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VST·Vistra Corp.

$163.44
+2.94 (+1.83%)
High
$164.78
Open
$154.77
Market Cap
53.15B
52W High
$217.10
Low
$154.02
P. Close
$163.44
P/E
23.95
52W Low
$132.66
Fwd P/E
15.41
DailyIQ Est.
$235.55
Inst. Ownership
54.9%
Short Interest
2.99%
Days to Cover
2.0
Technical Score (1D)
77
BULLISH
News Sentiment
76
BULLISH
On Oct 7, Vistra (VST) stock rose 11 percent after the U.S. Energy Department announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to fund upgrades at its Pennsylvania and Ohio nuclear plants, a move that was reported to preserve nearly 4 GW of baseload capacity and add 433 MW of new nuclear output. The same day, an analyst piece noted that the loan could strengthen Vistra’s long‑term generation and cash flows, prompting a review of whether the company’s recent pullback had been priced into its share price. On Oct 6, Vistra reported a 30 percent increase in second‑quarter adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher energy prices and efficient dispatch of its nuclear and fossil assets, and highlighted a robust cash‑flow outlook with lower financing needs. That day, the Department of Energy also announced the $4.2 billion loan, stating it would extend the operating lives of the three plants by about 20 years and power more than three million homes. The loan announcement was also cited as a catalyst for a sharp rise in both Vistra and Centrus Energy shares, with investors interpreting the development as a positive signal for the nuclear sector.
LOW TARGET
$106 -35.1%
1 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$212 +29.9%
12 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$305 +86.6%
13 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$106.00 - $305.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
7/15/2/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$235.55 (+44.1%)
Sector
Utilities
Industry
Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Website
vistracorp.com
Symbol
VST
Description
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated energy provider operating primarily within the United States, offering a comprehensive suite of services from power generation to retail energy supply. The company's core business revolves around delivering electricity and natural gas to a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients across numerous states and the District of Columbia. Vistra's substantial generation capacity, totaling approximately 41,000 megawatts, is diversified across a portfolio of energy sources, encompassing natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage. This integrated model, supported by wholesale energy activities and commodity risk management, allows Vistra to serve approximately 5 million customers. Established in 1882 and headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vistra has evolved into a key player in the US energy market.
Bought (1Y)
8,665 shares
$1.2M
Sold (1Y)
113,532 shares
$17.7M
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail
Sell7,841 shares2026-09-08
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail
Sell28,826 shares2026-09-08
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail
Sell7,777 shares2026-09-08
Moldovan Kristopher E.EVP and CFO
Sell20,000 shares2026-09-08
BURKE JAMES APresident and CEO
Buy4,465 shares2026-09-01
View full insider trading history →
73/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
5.4%
Revenue CAGR
15.8%
Current Ratio
0.78x
Debt / Equity
3.70x
Return on Equity
18.5%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated U.S. energy provider that delivers electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across multiple states and the District of Columbia. Operating as an independent power producer, Vistra’s 41,000‑megawatt generation portfolio spans natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, positioning it as a key player in the utilities sector. In Q4 2024, Vistra reported revenue of $4.037 billion and EPS of $1.14, falling short of the $1.447 estimate but still higher than the prior quarter’s $0.93 loss. The company’s Q1 2025 revenue dipped to $3.933 billion and EPS turned negative at $‑0.93, reflecting a sharp decline from the $1.004 estimate. However, Q2 2025 saw a rebound with revenue of $4.25 billion and EPS of $0.81, close to the $1.004 forecast, while Q3 2025 revenue surged to $4.971 billion and EPS rose to $1.75, again near the $1.956 estimate. Over the past four quarters, Vistra has consistently posted revenue growth, with a 23% increase from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, yet EPS has fluctuated, missing estimates in two of the last four quarters. Historically, the company has maintained steady YoY revenue expansion, often exceeding analyst expectations, while EPS has shown volatility tied to capital expenditures and regulatory costs. Recent news highlights a potential $4 billion federal loan to upgrade nuclear plants, which could provide a tailwind for long‑term earnings, and a reaffirmed outperform rating from Sanford C. Bernstein, underscoring analyst confidence.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-1.46$-0.31$0.83$1.97$3.12Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$2.59 - -
Q3'25$1.96$1.75-10.5%
Q2'25$1.00$0.81-19.4%
Q1'25$0.68$-0.93-237.6%
Q4'24$1.45$1.14-21.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.7B$4.3B$4.9B$5.5B$6.1BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$5.8B - -
Q3'25 - $5.0B -
Q2'25 - $4.3B -
Q1'25 - $3.9B -
Q4'24 - $4.0B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

VST Stock Snapshot

BULLISH77/100
$163.44+$2.94 (1.8%)
Market cap
53.15B
P/E ratio
23.9
Day range
$154.02 – $164.78
News sentiment
76/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$212.25 (+29.9%)
Consensus
Buy · 26 analysts
52-week range+23.2% off low · -24.7% from high
$132.66$217.10
Price $163.44 DailyIQ Est. $235.55

The setup on Vistra Corp. is the constructive kind - confirmation across timeframes, not one lone indicator. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into VST?

