DailyIQ
|
Sector:UtilitiesAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

VST·Vistra Corp.

$151.83
-10.53 (-6.49%)
After Hours
High
$163.28
Open
$159.53
Market Cap
54.45B
52W High
$217.10
Low
$149.66
P. Close
$151.83
P/E
24.54
52W Low
$132.66
Fwd P/E
14.87
DailyIQ Est.
$233.55
Inst. Ownership
44.7%
Short Interest
3.12%
Days to Cover
2.2
Div. Yield
0.56%
Next Ex-Div
~Dec 21
Div. Growth
6+ yrs
Technical Score (1D)
11
BEARISH
News Sentiment
46
MIXED
On Oct 13, Vistra Inc. released its second‑quarter 2026 earnings results and made the full conference call transcript public, noting that no new guidance or major corporate actions were announced. That same day, a Wall Street analyst reported that Vistra’s shares had fallen nearly 20% over the past year amid a broader Texas power sell‑off, but the analyst projected a 90% upside potential based on the company’s emerging AI‑driven nuclear initiatives. The analyst’s bullish view highlighted a debate among investors over whether Vistra’s future lies in low‑cost power or high‑growth AI nuclear projects. The earnings call provided a routine update on financial performance and operational highlights, while the analyst’s commentary suggested that the negative market reaction may be temporary if the AI strategy materializes. Together, the two reports illustrate contrasting perspectives on Vistra’s trajectory, with the earnings update confirming current performance and the analyst’s forecast pointing to potential upside from new technology initiatives.
LOW TARGET
$106 -30.0%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$210 +38.9%
10 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$305 +101.5%
14 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$106.00 - $305.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
7/15/2/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$233.55 (+54.3%)
Sector
Utilities
Industry
Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Website
vistracorp.com
Symbol
VST
Description
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated energy provider operating primarily within the United States, offering a comprehensive suite of services from power generation to retail energy supply. The company's core business revolves around delivering electricity and natural gas to a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients across numerous states and the District of Columbia. Vistra's substantial generation capacity, totaling approximately 41,000 megawatts, is diversified across a portfolio of energy sources, encompassing natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage. This integrated model, supported by wholesale energy activities and commodity risk management, allows Vistra to serve approximately 5 million customers. Established in 1882 and headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vistra has evolved into a key player in the US energy market.
Bought (1Y)
8,665 shares
$1.2M
Sold (1Y)
155,754 shares
$24.6M
Moldovan Kristopher E.EVP and CFO
Sell20,000 shares2026-10-07
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail
Sell22,222 shares2026-10-06
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail
Sell7,841 shares2026-09-08
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail
Sell28,826 shares2026-09-08
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail
Sell7,777 shares2026-09-08
View full insider trading history →
73/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
5.4%
Revenue CAGR
15.8%
Current Ratio
0.78x
Debt / Equity
3.70x
Return on Equity
18.5%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated U.S. energy provider that delivers electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across multiple states and the District of Columbia. Operating as an independent power producer, Vistra’s 41,000‑megawatt generation portfolio spans natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, positioning it as a key player in the utilities sector. In Q4 2024, Vistra reported revenue of $4.037 billion and EPS of $1.14, falling short of the $1.447 estimate but still higher than the prior quarter’s $0.93 loss. The company’s Q1 2025 revenue dipped to $3.933 billion and EPS turned negative at $‑0.93, reflecting a sharp decline from the $1.004 estimate. However, Q2 2025 saw a rebound with revenue of $4.25 billion and EPS of $0.81, close to the $1.004 forecast, while Q3 2025 revenue surged to $4.971 billion and EPS rose to $1.75, again near the $1.956 estimate. Over the past four quarters, Vistra has consistently posted revenue growth, with a 23% increase from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, yet EPS has fluctuated, missing estimates in two of the last four quarters. Historically, the company has maintained steady YoY revenue expansion, often exceeding analyst expectations, while EPS has shown volatility tied to capital expenditures and regulatory costs. Recent news highlights a potential $4 billion federal loan to upgrade nuclear plants, which could provide a tailwind for long‑term earnings, and a reaffirmed outperform rating from Sanford C. Bernstein, underscoring analyst confidence.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-1.46$-0.31$0.83$1.97$3.12Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$2.59 - -
Q3'25$1.96$1.75-10.5%
Q2'25$1.00$0.81-19.4%
Q1'25$0.68$-0.93-237.6%
Q4'24$1.45$1.14-21.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.7B$4.3B$4.9B$5.5B$6.1BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$5.8B - -
Q3'25 - $5.0B -
Q2'25 - $4.3B -
Q1'25 - $3.9B -
Q4'24 - $4.0B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

VST Stock Snapshot

BEARISH11/100
$151.40−$0.43 (0.3%)
Market cap
54.45B
P/E ratio
24.5
Day range
$149.66 – $163.28
News sentiment
46/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$210.25 (+38.9%)
Consensus
Buy · 26 analysts
52-week range+14.1% off low · -30.3% from high
$132.66$217.10
Price $151.40 DailyIQ Est. $233.55

VST is on the weaker side of its setup, with little confirmation for a reversal yet. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into VST?

