CARR·Carrier Global Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

18.4% 4th pct

Below its peak

-34.1%

vs 200-day average

-11.6%

Up days (1y)

50%

Carrier Global Corporation is currently running 18.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CARR's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 4th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 30.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CARR is trading -34.1% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -23.4%, and the deepest was -37.4% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -11.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 15th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year CARR closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 7 years of records, CARR finished the month higher 4 of 7 times, with a median return of +0.0% and an average of -1.3%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +8.0% on average, its weakest September at -3.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CARR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 95 of 1,651 sessions (5.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.8% and -8.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CARR moved an average of 2.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -1.0% and a largest of -5.2%.

All figures computed from 1,652 daily closes between 2020-03-19 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CARR's own 7-year history, not a peer group or index.