The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

SELL

News Sentiment

BULLISH

12th Street Asset Management Company LLC has disclosed a significant investment in The Progressive Corporation (PGR), holding approximately $12 million in the company's stock. This increased stake indicates a positive outlook from the asset manager on PGR's future performance and market position. The move suggests institutional confidence in the insurer's operational strategy and growth prospects. Investors will be watching for further commentary from 12th Street Asset Management regarding their conviction in Progressive's strategy.

PGR|Company Info

Sector

Financial Services

Industry

Insurance - Property & Casualty

Exchange

NYQ

Country

United States

Website

progressive.com

Symbol

PGR

Description

Progressive Corporation is a U.S.-based insurance provider primarily focused on personal and commercial auto insurance. The company's core business involves underwriting policies for a broad range of vehicles, including cars, motorcycles, recreational vehicles, and commercial trucks, alongside specialized offerings for property and casualty coverage. Progressive differentiates itself by offering insurance solutions through diverse channels, including independent agencies, online platforms, and direct phone sales. This multi-channel distribution strategy allows the company to reach a wide customer base. Founded in 1937, Progressive Corporation has established a long-standing presence in the insurance industry, offering a comprehensive suite of products and related services.

PGR|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Progressive Corporation is a U.S.-based insurance provider specializing in personal and commercial auto insurance, offering a wide range of vehicle coverage and property and casualty solutions through independent agencies, online, and direct sales. Operating within the Financial Services sector, specifically the Property & Casualty Insurance industry, Progressive has a long-standing presence since its founding in 1937. In its most recent reported quarters, Progressive demonstrated mixed performance against analyst expectations. For Q2 2025, the company reported EPS of $4.8765, exceeding the estimate of $4.40411, and revenue of $20.076 billion. However, in Q3 2025, EPS came in at $4.0511, falling short of the $5.04689 estimate, despite revenue reaching $21.384 billion. This follows a pattern where Q1 2025 saw EPS of $4.654 against an estimate of $4.75263, and Q4 2024 reported EPS of $4.0802, beating the $3.5593 estimate. Historically, Progressive has shown a tendency to beat EPS estimates in approximately half of its recent quarters, with revenue data not consistently available for comparison against estimates. Recent news indicates that Wells Fargo and BMO Capital have made minor adjustments to their price targets, maintaining neutral to slightly positive ratings, following Q1 2026 results which showed a 6% increase in net premiums written and a 10% rise in net income, though the combined ratio widened. Analysts maintain a mixed outlook with a consensus 'Hold' rating and an average 12-month price target of $238.39. Moving forward, investors will be watching for how Progressive manages its combined ratio and its ability to navigate industry headwinds such as increasing catastrophe losses and rising liability costs, which were noted as key factors influencing the sector's outlook.

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EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q1'26	$3.75	-	-
Q3'25	$5.05	$4.05	-19.7%
Q2'25	$4.40	$4.88	+10.7%
Q1'25	$4.75	$4.65	-2.1%
Q4'24	$3.56	$4.08	+14.6%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q1'26	$21.2B	-	-
Q3'25	-	$21.4B	-
Q2'25	-	$20.1B	-
Q1'25	-	$22.2B	-
Q4'24	-	$18.1B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

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Market Data

PGR Stock Snapshot

PGR is currently trading at $201.03, giving The Progressive Corporation a market cap of 116.15B and a P/E ratio of 10.1. Today's range spans $197.00–$202.44, with shares opening at $199.00 and moving up $2.25 (1.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 18/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 66/100.

Over the past year PGR has traded between $191.75 and $289.96 - the current price is +4.8% off the 52-week low and -30.7% from the high.

The path of least resistance for The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is currently lower - 18/100 (SELL), bullish sentiment (66/100), price $201.03 (near 52-week lows within $191.75–$289.96). The current P/E ratio stands at 10.1. At 116.15B in Financial Services market cap, this large-cap name is in the zone where portfolio risk managers - not just traders - are making decisions. Trimming positions on technical deterioration is standard practice at this size, and the current setup gives them a clear rationale to act.

The current SELL phase for PGR (18/100) at $201.03 (near 52-week lows) suggests that the market is discounting either a fundamental deterioration or a sector headwind that hasn't fully appeared in the earnings line yet. Sentiment at 66/100 (bullish) confirms that news flow is not providing a counternarrative. At 116.15B in Financial Services capitalization, PGR has the liquidity for institutional exits to be orderly — but orderly doesn't mean shallow within the $191.75–$289.96 range.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

66/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

An analysis of Progressive (PGR) stock reveals a strong historical performance, outperforming the broader market by an average of 2.86% annually over the last five years. An initial $100 investment made five years ago would have grown to approximately $201.22. This highlights the significant impact of compounded returns on investment growth over extended periods.

What did this article say?

Progressive's financial performance, particularly its earnings per share (EPS) growth, presents a compelling case for investor consideration. The company's ability to consistently increase its EPS suggests effective operational management and a healthy trajectory. This trend indicates potential for sustained value creation and profitability, making PGR an interesting prospect in the current market.

What did this article say?

Progressive (PGR) is being evaluated against its property and casualty insurance industry peers following Q1 earnings. The article highlights the cyclical nature of the P&C sector, influenced by market conditions like 'hard' and 'soft' markets, and the impact of interest rates on investment yields. A key secular headwind discussed is the increasing frequency and severity of catastrophe losses due to climate change, alongside pressures from social inflation on liability costs.

What did this article say?

Progressive (PGR) shares experienced a decline of 1.45% in the latest trading session, trailing the broader market indices. The company faces an anticipated 22.13% year-over-year decrease in earnings per share for the upcoming quarter, although revenue is projected to rise. Annual estimates suggest a slight dip in earnings but continued revenue growth for the fiscal year.

What did this article say?

Progressive Corporation (PGR) reported an 11% year-over-year increase in April earnings per share, reaching $1.86. This growth was primarily fueled by a 6% rise in net premiums written and a significant jump in investment income, which swung from a net loss to a gain of $402 million. While total revenues climbed 13%, the combined ratio deteriorated by 530 basis points to 90.2 due to increased expenses, including higher losses and adjustment expenses.

What did this article say?

Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan has updated their rating on Progressive (PGR). The firm maintained an Equal-Weight rating while increasing the price target from $218 to $222. This adjustment suggests a slightly more optimistic outlook on the stock's valuation.

What did this article say?

Wells Fargo has updated its outlook on Progressive, raising the price target to $222 from $218 while reiterating an Equalweight rating. This adjustment suggests a cautiously optimistic view on the stock's near-term prospects. The firm's stance indicates a belief that the current valuation reflects fair value, with limited upside potential from the revised target.

What did this article say?

Joshua Shanker, an analyst at B of A Securities, has reaffirmed a Buy rating for Progressive (PGR). However, the firm has lowered its price objective for the stock to $320 from a previous $325. This indicates continued conviction in the stock's upside potential despite a slightly reduced valuation target.

What did this article say?

BMO Capital has slightly adjusted its price target for Progressive (PGR) to $220 from $221, while reiterating its Market Perform rating. This minor PT revision suggests a cautious stance from the analyst firm. The average rating for PGR among analysts is currently overweight, with a mean price target of $234.14.

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

PGR·The Progressive Corporation

EPS

Revenue

PGR Stock Snapshot

News Sentiment Analysis

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News Sentiment Analysis

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