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NKE·NIKE, Inc.

$35.53
-0.83 (-2.28%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$35.55+0.02 (+0.06%)
High
$36.68
Open
$36.27
Market Cap
53.94B
52W High
$76.97
Low
$35.50
P. Close
$35.53
P/E
17.36
52W Low
$35.50
Fwd P/E
15.52
DailyIQ Est.
$49.58
Inst. Ownership
40.0%
Short Interest
4.98%
Days to Cover
2.5
Technical Score (1D)
5
SELL
News Sentiment
40
BEARISH
Nike’s shareholders just voted against a proposal from Norway’s sovereign wealth fund to increase climate‑disclosure detail, a move that the board defended as giving management more control over target setting. The rejection removes a potential regulatory hurdle and frees the company to allocate resources toward product innovation and sales recovery, but it may dampen ESG sentiment among sustainability‑focused investors. In the same breath, Nike announced that Alexandre Arnault, a former LVMH executive with luxury‑brand experience, will join its board, a modest strategic addition that could strengthen the company’s premium positioning and digital strategy. Arnault’s presence signals a potential shift toward higher‑margin, high‑end offerings, yet analysts note that the impact is likely incremental and will not alter current financial guidance. UBS has cut its first‑quarter EPS estimate to $0.39 from $0.48, citing a slowdown in global sales growth, especially in the U.S., Europe, and China, and lowered its price target to $42, underscoring concerns over near‑term earnings. The combination of a relaxed disclosure stance, a luxury‑focused board addition, and a bearish earnings outlook suggests that Nike’s short‑term focus will remain on operational turnaround rather than aggressive sustainability commitments. Traders should watch for the company’s Q1 earnings release on Oct. 1 to see if sales trends validate the UBS downgrade, monitor any further ESG‑related investor pressure that could surface after the vote, and track how Arnault’s expertise translates into premium product launches or digital initiatives.
Earnings Summary
Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic and casual apparel and footwear, offering a broad portfolio that includes Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands, and extending into digital services and fitness apps to enhance consumer experience. Operating in the consumer cyclical sector, the company relies on a mix of owned retail, wholesale, and digital channels to maintain its competitive position. In the most recent two quarters, Nike reported EPS of $0.49 in Q3 2025 and $0.53 in Q4 2025, both beating estimates of $0.2656 and $0.37351 respectively, while revenue rose to $11.72 billion and $12.427 billion, up from $11.269 billion in Q1 2025 and $11.097 billion in Q2 2025; the company has consistently outperformed analyst expectations in the last four quarters, with EPS beats in three of those periods. Historically, Nike has shown a steady YoY revenue growth trajectory, with each quarter’s earnings surpassing prior year figures, and has maintained a pattern of revenue growth even when EPS margins have fluctuated, reflecting strong top‑line momentum. Recent news highlights a downgrade to Neutral by Baird citing slowing growth in key categories and margin pressure, and insider share sales by the Chief Legal Officer, which may signal tightening market sentiment; these developments underscore the importance of monitoring guidance and margin dynamics in the upcoming Q1 2027 earnings. Investors should watch for any adjustments to revenue guidance and margin expectations in the next earnings release, as well as any shifts in digital sales strategy or Chinese market performance, which have been identified as long‑term concerns that could influence near‑term growth. The company’s ability to sustain revenue expansion while managing cost pressures will be key to maintaining its earnings trajectory.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.06$0.20$0.33$0.47$0.60Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$0.13 - -
Q2'26$0.29$0.53+85.4%
Q4'25$0.37$0.53+41.9%
Q3'25$0.27$0.49+84.5%
Q2'25$0.12$0.14+13.5%
Q1'25$0.28$0.54+94.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$10.6B$11.1B$11.6B$12.2B$12.7BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$10.8B - -
Q2'26$11.2B$12.4B+10.7%
Q4'25 - $12.4B -
Q3'25 - $11.7B -
Q2'25 - $11.1B -
Q1'25 - $11.3B -

Market Data

NKE Stock Snapshot

SELL5/100
$35.55+$0.02 (0.1%)
Market cap
53.94B
P/E ratio
17.4
Day range
$35.50 – $36.68
News sentiment
40/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$48.21 (+35.6%)
Consensus
Hold · 47 analysts
52-week range+0.1% off low · -53.8% from high
$35.50$76.97
Price $35.55 DailyIQ Est. $49.58

The signals on NKE lean bearish, and the range position backs that up. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Consumer Cyclical tend to move together on rotation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into NKE?

CHEAP

At today's price, NIKE, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 0.0% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.05% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 6.2% a year, so the market is asking for 6.2 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis NKE looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
0.0%
Historical FCF CAGR
6.2%
Growth gap
-6.2 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
9.05%
Beta
0.94

Behaviour On Record

What NKE's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
24.4% 55th pct
Below its peak
-80.0%
vs 200-day average
-29.4%
Up days (1y)
43%

NIKE, Inc. is currently running 24.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NKE's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 55th percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 22.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

NKE is trading -80.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.1%, and the deepest was -50.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -29.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 1st percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year NKE closed higher on 43% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, NKE finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -2.1% and an average of -0.1%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.2% on average, its weakest March at -5.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: NKE has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 39 of 3,268 sessions (1.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.0% and -5.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NKE's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of NKE's sector?

NIKE, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#10 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for NKE?

CallsPuts

For NIKE, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 6 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.78), with at-the-money implied volatility around 34.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±4.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $34.66–$37.94.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.78
ATM implied volatility
34.4%
Total open interest
73,103
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±4.5% ($34.66–$37.94)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on NKE?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on NIKE, Inc. to Neutral on Sep 17, 2026 with a price target of $42 (from $48). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 5 downgrades, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
UBSNeutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
5
Net rating momentum
-5
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 17, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$48 → $42
Sep 15, 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainedMarket Perform$47 → $44
Sep 14, 2026BairdDowngradeOutperform → Neutral$70 → $44
Sep 14, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$45 → $39
Sep 9, 2026BMO CapitalInitiatedUnderperform$30
Aug 26, 2026Truist SecuritiesDowngradeBuy → Hold$47 → $42
Aug 25, 2026RBC CapitalReiteratedSector Perform$45
Aug 4, 2026JP MorganDowngradeNeutral → Underweight$47 → $40
Jul 1, 2026JefferiesMaintainedBuy$90 → $75
Jul 1, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$50 → $48
Jul 1, 2026Telsey Advisory GroupMaintainedMarket Perform$55 → $47
Jul 1, 2026BairdReiteratedOutperform$70

NKE Competitive Positioning

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is tracked alongside these names in Footwear & Accessories on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.