DailyIQ
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Sector:UtilitiesAll sectors
Last updated 1 hour ago

VST·Vistra Corp.

$.
+. (+.%)
High
$164.13
Open
$158.91
Market Cap
49.29B
52W High
$219.82
Low
$157.84
P. Close
$156.27
P/E
22.00
52W Low
$132.66
Fwd P/E
14.26
Mean Target
-
Technical Score (1D)
59
BUY
News Sentiment
71
BULLISH
Morgan Stanley has raised its price target on Vistra (VST) to $212, maintaining an Overweight rating, signaling continued analyst confidence driven by recent strategic wins. This follows VST's Q1 earnings beat, the acquisition of Cogentrix, and long-term power purchase agreements with Meta, alongside a credit rating upgrade from Fitch. These developments are seen as key growth drivers, potentially offsetting headwinds from an accident at its Moss Landing battery storage facility, which led to discontinued operations at two units. Despite this operational setback and recent underperformance relative to the utility sector over the past six months, analysts maintain a highly bullish outlook, suggesting underlying factors are driving positive sentiment. Traders should monitor further commentary on the integration of Cogentrix and the impact of the Moss Landing incident on future operational capacity. The market will be watching how these growth initiatives and operational challenges balance out in the coming trading days.
Earnings Summary
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated energy provider operating across the United States, offering a broad range of services from power generation to retail energy supply. The company's operations encompass electricity and natural gas delivery to residential, commercial, and industrial clients, supported by a substantial generation capacity of approximately 41,000 megawatts across various energy sources including natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage. Headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vistra serves roughly 5 million customers and is a significant entity within the Utilities sector, specifically the Independent Power Producers industry. In its most recent reported quarters, Vistra demonstrated a mixed performance in earnings per share (EPS) while showing revenue growth. For Q3 2025, EPS was $1.75 against an estimate of $1.96, and revenue was $4.97 billion. This followed Q2 2025, where EPS was $0.81 against an estimate of $1.00, with revenue at $4.25 billion. Prior to this, Q1 2025 saw an EPS of -$0.93 against an estimate of $0.68, and revenue of $3.93 billion, and Q4 2024 reported EPS of $1.14 against an estimate of $1.45, with revenue at $4.04 billion. The company has shown a pattern of revenue growth in recent quarters, but EPS has missed estimates in the last four reported periods, indicating a deceleration in EPS performance relative to analyst expectations. Looking at its historical trajectory, Vistra has experienced revenue increases in its reported quarters, though EPS has consistently fallen short of analyst estimates in the last four periods. This pattern suggests a potential disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line profitability as perceived by the market. Recent news highlights Vistra's attractive dividend yield of 9% and its strategic positioning for growth in the AI-driven energy market, with strong projected earnings growth over the next decade. The company's first-quarter performance exceeded revenue expectations, with adjusted EBITDA surging 20% year-over-year, driven by its generation business and bolstered by the Energy Harbor acquisition, which diversifies its model and mitigates retail segment headwinds. Investors will be watching for continued execution on growth initiatives, the impact of its buyback program, and further updates on the integration of Energy Harbor in the upcoming quarters.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-1.46$-0.31$0.83$1.97$3.12Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$2.59 - -
Q3'25$1.96$1.75-10.5%
Q2'25$1.00$0.81-19.4%
Q1'25$0.68$-0.93-237.6%
Q4'24$1.45$1.14-21.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.7B$4.3B$4.9B$5.5B$6.1BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$5.8B - -
Q3'25 - $5.0B -
Q2'25 - $4.3B -
Q1'25 - $3.9B -
Q4'24 - $4.0B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

VST Stock Snapshot

VST is currently trading at $163.99, giving Vistra Corp. a market cap of 49.29B and a P/E ratio of 22.0. Today's range spans $157.84–$164.13, with shares opening at $158.91 and moving up $7.72 (4.9%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 59/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 71/100.

Over the past year VST has traded between $132.66 and $219.82 - the current price is +23.6% off the 52-week low and -25.4% from the high.

The quality factor scores well for Vistra Corp. (VST) even in a HOLD phase - at 49.29B in Utilities market cap with a 59/100 technical read (HOLD) and bullish sentiment (71/100), the stock's balance sheet and earnings stability attract defensive allocators who don't need a mixed signal to hold the position. (P/E: 22.0) Price: $163.99 (in the lower half of its 52-week range). Range: $132.66–$219.82.

In neutral phases, large-cap Utilities names like VST are often where sector rotation debates play out quietly — at 49.29B in capitalization, the stock receives incremental allocation from funds reducing mega-cap exposure without the volatility of a small-cap entry. The 59/100 (HOLD) and bullish sentiment (71/100) at $163.99 (in the lower half of its 52-week range) describe a stock that is being considered rather than avoided.

Recent News Coverage

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