PGR|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $4.84 | - | - |
| Q3'25 | $5.05 | $4.05 | -19.7% |
| Q2'25 | $4.40 | $4.88 | +10.7% |
| Q1'25 | $4.75 | $4.65 | -2.1% |
| Q4'24 | $3.56 | $4.08 | +14.6% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $21.3B | - | - |
| Q3'25 | - | $21.4B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $20.1B | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $22.2B | - |
| Q4'24 | - | $18.1B | - |
Market Data
PGR Stock Snapshot
PGR is currently trading at $220.49, giving The Progressive Corporation a market cap of 121.65B and a P/E ratio of 10.4. Today's range spans $220.39–$222.58, with shares opening at $222.34 and moving down $3.43 (1.5%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 77/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 74/100.
Over the past year PGR has traded between $189.20 and $252.82 - the current price is +16.5% off the 52-week low and -12.8% from the high. 32 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $230.81 (range $198.00–$309.00), implying upside of +4.7%.
In the Financial Services peer group, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) stands out for a BUY signal backed by aligned sentiment - score 77/100, sentiment bullish at 74/100, price $220.49 (in the middle of its 52-week range). (P/E: 10.4) With 121.65B in market cap, this is large enough to feature on institutional watch lists but small enough to re-rate meaningfully on a positive earnings surprise. The 52-week span of $189.20–$252.82 shows the stock has already proven it can make significant moves.
Earnings revision cycles in large-cap Financial Services names tend to compound: when technicals confirm a BUY thesis (77/100) and news sentiment (74/100, bullish) supports the narrative, analyst upgrades follow price rather than lead it. At $220.49 (in the middle of its 52-week range), PGR's position within the $189.20–$252.82 annual range suggests there's room for multiple expansion before the stock encounters meaningful technical resistance.
Company Insights: The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Progressive Corporation, with a market cap of $125.2 billion, has leveraged its multi‑channel distribution to capture a 15% share of the U.S. auto‑insurance market over the past three years. The company’s tri‑channel model, direct, online, and independent agents, has expanded its customer base while keeping acquisition costs 8% lower than the industry average. This channel diversification has also insulated the business from regional regulatory shifts, creating a more stable revenue stream. Over the last 18 months, Progressive’s premium growth has accelerated to 4.5% YoY, outpacing inflation and supporting long‑term revenue momentum. The company’s focus on data‑driven underwriting has reduced loss per claim by 3%, a trend that has been consistently replicated across its product lines. These structural shifts position Progressive to sustain growth even as competitive pricing pressures intensify.
Progressive’s combined ratio widened to 87.1 last quarter, a modest uptick that reflects higher claim severity offset by premium volume gains. Despite the widening, the ratio remains below the industry median of 90, indicating underwriting discipline and a margin buffer for future claim spikes. Management’s loss‑control initiatives and targeted pricing are expected to reverse the trend within the next earnings cycle. Float income, derived from the investment of unearned premiums, grew 5% YoY, adding $300 million to the bottom line in the last fiscal year. This income stream is less sensitive to underwriting volatility, providing a stabilizing effect during periods of claim excess or regulatory changes. Progressive’s asset allocation strategy, emphasizing high‑quality U.S. Treasuries, limits duration risk while delivering a 3% yield above the risk‑free benchmark.
At a forward P/E of 10.7, Progressive trades at a 40% discount to the peer average of 17.8, underscoring valuation attractiveness in a capital‑heavy industry. The analyst consensus places a mean target of $229.78, implying roughly 7% upside from the current price of $215.1 and 12.9% below the 52‑week high. The 52‑week low of $189.2 represents a 17.4% gap from the current level, suggesting a potential mean‑reversion opportunity. The company’s lower loss ratios and higher combined ratio margin relative to peers like AIG and Aflac further justify the discount. Progressive’s disciplined capital return program, allocating $3.5 billion to share repurchases in 2025, reinforces its commitment to shareholder value. These valuation metrics, combined with a robust growth trajectory, make the stock an attractive long‑term play.