RICH

At today's price, Vistra Corp. needs to grow free cash flow about 45.4% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 11.57% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 6.3% a year, so the market is asking for 39.1 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis VST looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
45.4%
Historical FCF CAGR
6.3%
Growth gap
+39.1 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
11.57%
Beta
1.70

Behaviour On Record

What VST's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
46.4% 75th pct
Below its peak
-24.6%
vs 200-day average
+4.7%
Up days (1y)
47%

Vistra Corp. is currently running 46.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against VST's own 10 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 75th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 33.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

VST is trading -24.6% below its running peak. Across 9 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -23.6%, and the deepest was -50.2% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +4.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 45th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year VST closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 11 years of records, VST finished the month higher 7 of 11 times, with a median return of +0.5% and an average of +2.1%. Its strongest month historically has been September at +5.7% on average, its weakest February at -1.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: VST has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 154 of 2,519 sessions (6.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +25.9% and -14.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,520 daily closes between 2016-10-05 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against VST's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of VST's sector?

Vistra Corp. sits in the Utilities sector, currently ranked 6th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#6 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
55

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for VST?

CallsPuts

For Vistra Corp.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.73), with at-the-money implied volatility around 50.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $154.79–$167.25.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.73
ATM implied volatility
50.8%
Total open interest
84,356
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±3.9% ($154.79–$167.25)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on VST?

BMO Capital most recently reiterated its rating on Vistra Corp. to Outperform on Oct 5, 2026 with a price target of $210 (from $231). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BMO Capital — Outperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 5, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedOutperform$231 → $210
Oct 1, 2026BernsteinReiteratedOutperform$181
Aug 24, 2026MizuhoInitiatedOutperform$169
Aug 21, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$212 → $227
Aug 19, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$222 → $221
Jul 28, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$233 → $227
Jul 28, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$208 → $212
Jul 27, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$230 → $222
Jul 15, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Outperform$293 → $298
Jun 16, 2026BernsteinInitiatedOutperform$181
May 4, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$253 → $230
Apr 30, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$240 → $231

Peers & ETF holders

VST peers & ETF holders

Utilities - Independent Power ProducersMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

46/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MIXED

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
Vistra Inc. (VST) lost nearly 20% of its market value over the past year, reflecting a broader market sell‑off of its Texas power assets. Despite this decline, a Wall Street analyst projected a 90% upside potential, citing the company’s emerging AI‑driven nuclear initiatives. The article highlighted a disconnect between the stock’s price performance and the analyst’s bullish stance, suggesting that investors are debating whether VST’s future lies in low‑cost power or high‑growth AI nuclear projects. The commentary implied that the negative market reaction may be temporary if the AI strategy materializes. Overall, the piece presents a mixed view, with a negative market trend countered by a single analyst’s optimistic forecast.
What did this article say?
Vistra (NYSE:VST) released its second‑quarter 2026 earnings results on October 13. The company provided a full transcript of the earnings conference call, detailing financial performance and operational highlights. No new guidance or significant corporate actions were disclosed during the call. The release serves as a routine update for investors and analysts tracking VST’s quarterly performance.
What did this article say?
Vistra (VST) was highlighted as a key player in the emerging grid‑scale battery storage sector, which is becoming cheaper than many natural gas turbines used by data centers. The company’s integrated power production, retail supply, and grid‑scale storage operations position it to benefit from the shift toward long‑duration power storage. The article noted that Vistra’s projects directly tap into the growing demand for advanced battery technology, suggesting a positive outlook for the company within this trend.
What did this article say?
On October 8, Vistra Corp. (VST) fell 6.35% to $156.14, outpacing the S&P 500’s 0.47% decline. The drop came despite a 10.34% monthly gain and a positive earnings outlook, with a projected November 6 EPS of $2.89 and full‑year earnings of $9.04 per share. Analysts noted a 71.86% year‑over‑year earnings growth and a 27.35% revenue increase, suggesting underlying strength. Investors will monitor the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of these forecasts. The market reaction reflects a short‑term negative bias despite the favorable fundamentals.
What did this article say?
On October 6, 2026, Vistra executive Scott A. Hudson sold 22,222 shares of VST for $3,558,631, as disclosed in a Form 4 filing. The sale reduced his direct holdings to 308,915 shares, representing a significant portion of the company’s equity. The transaction was executed at market value and does not indicate any immediate operational or financial changes for Vistra. However, the sizable divestiture may signal a shift in insider confidence or a need for liquidity. The filing was made public through the SEC’s electronic database.
What did this article say?
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a $4.2 billion loan to Vistra Corp (VST) to upgrade three nuclear plants—Perry, Davis‑Besse, and Beaver Valley—through uprates that increase power output. The funding is intended to provide reliable electricity for AI data centers, aligning with federal clean‑energy goals. The loan is expected to support VST’s financial position and could help stabilize its share price after a 30% decline this year.
What did this article say?
Vistra (VST) stock rose 11% after the U.S. Energy Department announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to fund upgrades at its Pennsylvania and Ohio nuclear plants. The funding will preserve nearly 4 GW of baseload capacity and add 433 MW of new nuclear output, supporting the company’s long‑term power generation portfolio. The investment is expected to strengthen Vistra’s earnings and position it as a key player in the U.S. nuclear market.
What did this article say?
Vistra (VST) announced a US$4 billion government loan to upgrade its nuclear fleet, which analysts view as a positive catalyst for long‑term generation and cash flows. The loan is expected to lower capital costs and improve the company’s risk profile, potentially supporting higher earnings in the future. Investors are weighing whether the current share price already reflects this upside or if further upside remains. The article highlights the need to assess Vistra’s earnings power against the new funding backdrop.
What did this article say?
Vistra Corp. reported a 30% rise in second‑quarter adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher energy prices and efficient dispatch of its nuclear and fossil assets. The company’s August 7 earnings release underscored a robust cash‑flow outlook, with less immediate financing required compared to Talen Energy. Analysts noted that Vistra’s growth strategy and lower debt servicing needs position it favorably for shareholder returns. The comparison with Talen’s accelerated share repurchase highlighted Vistra’s stronger cash‑generation capability for investors.
What did this article say?
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to Vistra Energy (VST) to extend and upgrade three existing nuclear plants—Beaver Valley, Davis‑Besse, and Perry. The funding will preserve nearly 4 gigawatts of current capacity and add 433 megawatts of new power, extending the plants’ operating lives by about 20 years. The project is expected to supply electricity to more than three million homes across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and the PJM region, supporting VST’s long‑term revenue stream.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

