ITW·Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

21.8% 66th pct

Below its peak

-10.1%

vs 200-day average

+0.1%

Up days (1y)

53%

Illinois Tool Works Inc. is currently running 21.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ITW's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 66th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 18.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ITW is trading -10.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -14.8%, and the deepest was -37.8% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +0.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 30th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year ITW closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, ITW finished the month higher 9 of 14 times, with a median return of +3.7% and an average of +3.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.8% on average, its weakest March at -1.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ITW has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 93 of 3,268 sessions (2.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.4% and -10.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, ITW moved an average of 2.0% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +1.3% and a largest of +3.5%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ITW's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.