JCI|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $1.58 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $1.52 | $1.42 | -6.8% |
| Q2'26 | $1.28 | $1.19 | -7.0% |
| Q1'26 | $1.11 | $0.89 | -20.1% |
| Q3'25 | $1.20 | $1.26 | +4.7% |
| Q2'25 | $1.01 | $1.05 | +3.6% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $7.1B | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $6.5B | $6.6B | +1.3% |
| Q2'26 | $6.4B | $6.1B | -4.4% |
| Q1'26 | $6.1B | $5.8B | -4.5% |
| Q3'25 | - | $6.4B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $6.1B | - |
JCI|Monthly Returns
Market Data
JCI Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 85.09B
- P/E ratio
- 23.8
- Day range
- $140.48 – $143.52
- News sentiment
- 68/100 · Bullish
- Analyst target
- $164.05 (+14.5%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 28 analysts
Momentum has flattened on JCI, leaving the next move dependent on news rather than the chart. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into JCI?
At today's price, Johnson Controls International plc needs to grow free cash flow about 29.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.13% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 3.2% a year, so the market is asking for 26.4 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis JCI looks priced above what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 29.6%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 3.2%
- Growth gap
- +26.4 pts
- Verdict
- RICH
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 9.13%
- Beta
- 0.99
Behaviour On Record
What JCI's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 31.8% 83rd pct
- Below its peak
- -9.5%
- vs 200-day average
- +3.6%
- Up days (1y)
- 53%
Johnson Controls International plc is currently running 31.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against JCI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 83rd percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 22.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
JCI is trading -9.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -20.6%, and the deepest was -44.6% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.
Price sits +3.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 48th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year JCI closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.
On September specifically: over 13 years of records, JCI finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.5% and an average of -1.8%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +3.7% on average, its weakest March at -2.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: JCI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 128 of 3,267 sessions (3.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.8% and -7.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
Across the last 3 dated reports on file, JCI moved an average of 3.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +2.8% and a largest of -3.9%.
All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-18 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against JCI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of JCI's sector?
Johnson Controls International plc sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #11 of 11
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 40
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on JCI?
Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Johnson Controls International plc to Overweight on Sep 2, 2026 with a price target of $180 (from $175). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- Morgan Stanley — Overweight
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
JCI Competitive Positioning
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