DailyIQ
DailyIQ
Last updated1 minute ago

TLN·Talen Energy Corporation

$316.23
-10.55 (-3.23%)
Pre-Market
High
$330.00
Open
$319.26
Market Cap
13.76B
52W High
$449.85
Low
$311.00
P. Close
$316.23
P/E
-
52W Low
$279.77
Fwd P/E
11.42
DailyIQ Est.
$480.27
Inst. Own.
68.8%
Short Interest
10.03%
Days to Cover
3.1
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Nov 3, 2026tone +2.9 vs prior release · 57 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
23
BEARISH
News Sentiment
60
BULLISH
On Nov 5, Alluvial Capital released its Q3 2026 investor letter, in which it named Talen Energy (TLN) as a top holding, citing the company’s robust balance sheet and steady cash flows. The letter noted that Talen’s independent power production and infrastructure assets are well positioned to benefit from rising U.S. power demand. Analysts highlighted the exposure as a long‑term tailwind, suggesting potential upside for TLN’s valuation. The commentary did not indicate any immediate catalysts or earnings surprises, but it reinforced confidence in the company’s growth trajectory. The letter’s focus on long‑term upside was the sole development reported for the day.
LOW TARGET
$307 -6.4%
1 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$453 +38.0%
15 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$560 +70.7%
11 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$307.00 - $560.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
4/18/3/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$480.27 (+46.4%)
Sector
Utilities
Industry
Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Symbol
TLN
Description
Talen Energy Corporation is a US-based independent power producer that generates and sells electricity and related services within wholesale power markets. The company's core business revolves around operating a diverse portfolio of power plants, including nuclear, fossil fuel, oil, natural gas, and coal facilities. With a substantial infrastructure footprint, Talen Energy owns and manages approximately 10.7 gigawatts of power generating capacity. This extensive infrastructure allows the company to supply a significant amount of power to the markets it serves. Incorporated in 2014, Talen Energy is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and is a key player in the energy sector.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
357,219 shares
$116.2M
Nutt Terry LPresident
Option Exercise20,780 shares2026-07-15
Nutt Terry LPresident
Tax Withholding3,271 shares2026-07-15
Nutt Terry LPresident
Option Exercise8,312 shares2026-07-15
ABBAS GIZMAN I-
Sell2,600 shares2026-06-15
McFarland Mark AllenChief Executive Officer
J260,335 shares2026-06-08
66/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✕Negative net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
-8.7%
Revenue CAGR
-10.9%
Current Ratio
1.28x
Debt / Equity
6.23x
Return on Equity
-20.0%
Earnings Summary
In the most recent quarter, Q3 2026, Talen reported EPS of $5.65 versus an estimate of $9.09, falling short of consensus while revenue of $1.327 billion beat the $1.262 billion forecast, reflecting higher power prices and increased generation volumes. Compared to Q2 2026, where EPS of $2.37 trailed the $3.39 estimate and revenue of $747 million fell short of the $808 million estimate, the company demonstrated a rebound in top-line performance but continued to miss earnings expectations. Over the past four quarters, Talen has posted a mix of beats and misses: revenue exceeded estimates in Q4 2025 and Q3 2026, yet EPS fell short in Q3 2026 and Q2 2026, indicating volatility in profitability despite a growing top line. Historically, the company has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory, with 2025 Q4 revenue rising to $749 million from $467 million in Q4 2024, while EPS swung from a positive $4.38 to a negative $0.20 in the same period, underscoring inconsistent earnings performance. Recent news highlights include the November 3, 2026 earnings call where adjusted EBITDA rose to $669 million and adjusted free cash flow to $433 million, driven by higher power prices; the company also announced a $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program, expanding its total program to $3 billion through 2028.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-1.60$1.42$4.45$7.47$10.49Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$6.99 - -
Q3'26$9.09$5.65-37.9%
Q2'26$3.39$2.37-30.0%
Q4'25$4.33$4.38+1.2%
Q4'24$-0.20$0.47+331.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$336M$620M$905M$1.2B$1.5BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.3B - -
Q3'26$1.3B$1.3B-1.2%
Q2'26$809M$747M-7.6%
Q4'25$660M$749M+13.5%
Q4'24 - $467M -

Market Data

TLN Stock Snapshot

BEARISH23/100
$330.00+$13.80 (4.4%)
Market cap
13.76B
Day range
$311.00 – $330.00
News sentiment
60/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$452.62 (+37.2%)
Consensus
Buy · 27 analysts
52-week range+18.0% off low · -26.6% from high
$279.77$449.85
Price $330.00 DailyIQ Est. $480.27

Talen Energy Corporation is trading in the lower half of its 52-week range with momentum still pointing lower. In Utilities, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into TLN?

RICH

At today's price, Talen Energy Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 27.1% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 8.79% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at -20.1% a year, so the market is asking for 47.2 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis TLN looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
27.1%
Growth trend
-20.1%
Growth gap
+47.2 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
8.79%
Beta
1.43

Behaviour On Record

What TLN's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
65.9% 77th pct
Below its peak
-28.1%
vs 200-day average
-8.1%
Up days (1y)
53%

Talen Energy Corporation is currently running 65.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TLN's own 3 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 77th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 49.1%.