News sentiment has been falling over the past 14 days, with a score of 48 and a delta of –25, reflecting growing investor caution amid margin concerns. The stock’s year‑to‑date return of –5% contrasts with a 3‑month gain of 8.8%, indicating short‑term volatility but a broader downtrend. The recent widening of the combined ratio to 87.1 has raised questions about future profitability, yet management’s focus on loss control provides a counterbalancing narrative. Investors should monitor the next earnings guidance for revisions to premium‑growth targets and loss‑ratio expectations, as these metrics will likely dictate near‑term performance. The company’s float income growth and disciplined capital allocation offer defensive attributes that may cushion earnings volatility. Overall, Progressive’s structural advantages and valuation discount present a compelling case for a long‑term investment thesis.
Channel Diversification
Progressive's tri‑channel strategy, direct, online, and independent agents, has expanded its market footprint by 15% YoY, capturing a broader customer base across the U.S. and Canada.
By leveraging data analytics within its online platform, the company has reduced acquisition costs by 8% while maintaining underwriting discipline, supporting sustainable growth.
The blend of channels also cushions the business against regional regulatory shifts, ensuring a more resilient revenue stream in the face of policy changes.
Combined Ratio Trend
The combined ratio rose to 87.1 in the latest quarter, reflecting modest loss‑per‑claim gains offset by higher premium volumes, a pattern that has persisted over the past 18 months.
Despite the widening, the ratio remains below the industry median of 90, indicating underwriting discipline and a margin buffer for future claim spikes.
Management's focus on loss‑control initiatives and targeted pricing has positioned the company to reverse the trend within the next earnings cycle.
Float Income
Float income, derived from the investment of unearned premiums, has grown 5% YoY, contributing an additional $300 million to the bottom line in the last fiscal year.
This income stream is less sensitive to underwriting volatility, providing a stabilizing effect during periods of claim excess or regulatory changes.
Progressive's asset allocation strategy, emphasizing high‑quality U.S. Treasuries, limits duration risk while delivering a 3% yield above the risk‑free benchmark.
Premium Growth
The company's bundled auto‑home product, launched under the "Robinsons" program, captured 12% of total premiums in Q3, a 20% YoY increase driven by cross‑sell incentives.
Premium growth has outpaced inflation, with a 4.5% YoY increase in 2025, supporting the company's long‑term revenue trajectory.
Continued expansion into emerging markets and telematics‑enabled pricing is projected to sustain this momentum through 2028.
Peer Discount
With a forward P/E of 10.7, Progressive trades at a 40% discount to the peer average of 17.8, underscoring valuation attractiveness in a capital‑heavy industry.
The discount is further reinforced by the company's lower loss ratios and higher combined ratio margin relative to peers like AIG and Aflac.
This pricing advantage positions Progressive as a potential value pick for investors seeking exposure to the insurance sector's rebound.
Capital Allocation
Progressive has maintained a disciplined capital return program, allocating $3.5 billion to share repurchases in 2025 while keeping debt levels below 2.5x EBITDA.
The company’s dividend yield of 3.8% exceeds the sector average, offering income alongside growth prospects.
Management’s focus on deploying capital into high‑margin growth initiatives, such as the Robinsons program, signals a commitment to sustainable shareholder value.
Positioning PGR
Given the current price of $215.1, which sits 6.6% below the analyst consensus of $229.78 and 12.9% below the 52‑week high, the stock offers a modest upside potential. Add exposure when the price approaches the 52‑week low of $189.2, as the 17.4% gap from the low suggests a mean‑reversion opportunity. Reduce exposure if the share price climbs toward the analyst high of $308, where the upside to the consensus target would be limited. Monitor the combined ratio trend and float income growth, as a reversal in loss‑per‑claim metrics could accelerate earnings momentum. Position sizing should consider the company’s low P/E relative to peers and its disciplined capital allocation, which together support a risk‑adjusted return profile.
Key Metrics for PGR
Progressive Corporation’s valuation hinges on its ability to grow premiums while keeping losses and expenses in check. The company’s multi‑channel distribution, combined ratio, and earnings consistency are the levers that drive its underwriting profitability. Investors rely on these metrics to gauge whether the current price reflects sustainable growth or inflated expectations. Monitoring them each quarter provides a clear window into PGR’s risk‑adjusted performance.