11
BEARISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.
Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $23.05B combined position · 18 adding, 7 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
Vanguard Group Inc▲ Buy41,588,78412.39%$6.71B2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.▲ Buy29,064,4658.66%$4.61B2026-08-07
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▼ Sell14,160,2024.22%$2.25B2026-08-13
Geode Capital Management, LLC▲ Buy9,037,3952.69%$1.43B2026-08-12
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy8,880,7302.65%$1.41B2026-08-13
Norges Bank▲ Buy5,811,2011.73%$921.83M2026-08-12
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy4,742,3241.41%$752.27M2026-08-14
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy3,713,8351.11%$589.13M2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co▼ Sell3,252,8810.97%$528.20M2026-08-12
Northern Trust Corp▼ Sell3,022,0470.90%$479.39M2026-08-13
Bank of America Corp▼ Sell2,952,4960.88%$468.35M2026-08-14
Capital World Investors▲ Buy2,574,2600.77%$408.35M2026-08-12
Appaloosa LP▲ Buy2,215,2720.66%$351.41M2026-08-14
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▼ Sell1,864,5910.56%$295.88M2026-08-13
Janus Henderson Group plc▼ Sell1,691,3150.50%$254.25M2026-05-18
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.▲ Buy1,478,4650.44%$234.53M2026-08-14
Wellington Management Group LLP▲ Buy1,400,9240.42%$222.23M2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company▲ Buy1,180,5300.35%$187.27M2026-08-14
Corvex Management LP▲ New1,020,2280.30%$161.84M2026-08-14
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▲ Buy1,011,5570.30%$160.46M2026-08-14
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.▲ Buy848,4130.25%$134.58M2026-08-14
Citigroup Inc▲ Buy810,8610.24%$128.63M2026-08-03
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.▲ Buy810,3710.24%$128.55M2026-08-14
Renaissance Technologies LLC▼ Sell765,2750.23%$121.40M2026-08-13
Bridgewater Associates, LP▲ Buy751,6950.22%$119.24M2026-08-14
Q2 2026 flow:8.81M sh bought ($1.40B)6.43M sh sold ($1.04B)net +2.37M sh (+$360.32M)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
11 disclosed trades · ~$1.05M est. traded value · 7 buys, 4 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Julia LetlowHouseLA05▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-02-172026-03-12
Nancy PelosiHouseCA11▲ Buy$100K - $250K2026-01-162026-01-23
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-10-312025-11-21
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-10-302025-11-21
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-10-302025-11-21
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-06-172025-08-13
Jefferson ShreveHouseIN06▼ Sell$15K - $50K2025-04-072025-05-08
Julie JohnsonHouseTX32▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-04-012025-05-14
Jefferson ShreveHouseIN06▲ Buy$15K - $50K2025-03-052025-04-11
Julie JohnsonHouseTX32▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-02-122025-03-12
Nancy PelosiHouseCA11▲ Buy$500K - $1.0M2025-01-142025-01-17
View full congressional trading history →

Discover More

AES
The AES Corporation
$14.94
-0.07%
EIX
Edison International
$55.44
+0.02%
ETR
Entergy Corporation
$104.50
-0.02%
CQP
Cheniere Energy Partners, LP
$62.26
+0.02%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
$102.04
-0.04%
WCN
Waste Connections Inc.
$156.82
+0.01%
ED
Consolidated Edison, Inc.
$109.60
-0.01%
EMA
Emera Incorporated
$46.96
-0.09%
XLU
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund
$41.70
-0.07%
DTE
DTE Energy Company
$126.60
-1.35%