DailyIQ
Last updated3 minutes ago

VICI·VICI Properties Inc.

$23.72
-0.39 (-1.62%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$23.80+0.08 (+0.34%)
High
$24.18
Open
$24.04
Market Cap
27.01B
52W High
$33.01
Low
$23.71
P. Close
$23.72
P/E
9.77
52W Low
$23.72
Fwd P/E
7.93
DailyIQ Est.
$33.27
Inst. Ownership
3.6%
Short Interest
2.93%
Days to Cover
4.5
Technical Score (1D)
0
SELL
News Sentiment
59
BULLISH
VICI’s CFO announced that the REIT will forgo share buybacks in favor of higher‑yield loans and the recently announced Club Med acquisition, pushing the dividend yield to a record 7.64 % and a payout ratio of 91.33 %. The decision signals a shift toward capital deployment that prioritizes cash‑flow generation from the new acquisition rather than returning capital to shareholders, which should keep the REIT’s dividend stream stable for the next 1–10 trading days. The Club Med deal is described as a very attractive return driver, suggesting that the REIT expects the acquisition to add significant operating cash and potentially lift future earnings. Meanwhile, VICI shares slipped 1.71 % in the latest session, lagging the broader market despite a modest 1.67 % EPS increase and a 5.49 % revenue lift projected for the upcoming quarter. The decline appears to be a short‑term market reaction, as analysts note that guidance remains solid and the monthly decline of 6.98 % reflects only a mild headwind. The combination of a higher dividend yield and a focus on the Club Med acquisition should keep the REIT’s valuation anchored, but investors should watch the earnings release for any revisions to revenue or margin expectations that could confirm or challenge the projected upside. In the next few days, monitor the earnings call for confirmation of the Club Med integration timeline and any updates on loan portfolio performance, as these will directly influence the REIT’s cash‑flow outlook and dividend sustainability.
Earnings Summary
VICI Properties Inc. is a diversified real‑estate investment trust that owns a portfolio of high‑profile gaming, hospitality, wellness, and entertainment destinations, including Caesars Palace and MGM Grand, under long‑term triple‑net leases. The company operates in the experiential real estate sector, providing stable income streams from a mix of gaming and non‑gaming assets across the United States and Canada. In the most recent quarters, VICI’s earnings per share (EPS) rose from $0.5146 in Q1 2025 to $0.82521 in Q2 2025, a 60% increase, while revenue climbed from $984.2 million to $1.001 billion, a 1.8% rise; both figures beat analyst expectations, with EPS surpassing estimates in all four of the last four quarters. Historically, the REIT has shown a steady YoY revenue growth trajectory, with revenue increasing from $976.1 million in Q4 2024 to $1.0085 billion in Q3 2025, a 3.4% year‑over‑year gain, and EPS consistently beating consensus, though the most recent Q4 2025 EPS of $0.60 fell short of the $0.698 estimate, indicating a slight deceleration. Recent news highlights a 6.8% dividend increase and a $1.75 billion senior notes offering that was priced near par, reinforcing the company’s cash‑flow strength and extending its debt maturity profile to 2036; analysts note that the dividend hike and robust balance sheet may support the stock’s valuation despite a recent 8.68% share price decline. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings release for guidance on AFFO and any commentary on lease renewal activity, as well as potential cost pressures, to assess whether the REIT can sustain its income profile and support the dividend increase in the next quarter.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.57$0.64$0.71$0.79$0.86Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.72 - -
Q2'26$0.71$0.62-12.7%
Q1'26$0.72$0.61-14.9%
Q4'25$0.70$0.60-14.0%
Q3'25$0.69$0.71+3.4%
Q2'25$0.70$0.83+17.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$990M$1.0B$1.0B$1.1B$1.1BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.1B - -
Q2'26$1.1B$1.1B-0.3%
Q1'26$1.0B$1.0B-1.6%
Q4'25$1.0B$1.0B-1.6%
Q3'25 - $1.0B -
Q2'25 - $1.0B -

Market Data

VICI Stock Snapshot

SELL0/100
$23.80+$0.08 (0.3%)
Market cap
27.01B
P/E ratio
9.8
Day range
$23.71 – $24.18
News sentiment
59/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$32.25 (+35.5%)
Consensus
Buy · 34 analysts
52-week range+0.3% off low · -27.9% from high
$23.72$33.01
Price $23.80 DailyIQ Est. $33.27

VICI is on the weaker side of its setup, with little confirmation for a reversal yet. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Behaviour On Record

What VICI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
15.6% 21st pct
Below its peak
-33.2%
vs 200-day average
-14.5%
Up days (1y)
46%

VICI Properties Inc. is currently running 15.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against VICI's own 9 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 21st percentile unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 21.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

VICI is trading -33.2% below its running peak. Across 8 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -18.4%, and the deepest was -60.2% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -14.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 2nd percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year VICI closed higher on 46% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 9 years of records, VICI finished the month higher 3 of 9 times, with a median return of -2.1% and an average of -3.3%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +6.3% on average, its weakest March at -5.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: VICI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 124 of 2,193 sessions (5.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.1% and -10.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, VICI moved an average of 0.9% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.0% and a largest of -2.6%.

All figures computed from 2,194 daily closes between 2017-10-18 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against VICI's own 9-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of VICI's sector?

VICI Properties Inc. sits in the Real Estate sector, currently ranked 8th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#8 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
40

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for VICI?

CallsPuts

For VICI Properties Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 3.51), with at-the-money implied volatility around 21.5%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.6% move by that expiry — a range of about $22.83–$25.55.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
3.51
ATM implied volatility
21.5%
Total open interest
5,984
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±5.6% ($22.83–$25.55)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on VICI?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on VICI Properties Inc. to Equal-Weight on Sep 15, 2026 with a price target of $29 (from $31). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Morgan StanleyEqual-Weight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 15, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$31 → $29
Sep 2, 2026MizuhoMaintainedNeutral$30 → $27
Sep 1, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$27 → $26
Aug 10, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$34 → $32
Jul 22, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$34 → $31
Jul 15, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$29 → $27
Jul 8, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$38 → $31
Jun 25, 2026RBC CapitalInitiatedSector Perform$29
Jun 18, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Perform$32 → $29
May 12, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Perform$30 → $32
Apr 21, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$33 → $34
Mar 11, 2026MizuhoDowngradeOutperform → Neutral$30