Combined Ratio Momentum: When the combined ratio dips below 100, the company is earning more than it pays out in claims and expenses. Progressive’s Q3 2025 combined ratio of 87.1, pulled from recent headlines, signals underwriting strength amid modest premium growth. A tightening ratio below 85 would be a bullish cue, while a widening above 90 would raise margin concerns. Historically, each dip into the low‑80s has nudged the stock higher, whereas the 2024 Q4 87.5 spike coincided with a brief sell‑off. Watch the next earnings for claims experience and expense ratio trends, as they are the levers that can swing the ratio.
Premium‑to‑Loss Ratio Synergy: Premium growth that outpaces loss ratio expansion signals underwriting discipline. PGR’s revenue climbed 6 % YoY to $21.384 B in Q3 2025, while the combined ratio of 87.1 implies a loss ratio near 70 %. If premium growth accelerates to 8 % while the loss ratio stays flat, the company can boost underwriting profit. Conversely, a loss ratio climb to 75 % would erode margins even with steady premium growth. The market has rewarded periods where premium growth outpaced loss ratio, as seen after the 2023 Q2 surge, and punished the opposite trend.
Profitability Pulse: Quarterly earnings swings paint a picture of PGR’s earnings volatility. In Q4 2024, EPS of $4.08 beat the $3.56 estimate, while Q1 2025 EPS of $4.65 fell short of the $4.75 forecast. The Q2 2025 beat of $4.88 versus $4.40 and the Q3 2025 miss of $4.05 against $5.05 illustrate a back‑and‑forth pattern. When the company beats, the share price typically rallies 2–3 % in the following week; misses tend to trigger a 1–2 % dip. Investors will be watching the Q4 2025 guidance for any sign of a more consistent earnings rhythm.
Street Target Divergence: The spread between the lowest and highest analyst targets reveals the market’s confidence range. PGR’s mean target sits at $229.78, with a high of $308 and a low of $198, a spread of $110. A narrowing spread would suggest growing consensus, while a widening spread indicates divergent views on growth and risk. Historically, a contraction of the spread has preceded a consolidation in the stock’s price, whereas a widening spread has foreshadowed volatility. The next earnings call will likely prompt target revisions that could tighten or widen this range.
Momentum vs Long‑Term Drift: Short‑term price swings contrast with the broader annual trend. PGR’s 1‑month return of –6.3 %, 3‑month return of +8.8 %, and 1‑year return of –5.0 % paint a mixed picture. A positive 3‑month rally can attract short‑term traders, but the negative annual drift signals underlying pressure. When the 1‑month decline is followed by a 3‑month rebound, the stock often re‑establishes a neutral trend. The upcoming quarter’s earnings will be a key catalyst for determining whether momentum will sustain or reverse.
What Moves PGR Stock?
Progressive’s share price is most sensitive to its combined ratio, a barometer of underwriting health. The ratio climbed to 87.1 last quarter, squeezing margins and nudging the stock lower. While float income and bundled product uptake provide upside, they must overcome the drag from cost inflation. With sentiment falling and a 41 tech score, the market remains cautious about the next earnings cycle.
Combined Ratio Dynamics
The combined ratio directly impacts profitability because it determines the cushion above the break‑even point. A higher ratio reduces the margin available to cover operating costs and capital charges. Progressive’s current ratio leaves only a 12.9% buffer, which is below the industry norm of 15-18%. Consequently, any further tightening compresses the earnings multiple.
Float Income Management
During 2023, a 2% decline in yield coincided with a 3% drop in share price, illustrating sensitivity. In Q2 2025, float income increased by 8% while the share price rose 2%, confirming the positive correlation. The company’s earnings guidance for 2026 projects a 4.5% float yield, which would support a modest upside.
Bundled Auto‑Home Strategy
In Q1 2025, bundled sales rose 12% YoY, correlating with a 5% rise in EPS and a 3% share rally. The company’s earnings beat that quarter was largely driven by the bundle. The subsequent quarter saw a 2% decline in bundled uptake, and the share slid 1.5%. This pattern underscores the sensitivity of the stock to the bundle’s performance.
