money Order Block Guide Learn what bullish and bearish order blocks are, why smart money traders watch them, how to validate them, and how to use them with structure, liquidity, and fair value gaps.
Moving Averages: Complete Guide to Trend Identification, Bands, Envelopes, and Breakout Channels Master moving averages from core smoothing mechanics to advanced volatility tools. Learn SMA vs EMA, crossover signals, whipsaws, envelopes, Bollinger/Keltner/STARC bands, Donchian breakouts, and how institutions confirm trends and filter false signals.
Recent News Coverage
Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).