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Last updated3 minutes ago

AEP·American Electric Power Company, Inc.

$124.50
-0.21 (-0.17%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$124.50+0.00 (+0.00%)
High
$125.50
Open
$124.18
Market Cap
67.89B
52W High
$140.58
Low
$123.99
P. Close
$124.50
P/E
21.61
52W Low
$105.70
Fwd P/E
18.19
DailyIQ Est.
$146.61
Inst. Ownership
2.8%
Short Interest
4.28%
Days to Cover
6.2
Technical Score (1D)
36
SELL
News Sentiment
42
BEARISH
The most recent development is Founders Fund’s purchase of 308,617 AEP shares, a $42.2 million stake that signals confidence that the AI boom will lift the company’s contracted load to 69 GW as hyperscalers seek reliable power for data centers. This move suggests that AEP’s transmission network across 11 states is viewed as capable of capturing new load, and traders should watch the next quarterly earnings for any lift in revenue from AI‑related contracts and for updates on grid capacity expansions. A week earlier, Bloom Energy secured a 1‑GW fuel‑cell agreement with AEP to power AI infrastructure and semiconductor sites, a deal that follows a 37 % jump in FY 2025 revenue to $2 billion and a $5 billion financing round with Brookfield; the partnership underscores growing demand for solid‑oxide fuel cells in high‑consumption data centers and supports Bloom’s expansion into high‑growth sectors. In contrast, Peter Thiel’s latest 13F filing omitted AEP from his top 10 AI stocks, flagging concerns that the company’s current capacity may be insufficient to meet rapid hyperscaler demand; this divergence signals uncertainty about AEP’s scalability and warrants monitoring of its capacity expansion plans and any regulatory or market signals that could accelerate or hinder its ability to serve large AI customers. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has trimmed its price target to $135 from $139, citing weaker earnings guidance and potential margin compression, while JPMorgan and Truist have similarly lowered targets, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising operating costs and regulatory pressures. These analyst downgrades suggest that, despite a solid dividend history, investors should keep an eye on AEP’s upcoming earnings release for updated guidance and commentary on cost control initiatives. The Ohio data‑center deal, which will see AEP deliver up to 4.25 GW of power with a $4.2 B transmission upgrade funded by partners, remains a key long‑term revenue driver and could offset some margin pressure if the company can secure the projected load. Finally, Carl Icahn’s 63.9 % stake reduction signals a reassessment of AEP’s valuation by a prominent shareholder; while the sale appears to be a portfolio rebalancing, it may influence investor perception and warrants monitoring for any subsequent changes in corporate strategy or board dynamics.
Earnings Summary
American Electric Power (AEP) is a vertically integrated utility serving 5.6 million customers across the United States, operating a diversified generation mix that includes coal, natural gas, renewables, and nuclear, and managing a 40,000‑mile transmission network. As a regulated electric utility, AEP’s performance is closely tied to commodity costs, regulatory approvals, and long‑term power contracts. In the most recent quarters, AEP posted revenue of $5.34 billion in Q4 2025 and $6.02 billion in Q1 2026, a 13.5 % year‑over‑year increase, while EPS rose from $1.19 to $1.64, a 37 % jump, beating consensus in both periods. The company’s earnings trend has accelerated since Q2 2025, when EPS was $1.43 and revenue $5.09 billion, indicating stronger profitability despite a modest revenue decline in Q2 2026 to $5.45 billion. Historically, AEP has delivered double‑digit revenue growth for the past four quarters, with EPS consistently beating estimates in three of the last four reports, underscoring a pattern of solid earnings execution amid rising fuel costs. Recent news highlights a $4.20 billion transmission upgrade to supply 4.25 GW to an Ohio data‑center project backed by NVIDIA and OpenAI, a development that could enhance long‑term revenue streams but also introduces regulatory and capital‑plan risks. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings call for updates on cost‑control initiatives, the status of the Ohio transmission upgrade, and any guidance on renewable portfolio expansion, as these factors will clarify whether AEP can sustain its dividend yield and support the new commercial load commitments.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.03$1.27$1.52$1.77$2.02Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.91 - -
Q2'26$1.51$1.36-10.0%
Q1'26$1.57$1.64+4.5%
Q4'25$1.14$1.19+4.3%
Q3'25$1.81$1.80-0.3%
Q2'25$1.27$1.43+12.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$4.9B$5.3B$5.8B$6.2B$6.7BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$6.5B - -
Q2'26$5.4B$5.4B+0.9%
Q1'26$5.6B$6.0B+7.9%
Q4'25$5.1B$5.3B+3.4%
Q3'25 - $6.0B -
Q2'25 - $5.1B -

Market Data

AEP Stock Snapshot

HOLD36/100
$124.50+$0.00 (0.0%)
Market cap
67.89B
P/E ratio
21.6
Day range
$123.99 – $125.50
News sentiment
42/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$144.00 (+15.7%)
Consensus
Hold · 30 analysts
52-week range+17.8% off low · -11.4% from high
$105.70$140.58
Price $124.50 DailyIQ Est. $146.61

Neither side has the upper hand on AEP right now, and the indicator set reflects that. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into AEP?

FAIR

At today's price, American Electric Power Company, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 5.0% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.00% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 4.7% a year, so the market is asking for 0.3 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis AEP looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth
5.0%
Historical FCF CAGR
4.7%
Growth gap
+0.3 pts
Verdict
FAIR
Discount rate (WACC)
6.00%
Beta
0.38

Behaviour On Record

What AEP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
19.8% 63rd pct
Below its peak
-9.8%
vs 200-day average
-1.7%
Up days (1y)
49%

American Electric Power Company, Inc. is currently running 19.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AEP's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 63rd percentile a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 17.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AEP is trading -9.8% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -13.3%, and the deepest was -32.9% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -1.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 26th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year AEP closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, AEP finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.3% and an average of -1.4%. Its strongest month historically has been October at +4.1% on average, its weakest August at -1.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AEP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 37 of 3,268 sessions (1.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.7% and -7.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, AEP moved an average of 1.6% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -0.2% and a largest of -2.8%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-05 and 2026-09-03, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AEP's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of AEP's sector?

American Electric Power Company, Inc. sits in the Utilities sector, currently ranked 8th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#8 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
50

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for AEP?

CallsPuts

For American Electric Power Company, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 13 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.72), with at-the-money implied volatility around 35.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.8% move by that expiry — a range of about $115.21–$129.37.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.72
ATM implied volatility
35.4%
Total open interest
21,183
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±5.8% ($115.21–$129.37)

AEP Competitive Positioning

American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) is tracked alongside these names in Utilities - Regulated Electric on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.