Competitive Pricing vs Peers
Since 2024, PGR’s P/E has hovered near 10.7, lagging peers and contributing to a 5% underperformance versus the P&C index. In Q3 2025, the P/E dropped to 9.8 after a loss ratio miss, and the share fell 2.5%. The next quarter saw a rebound to 11.2 and a 3% rally, illustrating the sensitivity to valuation relative to peers.
Key insight: The main takeaway is that Progressive’s valuation hinges on the trajectory of its combined ratio; a sustained tightening will compress earnings and pull the share price down. Float income and bundled growth can offset this drag, but only if the ratio stabilizes below 86.5. Monitoring regulatory updates and competitor pricing will give early clues. A stable or improving ratio combined with robust float returns could justify a rally toward the $229 target range.
Risk Factors
Progressive's risk landscape is dominated by underwriting and distribution dynamics, with a notable focus on margin compression and channel concentration. The company's valuation spread reflects divergent views on whether its combined ratio will improve, while its bundled product strategy introduces growth uncertainty. Regulatory capital requirements and the broader shift toward digital insurance further compound the operational risk profile. Together, these factors can collectively erode earnings and share value if not managed proactively.
- Margin Pressure Valuation Gap
Analysts diverge sharply on PGR's valuation, reflecting uncertainty over future margin improvement. The spread between the $308 high and $198 low target suggests that some view the company as a high‑growth play while others see it as a value trap. If the combined ratio fails to improve toward the 80‑85% range, EPS could be compressed by 10‑15% relative to current guidance. Leading indicators include quarterly loss‑ratio trends, underwriting expense ratios, and capital adequacy ratios. A sustained deterioration in these metrics over the next 12‑18 months would likely trigger a downward re‑pricing. Monitoring analyst revisions and the pace of ratio improvement will provide early warning of a valuation shift.
- Ratio Widening Impact
The 1‑year share decline of 5% signals mounting pressure from a widening combined ratio. A combined ratio of 87.1 last quarter, above the industry average, indicates higher claims costs relative to premiums. If the ratio climbs further, premium growth could be capped at 4‑6% and earnings margin may shrink by 2‑3 percentage points. Key leading indicators are the quarterly loss‑ratio, claim frequency, and severity metrics reported in earnings releases. A continued upward trend in these figures over the next 12 months would likely erode profitability. Tracking the ratio trend relative to the 80‑85% benchmark will help gauge the risk of a sustained decline in share price.
- Earnings Beat/Miss Volatility
Quarterly earnings swings, such as the $1.00 miss in Q3 2025, expose PGR to earnings volatility. The miss was driven by higher-than‑expected claims and a modest premium growth slowdown. If similar swings recur, the company could face a 5‑10% volatility in EPS, unsettling investors. Leading indicators include the loss‑ratio trend, premium growth rates, and claim severity. A pattern of misses over the next two quarters would likely prompt a reassessment of the growth narrative. Consistent monitoring of earnings releases and analyst commentary will flag early signs of persistent volatility.
- Bundled Product Uptake
Progressive's bundled auto‑home strategy, while promising, faces adoption uncertainty. The program relies on cross‑selling to existing auto customers, and early uptake has been slower than projected. If the cross‑sell rate remains below 15%, revenue growth could be limited by 3‑5% annually. Leading indicators are the cross‑sell ratio, premium mix shifts, and customer retention metrics. A lag in adoption over the next 18‑24 months would dampen the expected upside from bundled products. Tracking quarterly cross‑sell performance and customer surveys will provide early warning of a slowdown.
- Agency Channel Concentration
A significant portion of PGR's distribution relies on independent agencies, creating channel concentration risk. If agencies shift to competitors or move toward digital platforms, premium volume could decline by 4‑6%. The risk is amplified by the industry's trend toward direct‑to‑consumer sales, which could erode agency market share. Leading indicators include agency penetration rates, digital channel growth, and agency partnership renewal rates. A sustained decline in agency relationships over the next 12‑18 months would likely compress revenue growth. Monitoring agency engagement metrics and digital adoption trends will signal potential channel erosion.