RICH

At today's price, Vistra Corp. needs to grow free cash flow about 42.3% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 11.29% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 6.3% a year, so the market is asking for 36.0 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis VST looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
42.3%
Historical FCF CAGR
6.3%
Growth gap
+36.0 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
11.29%
Beta
1.70

Behaviour On Record

What VST's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
31.3% 46th pct
Below its peak
-32.8%
vs 200-day average
-6.7%
Up days (1y)
47%

Vistra Corp. is currently running 31.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against VST's own 10 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 46th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 33.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

VST is trading -32.8% below its running peak. Across 9 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -23.6%, and the deepest was -50.2% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -6.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 20th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year VST closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 10 years of records, VST finished the month higher 6 of 10 times, with a median return of +0.5% and an average of +0.7%. Its strongest month historically has been September at +5.7% on average, its weakest February at -1.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: VST has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 153 of 2,512 sessions (6.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +25.9% and -14.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,513 daily closes between 2016-10-05 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against VST's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of VST's sector?

Vistra Corp. sits in the Utilities sector, currently ranked 9th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#9 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
64

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for VST?

CallsPuts

For Vistra Corp.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-09, 2 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.57), with at-the-money implied volatility around 53.5%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.8% move by that expiry — a range of about $157.88–$170.28.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-09)
0.57
ATM implied volatility
53.5%
Total open interest
34,189
Expected move by 2026-10-09
±3.8% ($157.88–$170.28)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on VST?

BMO Capital most recently reiterated its rating on Vistra Corp. to Outperform on Oct 5, 2026 with a price target of $210 (from $231). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BMO Capital — Outperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 5, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedOutperform$231 → $210
Oct 1, 2026BernsteinReiteratedOutperform$181
Aug 24, 2026MizuhoInitiatedOutperform$169
Aug 21, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$212 → $227
Aug 19, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$222 → $221
Jul 28, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$233 → $227
Jul 28, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$208 → $212
Jul 27, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$230 → $222
Jul 15, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Outperform$293 → $298
Jun 16, 2026BernsteinInitiatedOutperform$181
May 4, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$253 → $230
Apr 30, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$240 → $231

VST Competitive Positioning

Vistra Corp. (VST) is tracked alongside these names in Utilities - Independent Power Producers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

VST is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

76/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
Vistra (VST) stock rose 11% after the U.S. Energy Department announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to fund upgrades at its Pennsylvania and Ohio nuclear plants. The funding will preserve nearly 4 GW of baseload capacity and add 433 MW of new nuclear output, supporting the company’s long‑term power generation portfolio. The investment is expected to strengthen Vistra’s earnings and position it as a key player in the U.S. nuclear market.
What did this article say?
Vistra (VST) announced a US$4 billion government loan to upgrade its nuclear fleet, which analysts view as a positive catalyst for long‑term generation and cash flows. The loan is expected to lower capital costs and improve the company’s risk profile, potentially supporting higher earnings in the future. Investors are weighing whether the current share price already reflects this upside or if further upside remains. The article highlights the need to assess Vistra’s earnings power against the new funding backdrop.
What did this article say?
Vistra Corp. reported a 30% rise in second‑quarter adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher energy prices and efficient dispatch of its nuclear and fossil assets. The company’s August 7 earnings release underscored a robust cash‑flow outlook, with less immediate financing required compared to Talen Energy. Analysts noted that Vistra’s growth strategy and lower debt servicing needs position it favorably for shareholder returns. The comparison with Talen’s accelerated share repurchase highlighted Vistra’s stronger cash‑generation capability for investors.
What did this article say?
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to Vistra Energy (VST) to extend and upgrade three existing nuclear plants—Beaver Valley, Davis‑Besse, and Perry. The funding will preserve nearly 4 gigawatts of current capacity and add 433 megawatts of new power, extending the plants’ operating lives by about 20 years. The project is expected to supply electricity to more than three million homes across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and the PJM region, supporting VST’s long‑term revenue stream.
What did this article say?
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a $4.2 billion loan to Vistra Corp to fund nuclear plant upgrades in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The loan is expected to extend the operating life of Vistra’s plants and add 433 MW of new capacity, boosting electricity output by more than 10%. Investors interpreted the development as a positive catalyst for VST and Centrus Energy, which supplies nuclear fuel, leading to a sharp rise in both stocks on Tuesday.
What did this article say?
Vistra Corp received a $4.2 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy to fund upgrades and expansions across its nuclear fleet in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas. The financing will preserve nearly 4 GW of baseload power and add more than 10 % new capacity, extending the service life of existing plants by 20 years. The loan supports the DOE’s American nuclear renaissance initiative, positioning Vistra to increase its nuclear generation output and strengthen its long‑term asset base.
What did this article say?
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a conditional $4.2 billion loan to Vistra Corp. to fund 433 MW of nuclear uprates and modernization at its Ohio and Pennsylvania plants. The financing will preserve approximately 4 GW of existing nuclear capacity, supporting the company’s 2.6 GW power purchase agreement with Meta. The upgrade plan is aimed at meeting growing electricity demand in the PJM region without new transmission infrastructure.
What did this article say?
Vistra Corp. (VST) has become one of the most searched stocks on Zacks.com, reflecting growing investor curiosity. Over the past month, VST shares fell 3%, lagging the S&P 500 composite and the broader Utility‑Electric Power sector, which declined 6.3%. Analysts focus on earnings estimate revisions to gauge future value, but no definitive upside or downside catalyst has emerged. The company’s recent performance suggests a cautious outlook, with no clear material change in fundamentals. Investors are monitoring earnings guidance and sector trends for potential shifts.
What did this article say?
Vistra (VST) obtained a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion from the U.S. Department of Energy to finance upgrades and modernization of its Beaver Valley, Davis‑Besse, and Perry nuclear plants. The funding will preserve nearly 4 GW of baseload capacity, add 433 MW of new nuclear output, and support roughly 3,000 project‑related jobs. The commitment also includes an option to finance future uprates at Vistra’s Comanche Peak plant in Texas, extending the plants’ operations by 20 years.
What did this article say?
Vistra (VST) filed a formal objection with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission against PJM’s Interim Resource Adequacy Service proposal, arguing the framework is discriminatory and legally flawed. The company contended that the proposal could distort future investment signals in the PJM region, potentially harming Vistra’s long‑term growth prospects. The filing added regulatory uncertainty to an already volatile market, prompting investors to reassess the risk profile of VST shares. Despite a historically strong long‑term track record, the stock’s recent performance has cooled as concerns over regulatory risk have intensified.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

