DailyIQ
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Sector:IndustrialsAll sectors
Last updated 7 minutes ago

RDW·Redwire Corporation

$.
-. (-.%)
After Hours
High
$10.62
Open
$10.44
Market Cap
2.43B
52W High
$26.64
Low
$10.02
P. Close
$10.19
P/E
-
52W Low
$4.87
Fwd P/E
-24.83
DailyIQ Est.
$16.74
Technical Score (1D)
36
SELL
News Sentiment
50
MIXED
Redwire shares fell 28.8% over the past month, a decline driven by broader market volatility and sector concerns, as highlighted in the 36.6‑hour‑ago report. The drop reflects investors’ reassessment of earnings expectations and sentiment, with analysts noting that the company has yet to achieve sustained profitability. In the same week, Redwire secured a contract to deliver its Penguin Mk2.5 VTOL Uncrewed Aerial System to the Taiwan Coast Guard, a development that could add a new revenue stream and counterbalance the negative sentiment. The company also amended its credit agreement in late June and early July, lifting revolving commitments to $50 million and prepaying $40 million of term loans, which improves liquidity but also signals a tightening balance sheet. Earlier in July, Redwire announced an at‑market sale program that could raise up to $500 million, a move that has raised dilution concerns among shareholders. These factors together suggest that the next 1–10 trading days will hinge on how the company’s earnings guidance reflects the impact of the Taiwan contract and the revised credit terms. Traders should watch for the upcoming earnings release for updates on revenue from the Taiwan deal, any changes to guidance, and clarification on the company’s capital structure. Additionally, monitoring the progress of the Penguin Mk2.5 deployment schedule and any cost escalations will help gauge the contract’s true contribution to earnings. Finally, keeping an eye on the company’s cash burn trajectory and potential future fundraising will be critical given the negative free cash flow margin reported in recent analyses. The interplay between the defense contract win, credit adjustments, and dilution risk will shape RDW’s short‑term valuation and trading dynamics.
Earnings Summary
Redwire Corporation is a provider of essential space infrastructure and solutions, serving governmental and commercial clients with critical technologies such as avionics, sensors, and solar array solutions. Operating within the Industrials sector, specifically the Aerospace & Defense industry, Redwire is positioned to benefit from the increasing global demand for space-based capabilities. The company's offerings extend to advanced software for digital engineering and simulation, microgravity payloads, and in-space manufacturing. Examining Redwire's recent earnings, the company has shown a mixed performance in the last two reported quarters compared to the prior two. In Q1 2026, Redwire reported an actual EPS of -0.18 against an estimate of -0.1602, and revenue of $96.97 million against an estimate of $104.65 million. This followed Q4 2025, where actual EPS was -0.35 against an estimate of -0.1906, with revenue of $108.79 million beating the estimate of $103.39 million. Prior to this, Q3 2025 saw actual EPS of -0.191 against an estimate of -0.13, and revenue of $103.43 million. Q2 2025 reported actual EPS of -1.41 against an estimate of -0.15, with revenue at $61.76 million. Historically, Redwire's year-over-year revenue growth has shown variability, with significant increases noted in some periods, such as the 58% revenue increase reported for Q1 2026. The company has demonstrated a pattern of missing EPS estimates, particularly in Q2 2025 and Q4 2025, while revenue performance has been more varied, including a beat in Q4 2025. This suggests a trajectory where revenue generation is present, but profitability relative to analyst expectations remains a challenge. Recent news indicates positive developments for Redwire, including a $15 million follow-on order from the US Army for its Stalker UAS and a multiyear contract with a NATO country for its Penguin Mk3 UAS, valued in the high eight figures. These awards highlight continued demand for Redwire's aerial solutions within military training and allied forces' modernization programs. Additionally, Redwire reported a robust Q1 2026 with significant revenue growth and a strong book-to-bill ratio, suggesting potential margin improvement and a positive outlook supported by a strong backlog. Looking ahead, investors will want to watch for Redwire's continued progress towards profitability, particularly in light of recent acquisitions contributing to margin improvement. Key will be the company's ability to maintain its revenue growth trajectory and convert backlog into consistent financial performance. Monitoring further contract awards and the integration of new systems will also be important indicators for future earnings.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-1.61$-1.18$-0.75$-0.32$0.11Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$-0.15 - -
Q1'26$-0.16$-0.18-12.4%
Q4'25$-0.19$-0.35-83.6%
Q3'25$-0.13$-0.19-46.9%
Q2'25$-0.15$-1.41-840.0%
Q1'25$-0.35$-0.09+74.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$54M$70M$85M$100M$116MQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$108M - -
Q1'26$105M$97M-7.3%
Q4'25$103M$109M+5.2%
Q3'25 - $103M -
Q2'25 - $62M -
Q1'25 - $61M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

RDW Stock Snapshot

RDW is currently trading at $10.20, giving Redwire Corporation a market cap of 2.43B. Today's range spans $10.02–$10.62, with shares opening at $10.44 and moving up $0.01 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 36/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 50/100.

Over the past year RDW has traded between $4.87 and $26.64 - the current price is +109.4% off the 52-week low and -61.7% from the high. 15 analysts cover the stock with a Buy consensus and a mean 12-month target of $15.67 (range $7.00–$24.00), implying upside of +53.6%.

The data doesn't make a strong case for RDW right now: 36/100 technical score (HOLD), neutral sentiment (50/100), price $10.20 (in the lower half of its 52-week range). For a small-cap with 2.43B in Industrials market cap, this kind of setup often leads to rangebound or drifting price action - the kind of environment where holding the stock has opportunity cost and the exit is easier said than done in thin markets. Annual range: $4.87–$26.64.

For RDW (small-cap, Industrials, 2.43B market cap), the HOLD technical reading (36/100) and neutral news sentiment (50/100) at $10.20 (in the lower half of its 52-week range) describe a stock where the cost of patience is higher than in large-cap equivalents — thin float dynamics mean that time spent waiting for a catalyst can erode position value without the passive bid support that larger names receive. The $4.87–$26.64 annual range defines the structural stakes.