TLN is trading -28.1% below its running peak. Across 3 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -33.8%, and the deepest was -36.1% in 2026. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -8.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 9th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TLN closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TLN has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 119 of 859 sessions (13.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +43.8% and -6.9%.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, TLN moved an average of 3.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.5% and a largest of -8.5%.

All figures computed from 860 daily closes between 2023-06-05 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TLN's own 3-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TLN's sector?

Talen Energy Corporation sits in the Utilities sector, currently ranked 6th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#6 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
64

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TLN?

CallsPuts

For Talen Energy Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-11-06, 0 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.60), with at-the-money implied volatility around 25.0%.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-06)
0.60
ATM implied volatility
25.0%
Total open interest
1,920

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect TLN to earn?

Analysts expect Talen Energy Corporation to earn $22.87 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $36.26 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$7.46$6.62 to $8.292$1.29B7
Dec 2026$7.22$6.72 to $7.722$1.26B7
Mar 2027$6.09$4.70 to $7.583~$1.07B-
Jun 2027$7.17$4.35 to $11.913~$1.26B-
Sep 2027$10.12$5.19 to $13.393--
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$22.87$16.99 to $25.965$4.44B14
Dec 2027$32.13$27.70 to $37.065$5.27B14
Dec 2028$36.26$23.82 to $42.314~$6.36B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TLN?

Evercore ISI Group most recently reiterated its rating on Talen Energy Corporation to Outperform on Nov 4, 2026 with a price target of $515 (from $499). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Evercore ISI Group: Outperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Nov 4, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$499 → $515
Oct 28, 2026CIBCMaintainedOutperformer$499 → $493
Oct 28, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$501 → $479
Oct 27, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$408 → $387
Oct 22, 2026TD CowenInitiatedBuy$475
Oct 22, 2026HSBCInitiatedBuy$444
Oct 21, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$514 → $504
Oct 16, 2026CIBCInitiatedOutperformer$499
Sep 18, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$503 → $514
Aug 24, 2026MizuhoInitiatedOutperform$405
Aug 21, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$508 → $503
Aug 6, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$482 → $501

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Talen Energy Corporation's latest earnings release say?

Filed Nov 3, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone59.2/ 100+2.9 vs prior release
Hedging words1.29per 100 words-0.48 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–73

Most important lines

  1. 1

    With nine months behind us, we are reaffirming the midpoint and are narrowing the range of our 2026 guidance.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    On October 1, 2026, Talen closed on a capacity monetization agreement to sell rights to approximately $1.5 billion in future PJM capacity cash flows for the 2027/2028 and 2028/2029 PJM capacity years and used the net proceeds of $1.3 billion to fund the ASR.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    This quarter, we increased our share repurchase program to $3.0 billion, including a $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program.

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

TLN peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about TLN?

TLN fell 11.9% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 0 and 100 from Oct 6 to Oct 19, then dropped to 35 on Oct 21.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$350Oct 6: tone 50Oct 7: tone 72Oct 8: tone 0Oct 9: tone 30Oct 12Oct 13: tone 44Oct 14Oct 15: tone 97Oct 16: tone 70Oct 19: tone 100Oct 20Oct 21: tone 35Oct 22: tone 74Oct 23Oct 26Oct 27: tone 56Oct 28: tone 29Oct 29Oct 30Nov 2: tone 50Nov 3: tone 56Nov 4: tone 65Nov 5: tone 69Nov 6Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 6 +11.5%
  2. Oct 14 -8.7%
  3. Oct 22 -8.6%same day: HSBC Initiates Coverage On Talen Energy with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $444.3

Technical analysis

How strong is TLN's momentum right now?

On the daily chart TLN ranks at the 23rd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling TLN?

88 of the 169 tracked managers added to TLN in their latest 13F and 75 trimmed. Together they own 68.8% of the company, worth $11.0B. BlackRock and Vanguard Portfolio Management alone hold 15.5%.

88adding75trimming6unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of TLN
  1. $1.7B positionAdded 6.5% last quarter
  2. $832.7M positionAdded 3.4% last quarter
  3. $789.1M positionAdded 0.3% last quarter
  4. $594.2M positionAdded 30.4% last quarter
  5. $530.2M positionAdded 2.7% last quarter
  6. $526.4M positionTrimmed 11.5% last quarter
  7. $366.5M positionAdded 4.8% last quarter
  8. $300.3M positionTrimmed 0.7% last quarter
  9. $291.3M positionTrimmed 2.2% last quarter
  10. $226.2M positionTrimmed 38.9% last quarter
Full holdings history

Discover more

How has TLN done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, TLN returned −20.0%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 13 did better, led by RSG at +24.7%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−40%−20%0%+20%+40%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6RSG +24.7%TLN −20.0%GEV −28.8%