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JCI·Johnson Controls International plc

$143.26
+2.20 (+1.56%)
After Hours
High
$143.52
Open
$141.05
Market Cap
85.09B
52W High
$157.06
Low
$140.48
P. Close
$143.26
P/E
23.77
52W Low
$103.12
Fwd P/E
23.23
DailyIQ Est.
$168.31
Inst. Ownership
31.7%
Short Interest
1.72%
Days to Cover
3.6
Technical Score (1D)
50
NEUTRAL
News Sentiment
68
BULLISH
Johnson Controls International’s most recent update is a modest $0.40 quarterly dividend approval, a routine payout that does not alter its guidance or capital‑allocation plans, so the next ten trading days should see no immediate earnings‑driven price move. The company’s Q3 2026 earnings call, released 1006.5 hours ago, revealed a record $21 billion backlog and a 35 % year‑over‑year EPS jump, underscoring sustained demand for its data‑center solutions and reinforcing its profitability trajectory. This backlog growth signals that customers are locking in new contracts, which could support revenue expansion in the coming quarters; traders should watch the forthcoming revenue and margin guidance for confirmation. Earlier in the year, a 15‑year average annual return of 17.68 % highlighted JCI’s long‑term outperformance, suggesting that the firm’s capital allocation remains disciplined and that its building‑technology focus continues to generate value. The company’s recent launch of an Absorption Chiller Reference Design Guide, announced 936.7 hours ago, positions JCI to capture up to $18 billion in new revenue from waste‑heat conversion, potentially boosting its data‑center portfolio and expanding its smart‑building footprint. This initiative could drive demand for HVAC and energy‑management products, so monitoring data‑center operator adoption and industry conference coverage will be key. Meanwhile, several research houses have raised price targets—Morgan Stanley to $180, Rothschild & Co Redburn to $171, and Bernstein to $190—while maintaining buy or outperform ratings, indicating consensus bullishness on earnings momentum and product mix. The only recent uncertainty stems from insider sales: a director sold 3,300 shares and another insider offloaded 23,400 shares, which may signal routine rebalancing but could also hint at shifting confidence; watching subsequent insider activity will clarify sentiment. Finally, the sector’s exposure to construction cycles and raw‑material cost volatility remains a risk factor, so upcoming construction spending data and interest‑rate moves should be tracked to gauge potential demand dampening.
Earnings Summary
Johnson Controls International (JCI) is a global provider of building solutions, delivering HVAC, security, fire protection, and integrated services that enhance building performance and occupant safety across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and other markets. Operating in the building products & equipment sector, JCI positions itself as a key player in the smart‑building industry, focusing on energy efficiency and operational optimization. In the most recent quarters, JCI posted a steady upward trajectory: Q4 2024 revenue rose to $5.43 billion, and EPS of $0.64 beat the $0.59 estimate; Q1 2025 revenue climbed to $5.68 billion with EPS of $0.82 versus a $0.80 estimate; Q2 2025 revenue reached $6.05 billion and EPS $1.05 beat the $1.01 estimate; Q3 2025 revenue hit $6.44 billion with EPS $1.26 versus $1.20. The company has consistently outperformed earnings expectations in the last four quarters, while revenue growth has accelerated from 4.5% in Q4 2024 to 6.4% in Q3 2025. Historically, JCI has maintained a YoY revenue growth of roughly 5–6% over the past three years, with EPS growth outpacing revenue in most periods; the firm has delivered beats in 7 of the last 8 quarters, underscoring a resilient earnings profile even as raw‑material cost volatility and construction cycle fluctuations pose risks. Recent news highlights a routine $0.40 quarterly dividend and a Q2 revenue beat of 1.9%, driven by higher‑margin installation services and rising demand for energy‑efficient building materials; Morgan Stanley and Bernstein upgrades to $180 and $190 price targets reflect renewed confidence in JCI’s momentum. Investors should watch the upcoming Q3 guidance for revenue and margin targets, any updates on capital‑allocation decisions, and macro indicators such as construction spending and interest‑rate movements, as these factors will shape near‑term demand for JCI’s commercial building products and services.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.79$1.01$1.23$1.46$1.68Q2'25Q3'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.58 - -
Q3'26$1.52$1.42-6.8%
Q2'26$1.28$1.19-7.0%
Q1'26$1.11$0.89-20.1%
Q3'25$1.20$1.26+4.7%
Q2'25$1.01$1.05+3.6%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$5.6B$6.0B$6.4B$6.9B$7.3BQ2'25Q3'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$7.1B - -
Q3'26$6.5B$6.6B+1.3%
Q2'26$6.4B$6.1B-4.4%
Q1'26$6.1B$5.8B-4.5%
Q3'25 - $6.4B -
Q2'25 - $6.1B -

Market Data

JCI Stock Snapshot

HOLD50/100
$143.30+$0.04 (0.0%)
Market cap
85.09B
P/E ratio
23.8
Day range
$140.48 – $143.52
News sentiment
68/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$164.05 (+14.5%)
Consensus
Buy · 28 analysts
52-week range+39.0% off low · -8.8% from high
$103.12$157.06
Price $143.30 DailyIQ Est. $168.31

Momentum has flattened on JCI, leaving the next move dependent on news rather than the chart. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into JCI?

RICH

At today's price, Johnson Controls International plc needs to grow free cash flow about 29.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.13% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 3.2% a year, so the market is asking for 26.4 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis JCI looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
29.6%
Historical FCF CAGR
3.2%
Growth gap
+26.4 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
9.13%
Beta
0.99

Behaviour On Record

What JCI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
31.8% 83rd pct
Below its peak
-9.5%
vs 200-day average
+3.6%
Up days (1y)
53%

Johnson Controls International plc is currently running 31.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against JCI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 83rd percentile elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 22.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

JCI is trading -9.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -20.6%, and the deepest was -44.6% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +3.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 48th percentile close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year JCI closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, JCI finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.5% and an average of -1.8%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +3.7% on average, its weakest March at -2.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: JCI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 128 of 3,267 sessions (3.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +8.8% and -7.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, JCI moved an average of 3.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +2.8% and a largest of -3.9%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-18 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against JCI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of JCI's sector?

Johnson Controls International plc sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
40

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for JCI?

CallsPuts

For Johnson Controls International plc's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 0 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.69), with at-the-money implied volatility around 56.5%.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.69
ATM implied volatility
56.5%
Total open interest
17,995

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on JCI?

Morgan Stanley most recently reiterated its rating on Johnson Controls International plc to Overweight on Sep 2, 2026 with a price target of $180 (from $175). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Morgan StanleyOverweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 2, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$175 → $180
Aug 14, 2026BernsteinMaintainedOutperform$173 → $190
Jul 30, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$155 → $157
Jul 30, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$154 → $161
Jun 9, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$140 → $175
Jun 2, 2026RBC CapitalReiteratedSector Perform$154
Jun 2, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$170 → $180
May 27, 2026RBC CapitalReiteratedSector Perform$154
May 7, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$160 → $170
May 7, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$150 → $155
May 7, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$139 → $154
May 7, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$136 → $144

JCI Competitive Positioning

Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is tracked alongside these names in Building Products & Equipment on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.