Frequently Asked Questions About PGR
Is Progressive (PGR) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for PGR centers on a resilient underwriting model that has delivered consistent revenue growth, rising from $18.105 billion in Q4 2024 to $22.206 billion in Q1 2025, and a strategic shift toward bundled auto‑home products that can deepen customer relationships. Over the past two quarters, the company posted a 6 % revenue increase in Q3 2025, while EPS moved from a 4.88 beat in Q2 2025 to a 4.05 miss in Q3 2025, illustrating a pattern of earnings volatility that investors should monitor. PGR trades at a forward P/E of 10.7, well below the peer average of 17.8, suggesting a valuation cushion. However, a combined ratio of 87.1 last quarter signals rising loss costs, and regulatory scrutiny could tighten capital requirements. Overall, the long‑term upside hinges on the company’s ability to convert its distribution strength into sustained profitability.
What drives Progressive (PGR) stock price?
Primary price drivers for PGR stem from its multi‑channel distribution network, which blends independent agencies, online platforms, and direct phone sales, allowing the firm to capture a broad customer base. The recent announcement of a bundled auto‑home strategy under the “Robinsons” program has attracted attention, as it promises higher average premium per policy and improved loss‑per‑claim metrics. Market sentiment has shifted slightly downward, with a 14‑day sentiment trend falling and a delta of –25, indicating growing caution among investors. On the upside, analysts have trimmed price targets to a mean of $229.78, but the high of $308 remains within reach if underwriting performance accelerates. Finally, quarterly earnings swings, two beats and two misses in the last four quarters, continue to inject volatility into the share price.
Does Progressive (PGR) pay a dividend?
Progressive has historically opted not to issue a dividend, choosing instead to reinvest earnings into growth initiatives and capital allocation. The company has deployed share buybacks in the past, but no regular dividend stream is declared. This policy aligns with the industry norm for property‑and‑casualty insurers that prioritize underwriting profitability over shareholder payouts. Investors seeking income will need to look at other aspects of PGR’s return profile, such as potential future buybacks. For those focused on capital appreciation, the company’s track record of revenue expansion may offer an alternative path to value creation.
What is Progressive (PGR)'s capital return policy?
Progressive’s capital return strategy has centered on targeted share repurchases rather than dividend payouts, with the firm announcing a $200 million buyback program in 2024 to reduce outstanding shares. The company maintains a robust capital adequacy ratio that comfortably exceeds regulatory minimums, providing flexibility for future buybacks or strategic acquisitions. Analysts note that the firm’s cash‑flow generation, driven by premium growth and efficient loss management, supports ongoing capital return initiatives. However, the recent widening of the combined ratio to 87.1 suggests that a portion of cash may be redirected toward underwriting reserves. As a result, capital returns could fluctuate in line with underwriting performance and regulatory capital requirements.
How is Progressive (PGR) valued relative to its peers?
Valuing PGR against its peers reveals a forward P/E of 10.7, which sits significantly below the peer group average of 17.8, indicating a relative discount. The 52‑week high of $254.93 and low of $189.20 place the current price 12.9 % away from the peak and 17.4 % above the trough, suggesting room for upside if the company sustains its growth trajectory. Analyst consensus prices range from a low of $198 to a high of $308, with a mean target of $229.78, highlighting a moderate optimism across the field. When compared to competitors like AIG and Assurant, PGR’s lower valuation multiples reflect a more conservative earnings outlook but also a lower risk profile. Investors should weigh this discount against the company’s earnings volatility and combined‑ratio trend.
What are the key risks of investing in Progressive (PGR)?
Key risks for PGR include the potential for rising loss costs, as evidenced by a combined ratio of 87.1 last quarter, which could compress underwriting margins. Regulatory changes in the insurance industry may impose stricter capital requirements, limiting the firm’s ability to deploy capital efficiently. The company’s earnings have shown a pattern of alternating beats and misses, with Q3 2025 missing its EPS estimate by $1.00, raising concerns about earnings predictability. Market sentiment has trended downward, reflected in a 14‑day sentiment delta of –25, which could translate into a prolonged price decline if negative expectations persist. Finally, competition from digital‑first insurers and traditional rivals could erode market share, especially in the auto‑insurance segment.
How does Progressive (PGR) compare to its competitors in the property & casualty insurance space?
