NKE·NIKE, Inc.
NKE|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $0.13 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $0.29 | $0.53 | +85.4% |
| Q4'25 | $0.37 | $0.53 | +41.9% |
| Q3'25 | $0.27 | $0.49 | +84.5% |
| Q2'25 | $0.12 | $0.14 | +13.5% |
| Q1'25 | $0.28 | $0.54 | +94.9% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $10.8B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $11.2B | $12.4B | +10.7% |
| Q4'25 | - | $12.4B | - |
| Q3'25 | - | $11.7B | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $11.1B | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $11.3B | - |
NKE|Monthly Returns
Market Data
NKE Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 53.94B
- P/E ratio
- 17.4
- Day range
- $35.50 – $36.68
- News sentiment
- 40/100 · Bearish
- Analyst target
- $48.21 (+35.6%)
- Consensus
- Hold · 47 analysts
The signals on NKE lean bearish, and the range position backs that up. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Consumer Cyclical tend to move together on rotation.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into NKE?
At today's price, NIKE, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 0.0% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.05% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 6.2% a year, so the market is asking for 6.2 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis NKE looks priced below what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 0.0%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 6.2%
- Growth gap
- -6.2 pts
- Verdict
- CHEAP
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 9.05%
- Beta
- 0.94
Behaviour On Record
What NKE's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 24.4% 55th pct
- Below its peak
- -80.0%
- vs 200-day average
- -29.4%
- Up days (1y)
- 43%
NIKE, Inc. is currently running 24.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NKE's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 55th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 22.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
NKE is trading -80.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.1%, and the deepest was -50.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.
Price sits -29.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 1st percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year NKE closed higher on 43% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.
On September specifically: over 13 years of records, NKE finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -2.1% and an average of -0.1%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.2% on average, its weakest March at -5.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: NKE has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 39 of 3,268 sessions (1.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.0% and -5.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NKE's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of NKE's sector?
NIKE, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #10 of 11
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 10
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on NKE?
UBS most recently reiterated its rating on NIKE, Inc. to Neutral on Sep 17, 2026 with a price target of $42 (from $48). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 5 downgrades, a net bearish lean.
- Latest action
- UBS — Neutral
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 5
- Net rating momentum
- -5
NKE Competitive Positioning
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