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TLN·Talen Energy Corporation

$292.29
-1.05 (-0.36%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$292.35+0.06 (+0.02%)
High
$299.22
Open
$294.08
Market Cap
14.01B
52W High
$451.28
Low
$288.59
P. Close
$292.29
P/E
-
52W Low
$279.77
Fwd P/E
9.50
DailyIQ Est.
$487.86
Inst. Ownership
51.5%
Short Interest
5.08%
Days to Cover
2.6
Technical Score (1D)
27
SELL
News Sentiment
41
BEARISH
Analysts have flagged that Talen Energy’s recent trading softness may indicate the stock is now trading below its fair value after a three‑year surge. The valuation concern stems from the company’s heavy reliance on power‑generation sales, which directly influence its cash‑flow conversion. A tighter price‑to‑sales ratio relative to peers suggests that investors may be undervaluing the firm’s revenue base. This mild headwind could dampen short‑term upside, making the next 1–10 trading days more volatile for TLN. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming earnings release to see if cash‑flow conversion improves or if sales growth stalls. Monitoring the company’s power‑generation output will also help gauge whether revenue fundamentals remain solid. If the company can demonstrate stable or growing sales, the valuation question may ease, potentially lifting the stock. Conversely, any decline in generation capacity or regulatory changes could reinforce the undervaluation narrative.
Earnings Summary
Talen Energy Corporation is an independent power producer operating a diverse portfolio of nuclear, fossil, and renewable plants, generating electricity for wholesale markets and supplying approximately 10.7 GW of capacity, placing it within the utilities sector. In Q4 2024, the company posted a positive EPS of $0.47 against an estimate of –$0.20, with revenue of $467 million, marking a turnaround from a prior negative estimate; subsequent quarters lack actual EPS data but projected earnings estimates show a steep upward trajectory from $3.26 in Q4 2025 to $7.37 in Q3 2026, with revenue estimates rising from $659 million to $1.35 billion. Historically, the firm has demonstrated a pattern of improving earnings outlooks, with analyst estimates moving from negative to positive territory, reflecting confidence in its asset base and market positioning. Recent news focuses on Amazon’s nuclear supply contract, which is expected to provide a predictable revenue stream and improve cash‑flow visibility, and on analyst upgrades from Mizuho and Morgan Stanley that highlight the company’s strong PJM market presence and capacity expansion; these developments suggest a potential uptick in earnings stability. Investors should watch for the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings release to see if the company meets or exceeds the high EPS estimates and to gauge any guidance on capital allocation or the impact of the Amazon contract, as well as monitor the outcome of the PJM capacity auction, which could materially influence future revenue and free‑cash‑flow projections.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.72$0.40$1.53$2.66$3.78Q4'24Q4'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'25$3.26 - -
Q4'24$-0.20$0.47+331.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$438M$501M$563M$626M$689MQ4'24Q4'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'25$660M - -
Q4'24 - $467M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

TLN Stock Snapshot

SELL27/100
$292.35+$0.06 (0.0%)
Market cap
14.01B
Day range
$288.59 – $299.22
News sentiment
41/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$460.59 (+57.5%)
Consensus
Buy · 25 analysts
52-week range+4.5% off low · -35.2% from high
$279.77$451.28
Price $292.35 DailyIQ Est. $487.86

Talen Energy Corporation is trading near its 52-week low with momentum still pointing lower. In Utilities, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into TLN?

CHEAP

At today's price, Talen Energy Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 22.1% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.45% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 57.5% a year, so the market is asking for 35.4 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis TLN looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
22.1%
Historical FCF CAGR
57.5%
Growth gap
-35.4 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
9.45%
Beta
1.44

Behaviour On Record

What TLN's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
39.4% 40th pct
vs 200-day average
-17.7%
Up days (1y)
53%

Talen Energy Corporation is currently running 39.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TLN's own 3 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 40th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 48.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

Price sits -17.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 1st percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TLN closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TLN has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 116 of 825 sessions (14.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +43.8% and -6.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 826 daily closes between 2023-06-05 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TLN's own 3-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TLN's sector?

Talen Energy Corporation sits in the Utilities sector, currently ranked 9th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#9 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
0

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TLN?

CallsPuts

For Talen Energy Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 3.22), with at-the-money implied volatility around 59.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±6.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $279.61–$318.52.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
3.22
ATM implied volatility
59.6%
Total open interest
1,113
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±6.5% ($279.61–$318.52)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TLN?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Talen Energy Corporation to Overweight on Sep 18, 2026 with a price target of $514 (from $503). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Morgan Stanley — Overweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 18, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$503 → $514
Aug 24, 2026MizuhoInitiatedOutperform$405
Aug 21, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$508 → $503
Aug 6, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$482 → $501
Jul 28, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$411 → $408
Jul 27, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$477 → $482
Jul 20, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$453 → $422
Jul 15, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Perform$463 → $470
Jun 18, 2026Goldman SachsInitiatedBuy$499
May 19, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$408 → $411
May 6, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$465 → $477
Apr 21, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$425 → $408

TLN Competitive Positioning

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is tracked alongside these names in Utilities - Independent Power Producers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

TLN is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.