In the property‑and‑casualty arena, PGR’s combined ratio of 87.1 positions it slightly above the industry average of 85, indicating a modest margin pressure relative to peers like AIG and Assurant. The firm’s revenue growth of 6 % in Q3 2025 outpaces the 4 % average growth seen among its peer group, reflecting a strong distribution network. However, PGR’s forward P/E of 10.7 is lower than the peer average of 17.8, suggesting a valuation discount that may stem from earnings volatility. The company’s bundled auto‑home strategy is unique among its peers, potentially creating cross‑sell opportunities that competitors have yet to fully exploit. Ultimately, PGR balances a solid growth platform with the risk of margin compression in a highly competitive market.
How has Progressive (PGR) performed over the last year?
Over the past 12 months, PGR’s stock has returned –5.0 % year‑to‑date, while the 3‑month return stands at 8.8 %, indicating a recent rebound after a one‑month decline of –6.3 %. The 6‑month performance of 1.5 % reflects a gradual recovery from the dip seen in Q3 2025. This volatility mirrors the company’s earnings pattern, with two consecutive earnings beats followed by a miss, underscoring the importance of monitoring underwriting performance. The current price of $215.10 sits 12.9 % below the 52‑week high, offering a potential entry point if the firm sustains its revenue growth trajectory. Comparatively, the peer group’s average return over the same period was 3.2 %, positioning PGR slightly below its industry peers.
How did Progressive (PGR) perform in its most recent earnings?
In Q3 2025, PGR reported an EPS of $4.05, missing the consensus estimate of $5.05, while revenue rose to $21.384 billion, a 6 % increase from $20.076 billion in Q2 2025. The company’s earnings pattern shows alternating beats and misses, with Q2 2025 EPS of $4.88 beating the $4.40 estimate, and Q1 2025 EPS of $4.65 falling short of the $4.75 forecast. Revenue growth remained positive across all four quarters, moving from $18.105 billion in Q4 2024 to $22.206 billion in Q1 2025 before moderating to $21.384 billion in Q3 2025. Analysts noted that the bundled auto‑home strategy may help offset margin pressures, but the widened combined ratio suggests underwriting costs remain a concern. The earnings call highlighted improvements in loss‑per‑claim and combined ratio metrics, signaling potential for future profitability improvements.
What are the revenue trends for Progressive (PGR) over the past four quarters?
Revenue for PGR has climbed from $18.105 billion in Q4 2024 to $22.206 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 22 % year‑over‑year jump. The following quarter, Q2 2025, saw revenue dip to $20.076 billion, a 10 % decline from Q1, but still above the Q4 2024 level. Q3 2025 revenue rebounded to $21.384 billion, marking a 6 % increase over Q2 and a 18 % rise versus Q4 2024. This pattern of growth followed by a modest pullback suggests the company is consolidating gains while managing underwriting risk. If the trend continues, revenue could approach the $22 billion mark again by the end of the fiscal year.
What is the consensus analyst price target for Progressive (PGR)?
Analysts currently project a mean target price of $229.78 for PGR, with a high of $308 and a low of $198, reflecting a range of optimism across the field. The consensus split shows 11 buy recommendations, 19 holds, and only 1 sell, indicating a majority of analysts view the stock favorably. The current price of $215.10 sits below the mean target, implying potential upside if the company maintains its revenue trajectory and improves margin metrics. The high target of $308 represents a 43 % premium to the current level, while the low target of $198 is 8 % below the present price. These figures suggest that, while there is room for appreciation, investors should remain cautious of the combined‑ratio trend that could temper earnings growth.
How does Progressive (PGR) manage its underwriting and loss ratios?
PGR has focused on tightening its loss‑per‑claim metric, reporting a combined ratio of 87.1 last quarter, which is slightly above the industry average but still within a manageable range. The company’s bundled auto‑home program has helped reduce loss costs by encouraging multi‑policy holders to purchase complementary coverage, thereby lowering exposure to high‑severity claims. Underwriting discipline is evident in the steady decline of the loss ratio from 84.5 % in Q4 2024 to 83.2 % in Q1 2025, indicating improved pricing and risk selection. However, the recent widening of the combined ratio suggests that rising claim costs or adverse weather events may be eroding gains. Management has indicated plans to further refine pricing models and invest in loss‑control initiatives to sustain underwriting profitability.
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