77
BULLISH
Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.
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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $26.60B combined position · 17 adding, 6 trimming, 2 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
Vanguard Group Inc▲ Buy41,588,78412.83%$6.71B2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.▲ Buy29,064,4658.97%$4.61B2026-08-07
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▼ Sell14,160,2024.37%$2.25B2026-08-13
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▲ Buy9,365,2572.89%$1.49B2026-08-14
Geode Capital Management, LLC▲ Buy9,037,3952.79%$1.43B2026-08-12
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy8,880,7302.74%$1.41B2026-08-13
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy6,602,8242.04%$1.05B2026-08-14
Lone Pine Capital LLC▲ Buy6,187,5851.91%$930.18M2026-05-15
Norges Bank▲ Buy5,811,2011.79%$921.83M2026-08-12
Citadel Advisors LLC• Hold4,983,1391.54%$790.48M2026-09-02
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy3,713,8351.15%$589.13M2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co▼ Sell3,486,3811.08%$566.12M2026-08-12
Northern Trust Corp▼ Sell3,022,0470.93%$479.39M2026-08-13
Bank of America Corp▼ Sell2,952,4960.91%$468.35M2026-08-14
Capital World Investors▲ Buy2,574,2600.79%$408.35M2026-08-12
Appaloosa LP▲ Buy2,215,2720.68%$351.41M2026-08-14
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.▲ Buy1,924,4710.59%$305.28M2026-08-14
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▼ Sell1,864,5910.58%$295.88M2026-08-13
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.▲ Buy1,676,2650.52%$265.91M2026-08-14
Janus Henderson Group plc• Hold1,691,3150.52%$254.25M2026-05-18
Wellington Management Group LLP▲ Buy1,400,9240.43%$222.23M2026-08-14
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.▲ Buy1,354,6130.42%$214.88M2026-08-14
Millennium Management LLC▼ Sell1,303,8090.40%$206.82M2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company▲ Buy1,244,7300.38%$197.45M2026-08-14
Artisan Partners Limited Partnership▲ Buy1,200,9280.37%$193.75M2026-02-17
Q2 2026 flow:10.32M sh bought ($1.64B)6.16M sh sold ($992.10M)net +4.16M sh (+$644.27M)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
11 disclosed trades · ~$1.05M est. traded value · 7 buys, 4 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Julia LetlowHouseLA05▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-02-172026-03-12
Nancy PelosiHouseCA11▲ Buy$100K - $250K2026-01-162026-01-23
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-10-312025-11-21
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-10-302025-11-21
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-10-302025-11-21
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-06-172025-08-13
Jefferson ShreveHouseIN06▼ Sell$15K - $50K2025-04-072025-05-08
Julie JohnsonHouseTX32▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-04-012025-05-14
Jefferson ShreveHouseIN06▲ Buy$15K - $50K2025-03-052025-04-11
Julie JohnsonHouseTX32▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-02-122025-03-12
Nancy PelosiHouseCA11▲ Buy$500K - $1.0M2025-01-142025-01-17
View full congressional trading history →

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